The prospects for peace in the Asia-Pacific region are becoming more and more unstable, and the most fundamental reason is the strategic shift of the United States to the Asia-Pacific region. If the United States puts its strategy in the region, it will exacerbate tensions in the region, such as the chaos in the Middle East and the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Recently, a U.S. think tank published a report titled "The United States, Japan, and South Korea Should Pursue Regional Stability and Avoid Military Escalation", which is worth paying attention to, pointing out that once a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, this conflict is likely to spill over, bringing about a chain reaction, and eventually evolve into a major melee in the Indo-Pacific region with 10 countries joining the Indo-Pacific region.
The report, published by the Quincy Institute, a U.S. think tank, pointed out that if a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the participating countries will be directly involved in China, the United States, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, India, Vietnam, Russia, North Korea and other countries, which will affect and affect the entire Indo-Pacific region. At the same time, a US think tank expressed its view that the current situation in the Taiwan Strait is becoming more and more tense, coupled with the joint efforts of the United States, Japan, and South Korea to tighten the containment of China, it is very likely that the DPP and Lai Qingde on the island will misjudge the situation and then seek independence.
Obviously, this move by the DPP and Lai Qingde will touch the mainland's red line, and if the DPP dares to take that step, then the mainland will inevitably initiate "armed reunification," and then the United States will be in a position to contain China, and it is very likely that the United States will directly intervene, and if the United States directly intervenes, and the United States may involve nine countries in the war, this local conflict will evolve into a world war.
The United States has always been arching fires all over the world, and has always been the world's number one power, and it is naturally not a fuel-efficient lamp in the Asia-Pacific region, and it is better at forming gangs and factions, which will certainly pull small groups down into the troubled waters of the Taiwan Strait, and it is the Taiwan card that the United States can best use to deal with China.
At the summit held by the United States, Japan, and the Philippines in April, the United States promised the Philippines to intensify its pressure on China in the Asia-Pacific region, which was directly reflected in the large-scale joint military exercises held by the United States and the Philippines in the South China Sea, and even more so the deployment of intermediate-range ballistic missile systems in Luzon, the Philippines. At the same time, the US military deployed stealth fighters in Japan and sent former high-ranking officials to participate in Lai Qingde's inauguration, just to support the DPP.
The US think tank predicts that once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Japan, South Korea, and Australia will follow suit at the call of the United States. First of all, Japan and South Korea are the ironclad allies of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, with many US military bases deployed, close military ties, and closer proximity to the Taiwan Strait, which are the most important forward support of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.
As a result, the United States intervenes in military action against Taiwan, relying on military bases in Japan and South Korea, and the United States can intervene in the situation in the Taiwan Strait at any time, while Japan and South Korea, as junior brothers, naturally obey the orders of the United States; once China and the United States take direct action, Japan will follow the United States to take advantage of the situation to launch an attack on the PLA, and it is likely to be the third participating country in the middle of the Taiwan Strait.
Next are Australia and India, two countries that are relatively far away from the Taiwan Strait, but India is unlikely to be directly involved in the Taiwan Strait. As for Australia, as one of the Five Eyes alliance, it is strategically all at the disposal of the United States, and since the United States has orders, it will cooperate with the US military in combat.
The Philippines and Vietnam, which are seen by US think tanks, are speculators, and these two countries have territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea. Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait and falls into a stalemate stage, it is very likely to take the opportunity to make trouble in the South China Sea and act as speculators in the hope of reaping the benefits of the fisherman.
As for Russia and North Korea, given their special relations with China, they are likely to attack both Japan and South Korea at the same time. There is a territorial dispute between Russia and Japan, and Putin has expressed his support for China's realization of national reunification, exerted pressure on Japan, and completely made a break with Japan, while North Korea is threatening South Korea on the peninsula, and the probability of directly taking action against South Korea has increased.
It can be seen from this that once this conflict between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait breaks out, according to the predictions of US think tanks, it will cover the peninsula, the South China Sea, the Sino-Indian border, and the Russian-Japanese direction, and may cause local military conflicts. In fact, apart from Japan, Australia, South Korea, and other countries, the Philippines, Vietnam, and India are not to be feared, and these three countries may not obey the orders of the United States.
The three countries that should be wary of Japan, South Korea and Australia, especially Japan and South Korea, should also think clearly about the final fate. As the saying goes, we despise our opponents strategically and attach importance to them tactically, and the Taiwan issue is a red line that China does not set that cannot be touched, and we should prepare for the future and abandon unrealistic illusions in response to the assumptions of US think tanks.