Recently, the central bank has issued three consecutive policies, lowering the loan interest rate, provident fund interest rate, and down payment threshold. The State Council has introduced measures to purchase commercial housing for affordable housing.
At the same time, the cities of Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province and Xi'an, Shaanxi Province previously announced that they would completely cancel the restrictions on the purchase of housing in the city, and the purchase of housing will no longer review the qualifications for purchasing housing. The latest measures have aroused widespread concern in the society.
What are the reasons and effects of the latest move? How do you see the urgency of destocking? How can we truly continue to promote the coordination of the two tasks of "stock real estate digestion and incremental housing optimization"? How does the trade-in policy help digest the stock of second-hand housing? Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, shared his views.
Q1: On May 17, the central bank announced that it would cancel the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level, reduce the interest rate level of provident fund loans, and adjust the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first house to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the second house to not less than 25%. At the same time, the State Council introduced measures to purchase commercial housing for affordable housing. How do you see the reasons and implications of the latest policy?
Yan Yuejin: First of all, the real reason for the latest policy is to further promote the transformation of the real estate market. By continuing to make further efforts in financial and other policies, we can better respond to new market trends.
At the same time, the latest policy mentions encouraging and guiding financial institutions to support local state-owned enterprises to purchase completed and unsold commercial housing at a reasonable price as affordable housing, avoiding financial risks and revitalizing the stock of housing.
The latest policy has a very strong market shock, and it will also help to further digest the inventory of subsequent new houses. The policy will continue to have an impact, which has a positive effect on this week's market transactions, next week's real estate stocks, the property market throughout this year, and the adjustment of home buyers' expectations, fully reflecting the country's attention and support for the transformation of the real estate market.
Q2: Looking back, on April 17, 2010, the State Council issued the Notice on Resolutely Curbing the Excessive Rise of Housing Prices in Some Cities, namely the "National Ten Articles", and many cities have issued "purchase restriction orders". How do you see the changes in real estate policy? Where is the future of real estate optimization policies headed?
Yan Yuejin: Generally speaking, the changes in policy are based on market changes. Essentially, consumer demand has moved from being really tight in the past to being relatively saturated. Consumers' propensity to buy homes has shifted from a shortage of necessities to a pursuit of high-quality housing.
Q3: The purchase restriction policy has been implemented for many years. As a landmark policy of real estate regulation in mainland China, what are the references for the remaining cities?
Yan Yuejin: For the national market, there are seven cities and regions that also implement purchase restrictions, including four first-tier cities, Tianjin, Hainan, and Zhuhai Hengqin. For example, although Hainan has relaxed purchase restrictions in various places, there are still social security payment requirements. In general, the core point of such policy purchase restrictions still emphasizes the "job-housing balance", or the constraints and requirements of social security. Different cities have their own considerations. Among them, Hainan and Zhuhai should give due consideration to the policy content of major regional reforms.
At the same time, there will be relaxation in first-tier cities, but there will definitely be no complete abolition of social security requirements. Subsequent adjustments are likely, but they will not be cancelled directly. Even if there is partial relaxation, it needs to be evaluated, which is very important. At the same time, from the actual process, the possibility of relaxing the purchase restrictions of second-hand houses is relatively large.
On the whole, the relevant market will be transformed, especially the real estate market like Hangzhou is very attractive to young people, and the recent opening of college graduates, so it will bring new housing transactions to be active.
Q4: According to reports, in March this year, the entire inventory of the country, including residences, shops and office buildings, was 750 million square meters, and the saleable inventory of residential buildings is estimated to be about 600 million square meters, equivalent to 5 million units. How do you see the urgency of destocking?
Yan Yuejin: Destocking is indeed a very urgent issue. Because the inventory is not removed, the financial pressure on the enterprise is also relatively large.
The release of the policies of the two cities will have a positive impact on destocking, and it is expected that the national real estate market will usher in a wave of destocking, and at the same time, market expectations and property market transactions have changed greatly.
With the continuous promotion of various policies, May is a critical month for all-out destocking, and all localities will continue to promote the coordination of the two tasks of "stock real estate digestion and incremental housing optimization" to truly help the active and high-quality development of the housing market.
Q5: In the face of huge inventory and rising increment, how can we truly continue to promote the coordination of "stock real estate digestion and incremental housing optimization"?
Yan Yuejin: Hangzhou's policy is worth learning from, in general, compared with the simple "policy relaxation" thinking in the past, the current policy is characterized by the stock and incremental markets, the land and housing markets, the real estate and household registration policies, the short-term stimulus and long-term planning policies, and the four areas of people, real estate, land and money. Many openings will help to truly promote the circulation and healthy development of the real estate market.
The key point of the overall planning of the two tasks of truly promoting the digestion of stock real estate and the optimization of incremental housing is to digest the stock of housing. First of all, the stock of real estate includes not only second-hand houses, but also the inventory of real estate enterprises, unfinished buildings, existing commercial office buildings and self-owned properties.
Regarding the digestion of the stock of second-hand housing, the core issue is in the second-hand housing transaction, such as the school district resources of the second-hand house, and the micro-renovation of the second-hand house, which all affect whether the second-hand housing has a better residential or school district value.
For the developer's inventory, the question is how to further reduce the cost of buying a home.
As for the stock commercial offices, as far as I know, various localities are investigating the vacancy rate of the stock commercial offices. The latest survey shows that all localities are studying how to reuse the stock of property to prevent the formation of some precipitated funds of enterprises and reduce the pressure on the stock of commercial offices.
Q6: At present, the trade-in of the house is in progress. You mentioned digesting the stock of second-hand housing, how will the trade-in policy help achieve this task?
Yan Yuejin: The trade-in policy has a positive effect on the inventory digestion of new and second-hand houses. Through such activities, various localities have gained more customers and accelerated the digestion of some new housing inventory. In turn, some local state-owned enterprises or state-owned funds have stepped in and begun to acquire second-hand houses and turn them into affordable housing or rental housing, which also makes the listing of second-hand houses better digested.
[Source: Jiupai News]
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