This Friday, the property market ushered in a lot of benefits, four blockbuster policies were released at the same time, including the reduction of the down payment ratio for house purchases, the reduction of provident fund loan interest rates, the cancellation of the lower limit of mortgage interest rates, and the acquisition of inventory housing as affordable housing. In particular, the People's Bank of China announced on Friday afternoon that it would provide 300 billion yuan of affordable housing reloans to support the government's collection and storage behavior, which aroused widespread concern in society. So, why is destocking now a top priority for the current real estate recovery?
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According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, since April, the supply and demand of the market have been declining, making the total inventory further increase. On the one hand, due to the fact that the original Xiaoyangchun did not come in March, the market demand further shrank, which led to a new round of price reductions and a stronger wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. On the other hand, although second-hand housing transactions have been rebounding since last year, the number of rebounds cannot catch up with the number of houses listed for sale, and the number of second-hand houses listed in various places is hitting a new high.
Yi Chengdong, a professor at the School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics: At present, there is a rigid demand in the market, and there is a desire to buy a house, but because the sales volume and price are declining, they are still waiting and seeing. As the volume and price of transactions fall, developers will also experience difficulties in the capital chain. There is a downward tightening cycle in the market, and at this time, the government needs to adopt some policies to break the cycle and make the market stable and healthy.
On April 30 this year, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed for the first time that "it is necessary to combine the new changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market and the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, and coordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing". This is the first time in many years that the central government has once again put forward requirements for real estate destocking. The statistics obtained by the reporter from market institutions such as the E-House Research Institute also show that the contradiction of the current high inventory is not that real estate companies have supplied too many houses, but that the inventory digestion capacity has been at a low level, that is, sales are sluggish. According to the statistics of the E-House Research Institute, the inventory sales cycle of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities across the country is currently 25.3 months, while the reasonable sales cycle of new commercial housing should be 12 to 14 months.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute: These policies are directly related to the digestion of new houses, second-hand houses, etc., including the sentiment of the housing market, the sales status and capital status of real estate enterprises, etc., can have a very positive impact, and will have a positive effect on the promotion of the entire market.
Can "purchase instead of build" go to inventory?
Among the many blockbuster policies, we see a clear stipulation, that is, cities with a large inventory of commercial housing can order and purchase part of the commercial housing at a reasonable price as appropriate. This is known as the "buy instead of build" model, can this method speed up the digestion of inventory?
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Recently, a number of cities or regions have issued policies related to "purchase instead of construction" to encourage the acquisition of stock housing for affordable housing. For example, Hangzhou's Lin'an District recently said that it would acquire a number of commercial housing for public rental housing within the scope of Lin'an District, and Yuecheng District of Shaoxing purchased commercial housing in bulk for talent housing projects, while Nanjing said that it would appropriately renovate or acquire stock housing for affordable housing and revitalize the use of idle land and houses.
Judging from the current policies in various places, there are two main goals of "purchasing instead of building": one is to speed up the de-inventory of existing commercial housing, and the other is to help the establishment of a "white list" of the coordination mechanism for ensuring the delivery of buildings and real estate financing, so as to alleviate the financial dilemma of real estate enterprises. Experts said that by purchasing the stock of housing and changing it to affordable housing, it seems that the effect of killing multiple birds with one stone can be achieved at present.
Zhao Xiuchi, a professor at the School of Urban Economics and Public Administration, Capital University of Economics and Business: Therefore, the acquisition of stock commercial housing as affordable housing enables the developer's commercial housing to realize its value smoothly, on the other hand, it increases the supply of affordable housing, meets the needs of more insured families, and promotes the stable and healthy development of the real estate market with the two-wheel drive dual-track operation of commercial housing and affordable housing.
Experts said that the recent implementation of the policy of "purchasing instead of building" will undoubtedly bring a certain positive effect to the market in the next step, especially in the context of the property market regulation policy to "destocking", these measures can alleviate the financial pressure of some real estate companies and bring short-term stability to the property market. In the process of specific implementation in various places, the sustainability of the source of funds, as well as the operation and management ability of these commercial houses, are the key to testing the future effect of the policy.
Yi Chengdong, Professor, School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics: This policy should pay attention to the fact that China's local differences are very large, and different cities have different situations, that is, it is still necessary to implement policies according to the city.
What about idle and stock land?
In fact, before the release of this policy, the Ministry of Natural Resources had already issued a notice, requiring that the new land supply in various places should be combined with the local commercial housing de-conversion cycle and the revitalization of the stock scale, and the revitalization of the stock of land scale as an important basis for incremental supply. The "de-conversion cycle" actually refers to the sales cycle of commercial housing, and the de-conversion cycle of newly built commercial housing is generally calculated by dividing the stock of newly built commercial housing by the average monthly transaction volume in the previous 12 months.
With the further requirements of the relevant national policies, the Ministry of Natural Resources said that it is preparing to introduce policies and measures to properly dispose of idle land and revitalize the stock of land, and support local governments to properly dispose of the idle stock of residential land that has been transferred by recovering and acquiring as appropriate.
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Yi Chengdong, a professor at the School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics: The resumption of these idle lands is actually a way out for the developers who have taken these lands, so that the land assets they purchased in the early stage can be revitalized, so that these developers can withdraw from the market.
According to the plan of the Ministry of Natural Resources, in the future, on the one hand, idle land will be disposed of strictly in accordance with the law, and on the other hand, it will increase support for the revitalization and utilization of existing land. For example, enterprises are allowed to reasonably adjust planning conditions and design requirements in accordance with procedures to better meet market demand, or give full play to the role of the secondary market of land, support advance registration transfer and "transfer with mortgage", and encourage transfer or cooperative development.
Zhao Xiuchi, professor at the School of Urban Economics and Public Administration, Capital University of Economics and Business: This time, the policy specifically mentions that local governments will be supported to recover idle land at a reasonable price in accordance with the principle of purchasing on demand for affordable housing. It not only embodies the principle of marketization and rule of law, but also helps developers solve the dilemma of idle land and increases the supply of affordable housing.
Editor in charge: Zhang Qi