The East-West showdown is out! U.S. media announced the latest probability of winning the championship: Timberwolves 19.4% top 65.2%

Pot basketball

2024-05-20 14:38Posted in Fujian Sports Creators

On May 20, Beijing time, the two groups of semifinals in the east and west came to an end, and the Pacers defeated the Knicks 130-109 in the East. The Timberwolves, who were playing away in the West, once trailed by 20 points, finally defeated the Nuggets 98-90 to complete the biggest reversal in history, and advanced to the Western Conference finals with a score of 4-3.

With the Knicks and the defending champion Nuggets out, the two sets of matchups in the East-West Finals are released: Timberwolves vs. Mavericks, Celtics vs. Pacers.

The American media "The Analyst" also updated the latest probability of winning the championship for the first time through big data calculations so far this season, among which the Mavericks and Pacers, the two "dog" teams, were looked down upon, and the probability of winning the championship was less than 10%.

The Timberwolves, the super dark horse that eliminated the defending champion Nuggets, have a 19.4% chance of winning the championship, and the top Celtics have a whopping 65.2%.

Fourth place Pacers: 14.5% overall decision probability, 6.7% championship probability

As the biggest dark horse team in the East this season, the Pacers have been the underdog in the playoffs so far, and as a result, they have repeatedly proven themselves, beating the Bucks 4-2 in the first round to advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals, and beating the Knicks 4-3 in the semifinals.

Even so, it's not hard to see from both stats that the Pacers are still not considered a legitimate championship contender, as the Pacers faced serious injuries to their opponents in the first two rounds.

In the first round, Brother Alphabet and Lillard were injured, and in the second round, the core of the Knicks Brunson, Randle, Bojan, Anunoby and other cores were injured, resulting in the Pacers being seriously underestimated.

However, from a consequentialist perspective, luck itself is part of strength, and the Pacers' roster depth and rotation are indeed better.

At the same time, the Pacers have an ultra-high offensive ceiling, which gives them unlimited imagination in the series.

Facing the fully healthy Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, whether the Pacers can continue to cause upsets, and whether the core Haliburton can play the game impact will be the key.

Third place Maverick: 38% overall probability of decision, 8.7% probability of winning the championship

The Mavericks are in a similar situation to the Pacers, and the playoffs have not been favored so far, and the Mavericks once fell into passivity against the Big Four Clippers in the first round, and as a result, Leonard's injury changed the situation.

Facing the Thunder in the semifinals, the Mavericks relied on the experience of core players and the explosion of role players to get through.

The Mavericks will face the Timberwolves, who eliminated the Nuggets, and the team's front and interior advantages against the Clippers and Thunder in the first two rounds are gone.

At the same time, Doncic and Irving will face stronger defensive configuration and physical confrontation, but the individual ability and star level of the two are still the only advantages that the Mavericks can rely on.

No. 2 Timberwolves: 62% overall final probability, 19.4% championship probability

After the Timberwolves lost in G5, they won by 45 points in G6, and when they fell behind by 20 points in the tie-break, all the players achieved a big reversal and successfully eliminated the defending champion Nuggets to advance to the finals.

This makes the Timberwolves optimistic in the Western Conference finals, with a 62% probability of qualifying, such a result is not surprising, the Timberwolves' lineup configuration does comprehensively suppress the Mavericks.

With core players such as Edwards experiencing the baptism of semifinals and stealing, the Timberwolves will most likely be the team that will make it out of the West, and the 19.4% probability is obviously underestimated.

1st place Celtic: 85.5% overall probability of finals, 65.2% probability of winning the championship

The Celtics have been the favourites to win the title this season, and this has been the case for the past few seasons, because from the perspective of big data, the Celtics are indeed the best team with both offensive and defensive roster configurations.

But the problem is that the Celtics' core lacks the ability to solve at critical moments, whether it is Tatum, or Brown, Holiday or Boshen, they are not trustworthy in critical moments.

The Celtics exposed this problem in the first round, and when the game was dragged into the decisive moment, the Celtics even lost to the Heat without Butler.

Combined with the Timberwolves' performance against the Nuggets, as well as the finishing ability of Doncic and Irving, no matter who of the two teams makes it out of the West, as long as they can drag the game into a life-or-death moment, they will have an advantage in the finals series.

Of course, the Timberwolves are clearly the team that is more likely to drag the game into the deciding stages, so the probability of the Celtics leading the championship with a 65.2% break is obviously a bit overestimated.

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