A strong fragrant family, do you want to make soy sauce wine?
1
"Fragrant old coffee" is fragrant?
603369. SH), 2023 will be extraordinary.
According to the financial report data, in 2023, Jinshiyuan will achieve an operating income of 10.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.07%, and a net profit of 3.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.30%.
This means that Jinshiyuan has become the second liquor company in Jiangsu with a revenue of more than 10 billion, and it has also officially entered the "10 billion camp" of A-share liquor.
What's more interesting is that Gu Xiangyue, chairman and general manager of Shiyuan, has just entered the 10 billion club, and has put forward a new goal: by 2025, go all out to enter the ranks of 15 billion wine companies.
Where does the confidence of this world come from? Part of it should come from past revenue growth. In 2018, the revenue of Jinshiyuan was less than 4 billion yuan, and 5 years later, the revenue of Jinshiyuan exceeded 10 billion, which is indeed quite fierce.
Part of it comes from marketing. According to the financial report data, from 2020 to 2023, Jinshiyuan's revenue will increase from 5.119 billion yuan to 10.098 billion yuan, an increase of 97%; During the same period, sales expenses increased from 875 million yuan to 2.097 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 140%.
However, it is difficult to sustain the high growth brought about by this high investment. Not only will it erode corporate profits, but it is also easy to attract questions about "relying on marketing".
In order to grow, Jinshiyuan once "took risks".
According to public information, Jinshiyuan, formerly known as Jiangsu Gaogou Distillery, founded the Jinshiyuan brand in 1996, focusing on the concept of "Chinese's love wine". From the perspective of products, Jinshiyuan has three major brands: Guoyuan, Jinshiyuan, and Gaogou Liquor, which focus on strong aromatic liquor.
As a well-known strong flavor liquor brand, Jinshiyuan made an unusual move in 2019: in August of that year, Jinshiyuan launched Guoyuan V9 Qingya Sauce Fragrance, which is known as "creating a precedent for China's Qingya sauce-flavored liquor".
Jinshiyuan defines Qingya sauce wine as "liquid diamond, Qingya sauce fragrance", and also sets the retail price of Guoyuan V9 Qingya sauce fragrance at 2299 yuan / bottle, directly catching up with Feitian Moutai.
It is understandable to want to break through in the high-end field, but the question is, why did Jinshiyuan, which started with strong fragrance, launch a thousand-yuan soy sauce wine product? It's like a basketball player, but he wants to play football, what do you want?
2
Is the sauce "pure or impure"?
The timing of the launch of Guoyuan V9 Qingya sauce fragrance is very interesting.
Since 2015, "dyeing sauce" has gradually become a trend. Aroma-based liquor companies either acquire or produce their own wine, and they all want to get a piece of the soy sauce wine.
Behind this is a huge stake. According to the research report, from 2017 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of soy sauce wine revenue reached 13.15%, much higher than the compound growth rate of 1.78% in the liquor industry as a whole. The "2021-2022 China Soy Sauce and Liquor Industry Development Report" also shows that the sales revenue of the national soy sauce and liquor industry will reach 190 billion yuan in 2021, accounting for 31% of the sales revenue of the liquor industry; The profit was 78 billion yuan, accounting for 45% of the profits of the liquor industry, nearly half of the country.
The year 2019, when Shiyuan made a move, was the outbreak period of "sauce fever".
It stands to reason that Jinshiyuan had neither experience in purchasing soy sauce wine nor a history of self-production. However, in the external publicity of Jinshiyuan, as early as 2001, it began to innovate the brewing process of sauce-flavored liquor, "after 18 years of reserves, it has created an elegant sauce-flavored liquor with a unique tasting experience". At that time, the value of the V9 was reflected in the process innovation, long fermentation cycle, and high-temperature koji-making.
But from the perspective of inside and outside the industry, Guoyuan V9 is not so "god".
One look at the "genes". Judging from the current industry pattern, the core production areas of soy sauce wine are in Sichuan and Guizhou, and there is a saying in the industry that "there is no good soy sauce wine without Chishui River". Behind this are differences in natural conditions such as climate, water quality, and bacterial cultures. Jinshiyuan is located in Gaogou Town, Lianshui County, Huai'an City, Jiangsu Province, which is also a good place to produce wine, but the local area has always been rich in aromatic liquor, lacking "soy sauce wine genes".
Second, look at the "standard". According to the data, compared with the national standard for sauce-flavored liquor, the current Guoyuan V9 Qingya Sauce Flavor only has the group standard implemented in April 2020, and the main drafting unit is the China Liquor Association and Jinshiyuan.
