Recently, due to the lack of supply and demand, domestic urea prices have been relatively stable as a whole, and only a slight rise and fall in some areas has been adjusted. The latest quotation shows that the mainstream ex-factory reference of small and medium-sized particles in Shandong is 2300-2370 yuan, the mainstream ex-factory price of small particles in Henan is 2300-2340 yuan, the ex-warehouse price of small particles in Guangdong is about 2500 yuan, and the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Sichuan is 2280-2360 yuan.
On June 4, urea prices rose steadily and slightly, with some areas in Shandong rising 30 yuan, Shanxi rising 10-20 yuan, Henan rising slightly by 10 yuan, Ningxia rising 20 yuan, Liaoning and Heilongjiang rising 50 yuan/ton, Guangdong rising 30 yuan, and other regions as a whole remained stable.
At present, the demand side of the urea market is gradually entering the downward channel, agricultural demand with the end of the southern middle season rice and late season rice fertilization, temporarily come to an end, the north has entered the wheat harvest season, the main energy of farmers is on the wheat harvest, the new season of corn fertilization has also been shelved, agricultural demand is difficult to concentrate, and the support for urea prices has weakened. Industrial demand With the production of compound fertilizer and high nitrogen fertilizer entering the final stage, compound fertilizer is at a high price under the influence of high production costs, and the terminal goods are not smooth, which restricts the demand for compound fertilizer, and then restricts the demand for urea at the industrial level.
The supply of urea in the market has been further improved, and the current daily output of urea has reached 179,800 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons over the same period last year.
Demand is limited, goods are not smooth, production is gradually increasing, and urea prices can rise slightly against the trend. It is mainly due to the high number of pending orders of urea factories and the relatively low inventory of urea enterprises. Considering that there will be no significant changes in the supply and demand of urea in the short term, it is expected that the price of urea will continue to be high, and the local slight rise and fall will be adjusted.
Oil prices have dropped hard!
The latest news on domestic oil price adjustment: oil prices are falling more and more, from the beginning of 5 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton, two days after the weekend is 90 yuan / ton, this range has far exceeded the 50 yuan / ton adjustment red line, the next few days even if the international oil price stops falling and rises, the impact on the downward trend of oil prices will not be great. The drop of 90 yuan, the riders smiled after seeing it.
After the adjustment on June 4, the price of No. 92 gasoline was still at the "7 prefix", with the high-priced Hainan and Tibet being 9.11 yuan and 8.88 yuan respectively, and the low-priced Shaanxi and Xinjiang being 7.88 yuan and 7.8 yuan respectively. The price of No. 95 gasoline is around 8.48 yuan, with low-priced Shaanxi and Xinjiang being 8.33 yuan and 8.34 yuan respectively, and high-priced Hainan and Tibet being 9.68 yuan and 9.39 yuan respectively.
Domestic oil prices are expected to fall, but international crude oil prices have bottomed out in the last two days, rising slightly for two consecutive days, as of press time, Brent crude oil prices have rebounded to $81.26, and WTI U.S. crude oil prices have rebounded to $77.09.
The turning point of international oil prices from falling to rising is that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries issued a statement on June 2, local time, pointing out that 8 OPEC and OPEC oil producers decided to continue to voluntarily reduce production in the third quarter of this year, with a total production cut of 3.85 million barrels per day, of which 1.65 million barrels are 8 OPEC countries will extend the average daily production cut of 1.65 million barrels announced in April 2023 to the end of 2025, and the other 2.2 million barrels are the voluntary production cuts announced in November 2023 that will be postponed until the end of September this year. The extension of the production cut shows that OPEC+ is still trying to maintain the stability of the international crude oil market and maintain the high price of international crude oil.
There is still more than a week before the oil price adjustment time on June 13, and the United States has entered the peak fuel demand season, supporting the continuous rise of international crude oil prices. In terms of domestic demand, the demand for gasoline and diesel is expected to rise, considering the reduction of social inventories, oil prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall in this week's time.
Although the current domestic gasoline price is expected to drop by 90 yuan/ton, the current market is mostly a positive factor for oil prices, and international oil prices have begun to rise.