In 1999, he predicted that the Dow would be ridiculed at 40,000 points, and now he has a shocking prediction

Phoenix.com Finance

2024-05-27 14:33Posted on the official account of Beijing Phoenix Finance

David Elias

In 1999, David Elias predicted that the Dow would cross this milestone by 2016 at the latest.

Elias was ridiculed for being overly optimistic in his forecasts, which were "late but overdue". On May 16, the Dow Jones rose above 40,000 points for the first time during the session and closed above that level the next day. The index has since retreated, but is up about 4% so far this year and has more than doubled from its March 2020 lows.

The Wall Street Journal analysis pointed out that now he has another amazing prediction: the Dow will reach 67,000 points in the next 10 years.

"I'm 100 percent confident that AI is one of the things that makes me feel that way," he said.

本月初，David Elias收到一打棒球帽，前面印着“Dow 40,000”，后面印着“Elias”。

Elias's predictions proved overly optimistic, in part because he did not anticipate in advance major turning points such as the dot-com bust in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008, which hit the returns of the U.S. stock market for quite some time.

The 40,000-point prophecy led to years of ridicule on the Internet. After the dot-com bubble burst, the Dow fell by about 30% between January 2000 and September 2001, reaching a low of 8,235.81. Then, in March 2009, Lehman Brothers closed and the U.S. government bailed out other banks, and the Dow fell to a low of 6,547.05 points.

Elias isn't the only one trying to predict the timing of major market milestones but ultimately didn't get it right. James Glassman and Kevin Hassett, in their 1999 book "The Dow 36,000: A New Strategy to Profit from the Upcoming Stock Market Rally," also predicted that the Dow would cross the mark soon, but the Dow did not cross the 36,000 mark until 2021.

Here are some of Elias' other forecasts and actual results since 1999:

- Elias predicted earlier that Microsoft and Intel will join the Dow and lead the index higher. In the same year that his book was published, both stocks were included in the Dow. Today, Microsoft is the most valuable U.S. company, making its second-largest contribution to the Dow since it rose from 30,000 points in November 2020.

- He has said that the US stock index will outperform the world. Since the end of 1998, the Dow has risen more than 325%. By contrast, Japan's Nikkei rose about 180%, the Euro Stoxx 600 rose more than 85%, and the Hang Seng climbed about 90%.

- Elias also predicted rapid growth in Latin America over the next 20 years. Economies such as Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru and Colombia have been mired in recessions or other crises that have severely hampered their respective growth.

View original image 875K

• 

•