Can this kind of "one-of-a-kind" self-congratulatory play be widely recognized by the high-end market? According to the report of "the forefront of entrepreneurship", the owner of a Jiangsu tobacco hotel once revealed that (Guoyuan V9) This wine cannot be sold, and the actual price is about 1,000 yuan. Some consumers also complained: "Guoyuan V9 does not have the heaviness of the imaginary soy sauce wine, or the viscous feeling." ”
Third, look at the "process". Soy sauce wines generally take three to five years to cellar, while strong flavor wines can be stored for only 2-3 months at the earliest. According to Cai Xuefei, a liquor expert, Qingya sauce flavor is more of a flavor subdivision based on local ecological and technological advantages. Industry observer "Wine Zhouzhi" has a more detailed analysis:
Qingya sauce-flavored liquor is made of sorghum, wheat, water, etc. as raw materials, with high-temperature Daqu and bran koji as saccharification starters, fermented in mud-bottomed stone cellars or other containers, steamed and burned, continued dregs ingredients, high-temperature accumulation, high-temperature fermentation, solid-state distillation, graded liquor, long-term storage in pottery jars, and blended and filled. These are almost two different concepts from the well-known 12987 process (two feedings, nine cookings, eight fermentations, seven extractions, and storage and aging for more than three years).
Fourth, look at "production capacity". According to the announcement of Jinshiyuan in February 2022, the company added 20,000 tons of Qingya sauce production capacity, but the project will only enter the stage of gradual production from September 2023 to December 2026. Generally speaking, it takes 5 years for soy sauce wine to be marketed, and the release of Jinshiyuan's soy sauce wine production capacity will not be until after 2027 at the earliest.
In addition, according to the analysis of "Shidousan", the production of high-quality base liquor in Jinshiyuan is insufficient, and in order to fill the gap, purchasing base liquor may be the only way to think of it. After all, the prospectus of Jinshiyuan has disclosed that it has purchased base wine in 2011 and 2012, such as 2016.14 tons in 2012.
Purchasing base wine is nothing new, but for a wine company that wants to hit the high-end field, if the base wine is purchased, everyone's trust in its brand may be reduced.
Since genes, standards, processes and production capacity are different from traditional soy sauce wine, what is the purity of the "sauce flavor" of today's world?
3
When will "go out of Jiangsu"?
Today, Shiyuan can quickly enter the "10 billion club", mainly due to the base camp in Jiangsu.
Taking 2022 as an example, Jiangsu's liquor market size is nearly 60 billion yuan, which is considered a major liquor province. From the perspective of market share, Yanghe accounts for 31% and Jinshiyuan accounts for 19% - these two together account for half of the country.
▲Source: Soochow Securities
But competition in Jiangsu is just as fierce. To complete the next 15 billion goals, Jinshiyuan should pay more attention to outside the province.
And this is the "old and difficult" problem of this world. As early as 2014, Jinshiyuan put forward the strategic layout of national development, known as "intensive cultivation in the province and breakthrough outside the province".
Now that 10 years have passed, how has it worked? According to the financial report data, from 2018 to 2023, the income outside the province of Jinshiyuan will be 200 million yuan, 309 million yuan, 329 million yuan, 447 million yuan, 519 million yuan and 727 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding revenue will account for 5.4%, 6.4%, 6.46%, 7.02%, 6.61% and 7.2% respectively.
In 2014, the proportion of income outside the province reached about 5.3% - in the past 10 years, it has increased by less than 2 percentage points!
It is worth mentioning that there are 1,061 dealers in the country, of which 562 are dealers outside the province, accounting for 52.97%. Good guys, so many dealers, but only contribute 7.2% of revenue.
3 billion regional survival, 5 billion regional hegemony, and 10 billion running across the country - this is the classic discourse of the liquor industry. Looking at the "10 billion club" of wine companies, they have basically achieved a national layout, and there is little dependence on a single market.
For example, Yanghe, which is also rooted in Jiangsu, will only account for about 45% of its revenue in the province in 2023, and most of its income will come from outside the province. Another example is Shanxi Fenjiu, which has been fierce in the past few years, and in 2023, Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue outside the province will account for 61.94%.
▲Source: The company's research office
Out of Jiangsu, we still have to make a lot of efforts.
Objectively speaking, as an important component of the famous wine "three ditches and one river" in Jiangsu in the past, the background of the present world is also okay. Its strong aroma liquor has also won awards at the 4th National Wine Appraisal.
Because of this, people are even more puzzled: why do you want to rub the heat of the sauce fragrance? Many people always want to chase the outlet, but they don't know-
You think he's on the cusp, but he's actually on the cusp.