Goldman Sachs raised the CSI 300 target to 4,100 points, will it complete the upside target ahead of schedule this year?

Guo Shiliang

2024-05-21 08:07Published in Guangdong financial commentator, financial columnist

  Foreign institutions are optimistic about Chinese assets, Goldman Sachs raised the CSI 300 rise target to 4100 points, according to the latest point calculation of the CSI 300 index, there is still about 10% room from the 4100 point rise target. Goldman Sachs' upside target for the CSI 300 index was set at 3,900 points, and now it has been raised by 200 points, reflecting Goldman's more positive expectations for the CSI 300 index.

  As of May 20, the major market indices of the Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market have established a technical bull market.

  Taking the Hang Seng Index as an example, it has risen from 14,794 points at the beginning of this year to 19,706 points recently, and the cumulative maximum increase in the year has reached 33%. The Shanghai Composite Index, for example, rose from 2,635 points at the beginning of the year to 3,174 points, with a cumulative maximum increase of more than 20%.

  According to the definition of a technical bull market, the space for a market index to rise more than 20% from the year's lows can be established as a technical bull market. By this criterion, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index have met the conditions for a technical bull market.

  Looking at the CSI 300 Index, the market index rose from 3,108 points at the beginning of the year to a recent high of 3,703 points, with a cumulative increase of 19.2%, which is only one step away from a 20% increase. In other words, the CSI 300 index is also very close to the criteria of a technical bull market.

  Once the market index establishes a technical bull market, then the entire market is basically dominated by bulls, and the stock market officially enters a bullish market.

  Goldman Sachs raised its target for the CSI 300 index, perhaps recognizing the opportunity for A-shares to start a technical bull market. If the CSI 300 index can effectively stand in a technical bull market position that has rebounded more than 20% from the low, then the market's upside will also be released, and perhaps the market will meet Goldman Sachs' estimated upside target ahead of schedule this year.

  Looking at a set of data, more than half of the world's top 20 stock markets are hitting new highs. On the road to a new high in the world's major stock markets, A-share Hong Kong stocks are still at a historically low valuation, and the early adjustment is relatively sufficient.

  Goldman Sachs raised the CSI 300 target point, on the one hand, Goldman Sachs sees an opportunity to repair the valuation of Chinese assets, and on the other hand, Goldman Sachs recognizes the continued opening of the Chinese market. The performance of listed companies continues to recover, which means that the market valuation is also constantly optimized, and the investment attractiveness of the A-share market is also rising.

  The world's major stock markets are on the way to new highs or about to hit new highs, and the reason for this phenomenon may be related to the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market has gradually fulfilled the Fed's positive expectations of interest rate cuts. For the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, they have also begun to gradually realize their positive expectations, and the combination of the Fed's interest rate cut and market valuation advantages does have a good investment attraction for market funds.

  Up to now, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have entered a technical bull market, and the stock market has begun to shift from a short market to a long market. Among them, the average daily trading volume of the stock market continues to increase and the market liquidity is gradually improving, which is also a symbolic signal of the gradual strengthening of the stock market.

  Since February this year, foreign investors have accelerated the pace of investment in Chinese assets, and both northbound and southbound funds are showing signs of sustained large net inflows. Although the market has risen by more than 20% or 30% from the low point of the year, foreign investors have not slowed down the pace of buying, as prescient funds, they play a leading role in the market in the process of bottoming out and rebounding.

  As long as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are met, coupled with the expectation of continued improvement in China's economic fundamentals, 2024 will still be a year worth looking forward to for Chinese assets. Against the backdrop of record highs in the world's major stock markets, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets cannot be absent from this round of global bull market.

View original image 164K

• 

Personal opinion, for reference only