After the May Day holiday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to rise, with a price increase of more than 100 yuan (ton price, the same below). The ex-factory price of Huazhong 55 powder is about 2950 yuan, and the factory has a large amount to be sent, and many orders are stopped or limited orders. The raw material phosphate rock did not show the expected decline in the early stage, and the cost gradually moved up. At the same time, the downstream just needs to follow up one after another, and the increase of new orders has boosted the price of monoammonium phosphate.
1
Costs remain high
Table 1 Comparison of prices of main raw materials (unit: yuan/ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information
In terms of monoammonium phosphate raw materials, it is still necessary to pay attention to the trend of phosphate rock.
Before May Day, it was rumored that the price of phosphate rock in Hubei was expected to be lowered by 30~50 yuan, but after the holiday, the downstream monoammonium phosphate, especially the industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate market, was very scarce, and the price rose amazingly. Boosted by this market, the decline in phosphate rock was eliminated, and the price remained high and firm.
The third round of the second batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspectors was launched on May 7, and the environmental protection inspectors focused on environmental problems in the Yangtze River basin, which affected the transportation of phosphate rock to a certain extent. It is also reported that due to road problems in Yiling District, Yichang, Hubei Province, the export of ore is restricted. The pressure on phosphate rock inventory in Sichuan is relatively large, and the downstream intention to reduce prices is strong. The tight situation of the phosphate rock market in Yunnan has not been alleviated, and the shipment of Guizhou mine is stable. At present, the regional differences of phosphate rock still exist, and the market is waiting and seeing, and the price has not changed.
In terms of other raw materials, there are currently merchants who are willing to inquire about buying and selling, but they are only rational about the price of replenishment, and the holders have not been given the opportunity to actively operate, so they are waiting for the market with the mentality of accompanying the market for the time being; The supply and demand of the sulfuric acid market are mostly in the implementation period of new prices, and the short-term market is mainly stable; Synthetic ammonia has increased significantly, but the cost is relatively small and the impact is limited.
2
The plant was started and upgraded
As of May 9, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic monoammonium phosphate industry was 46.7%, an increase of 4.05% from the previous week. Although the market has improved and prices have continued to rise, some pre-maintenance devices have resumed production one after another, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of the monoammonium phosphate industry will increase to about 50% this week, an increase of more than 3 percentage points from the previous month. It is reported that Hubei Juwang, Anhui Zhongcheng, Gansu Wengfu devices have been operating normally; The maintenance plan of Hubei Dasheng plant in the middle of this month was postponed, and the output of individual factories increased.
3
Downstream rigid demand procurement-based
Comparison of weekly data on the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers in China
Data source: Longzhong Information
In the 19th week of 2024 (20240506-0509), the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 52.48%, an increase of 3.18 percentage points from the pre-holiday cycle and an increase of 2.96 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, Hubei and Jiangsu and Anhui regions concentrated fertilizer in summer, coupled with the continuous rise of raw materials, the enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches of mining and preparation has been enhanced, and the load of enterprise equipment has increased significantly. The load of enterprises in Shandong and Henan is relatively stable, and the supply of low load in the early stage has been improved. At the end of the Northeast season, the number of parking devices has increased, and the load of some enterprises in production is also low. Most of the major compound fertilizer factories have purchased the reserve price and settlement of monoammonium phosphate factories in the early stage (it is reported that they can be used until June). Recently, with the continuous rise in prices, some wait-and-see mentality has gradually risen; Small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises have insufficient raw material stock in the early stage, and raw materials are mainly purchased in rigid demand.
On the whole, the raw material phosphate rock will continue to maintain a high level of operation, the volatility of other raw materials is limited, and the cost of monoammonium phosphate is still supported. In order to ensure the supply of downstream compound fertilizers, the load of enterprises will continue to remain high. The cost remains high, the downstream rigid demand still exists, monoammonium phosphate restricts orders, and the price may continue to rise firmly, but with the increase in supply and the end of summer fertilizer demand, the increase may gradually decrease.
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Please indicate in the following format: Source: Agricultural Resources Herald Author: Li Lingxin
Editor: Ding Jiahui Review: Wang Meihong Producer: Zheng Hongyan