The Philippines returned from the defeat of Scarborough Shoal, bringing back a bad news, China has restarted reclamation of islands?
The Philippine private fleet, which has just returned from the South China Sea, has revealed a piece of news that is enough to make all Filipinos uneasy: China is restarting land reclamation work at Scarborough Shoal, and the South China Sea is about to change completely.
[The Philippine civilian fleet, which has just returned from the South China Sea, has revealed a news that is enough to make all Filipinos uneasy]
According to Philippine media reports, the Philippine non-governmental fleet that recently went to Scarborough Shoal to declare the so-called "sovereignty of the Philippines" held a press conference immediately after returning to Subic Bay.
At the press conference, Mark Figueres, head of the fleet's advance detachment, said that he learned from Filipino fishermen familiar with the situation that since April, the Chinese coast guard and other departments have forcefully cleared the field near Scarborough Shoal, driving away Filipino fishermen who could have operated near the island, suspected of carrying out engineering construction work, and some fishermen saw the Chinese side laying pipelines in the middle of Scarborough Shoal, that is, in the lagoon, suggesting that China may be engaged in land reclamation operations.
A Filipino fisherman also told the media that Filipino fishermen near Scarborough Shoal were being "driven away like animals" and that fishermen would not be "threatened with fists" but "threatened with guns", suggesting that the Chinese coast guard had shown its weapons and forced the Filipino fishermen away.
To be sure, there are many doubts about the Philippine side's argument that China has restarted land reclamation at Scarborough Shoal.
[Aerial photograph of Scarborough Shoal released by China not long ago]
Since the 2012 standoff at Scarborough Shoal, China has firmly controlled Scarborough Shoal and the surrounding waters, and has stationed coast guard ships on a permanent basis. Although after the easing of Sino-Philippine relations, China allowed Filipino fishermen to fish normally within a certain area around Scarborough Shoal out of humanitarian principles, but it has never allowed Filipino fishermen to enter and leave the lagoon freely. So, regardless of whether the Chinese coast guard clears the site or not, it will be difficult for Filipino fishermen to see the pipes laid in the lagoon.
The Philippine non-governmental fleet that went to Scarborough Shoal to "put on a show" was 25 nautical miles away from Scarborough Shoal, and distributed supplies to the Filipino fishermen accompanying it, and hastily ended the operation. All the claims made by the Philippine side are based on the statements of several fishermen, and no substantial evidence has been presented.
At the same time, "China's resumption of land reclamation in the South China Sea" is a hot topic that the Philippine government has frequently hyped up recently. Not long ago, when Chinese and Philippine maritime forces confronted each other at Sembin Reef, the Philippines claimed that their patrol vessels were preventing China from carrying out land reclamation. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs bluntly said that the news about land reclamation was a rumor.
[Previously the Chinese and Philippine maritime forces confronted each other in the waters of Xianbin Reef]
Therefore, the news about the land reclamation of Scarborough Shoal is most likely a fake news made up by members of Philippine civil society groups in order to cooperate with the government, exaggerate tensions in the South China Sea, and pave the way for future actions by the Philippine military and police departments.
But we must also admit that the Filipinos are right about the possibility that China may restart land reclamation in places like Scarborough Shoal.
As the United States and the Philippines continue to strengthen military cooperation, the "militarization" of the South China Sea has become an indisputable fact, and it is very likely that China, the United States and the Philippines and other countries will trigger a direct military confrontation because of some unexpected events.
First of all, warships and planes of the United States and the Philippines and other countries have launched more and more frequent provocations at Huangyan Dao, Xisha Islands, Nansha Islands, and other places. At the end of April, the Philippines sent an official fleet to try to force its way into Scarborough Shoal, but was driven away by the Chinese coast guard fleet.
Less than a month after this incident, Philippine civil society organizations organized this sea voyage again. Although the Philippine civilian fleet eventually reached a position about 25 nautical miles from Scarborough Shoal and did not engage in any direct conflict with the Chinese coast guard, their actions are still not conducive to the stability of the situation in the South China Sea.
[The Philippine civilian fleet only arrived at a position about 25 nautical miles away from Scarborough Shoal]
Second, in order to meddle in the affairs of the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea at the same time, the additional military forces sent by the US military to the Philippines have basically been deployed to Luzon Island, the northernmost tip of the Philippines and not far from Scarborough Shoal.
Three of the four new military bases acquired by the Philippine military under the EDCA agreement are on the island of Luzon. In mid-April this year, the US military also took the opportunity of the US-Philippine "Shield-24" exercise to deploy a medium-range missile system called "Typhon" in northern Luzon. Theoretically, it has the ability to launch direct strikes from Luzon against Chinese targets in various parts of the South China Sea.
The Philippine military is also actively strengthening its military deployment in this direction. According to the Philippine military's previous plan, the first batch of Indian-made "BrahMos" anti-ship missiles equipped with the Philippine army should be deployed on Lubang Island, which is located southwest of Manila Bay and less than 300 kilometers from Scarborough Shoal.
[The Philippine army has received the first batch of "BrahMos" anti-ship missiles]
This change in security posture will naturally increase the strategic position of Scarborough Shoal, which in turn will push China to deploy more naval and air forces near Scarborough Shoal to strengthen its control over the reef.
If the situation deteriorates further, it is indeed necessary for China to consider carrying out land reclamation and deploying advanced radar, air defense, and anti-ship systems on this island and reef more than 200 kilometers away from Luzon Island, so as to militarily deter the United States and the Philippines while monitoring the sea and air dynamics of the entire Luzon region, so as to completely change the situation in the South China Sea.
In addition, China has not reclaimed land at Scarborough Shoal for two reasons.
First, this reef is only more than 300 kilometers away from Manila, and land reclamation here is bound to provoke a fierce reaction from the Philippine side. But today, the Philippine actions have evaporated the military and political mutual trust between China and the Philippines during the Duterte era, and China no longer needs to think too much about the Philippine attitude.
[Under Marcos Jr.'s actions, the mutual trust established between China and the Philippines during the Duterte era has been wiped out]
Second, the South China Sea issue involves a number of countries, and if China restarts land reclamation, it may arouse the concern and suspicion of Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries. At this stage, these countries are the ones we can strive for, and they are the key forces that can work with China to restore stability in the South China Sea.
Just last year, during Indonesia's chairmanship of ASEAN, it made several attempts to de-escalate. Malaysia has also been emphasizing that China is sincere on the South China Sea issue, and Malaysia clearly opposes the intervention of foreign countries in the South China Sea. The Vietnamese government, under the co-optation of the United States and the Philippines, has exercised restraint and has refrained from undermining Sino-Vietnamese relations for the sake of interests in the South China Sea.
[China and Cambodia are conducting the "Golden Dragon 2024" military exercise]
In the past two years, China has frequently carried out military diplomacy and deepened military cooperation with neighboring countries in the South China Sea, except for the Philippines, to a certain extent, to enhance the level of mutual trust, dispel the concerns of relevant countries, and create a favorable diplomatic atmosphere for our possible tough countermeasures in the South China Sea in the future.
It can be seen that although China has not yet really started land reclamation and reserved a window for all parties to peacefully resolve the South China Sea issue, relevant preparations have not stopped. If the Marcos Jr. administration remains willing to be a pawn of the United States and cooperate with the United States to promote the "militarization" of the South China Sea. China will inevitably dispatch its engineering fleet south at the right time to take a crucial step towards resolving the South China Sea issue.