If Cialis is the leading stock of "Hongmeng Zhixing", then, BAIC Blue Valley can be considered as the "shadow stock" of Cialis - after all, Wenjie and Xiangjie are empowered by "Hongmeng Zhixing", and they will be displayed, sold, delivered and after-sales service in the user center authorized by Hongmeng Zhixing in the future - even if the enjoyment of BAIC Blue Valley does not reach the popularity, sales and user loyalty of Wenjie, but with a discount (this discount cannot be determined, you need to wait for the market to give), you can estimate the value of BAIC Blue Valley or the value of Xiangjie.
1. Models and sales volume of BAIC Blue Valley
ACCORDING TO THE 2023 ANNUAL REPORT OF BAIQI BLUEVALLEY, THE MAIN MODELS CURRENTLY ON SALE IN BAIQI BLUEVALLEY ARE ALPHA S ADVANCED VERSION, ALPHA T FOREST VERSION, ALPHA S S FOREST VERSION, ALPHA T5, KOALA, BEIJING EU7, BEIJING EU5/EU5 PLUS, etc.
According to the data disclosed by the "Home of Owners", at present, in 2023, the sales volume of Beijing EU5 will be 62,332 units, the sales volume of ARCFOX Alpha S will be 15,163 units, the sales volume of ARCFOX Koala will be 7,286 units, the sales volume of ARCFOX Erfa T will be 6,549 units, and the sales volume of ARCFOX Alpha T5 will be 1,018 units, a total of 92,348 units, which is basically consistent with the 92,172 units disclosed in the financial statements.
The reason why there is a large difference between the production volume and sales volume of BAIC Blue Valley is that the sales volume includes some cooperative models jointly developed by BAIC BJEV and BAIC Motor, produced by BAIC Motor, and sold by BAIC BJEV (here mainly refers to Beijing EU5).
Excluding the Beijing EU5, the total sales volume of ARCFOX in 2023 will be 30,016 units, which is close to the production volume of 26,649 units disclosed by BAIC Blue Valley, a difference of 3,367 units. The reason why there is a gap is mainly due to the change in inventory, the inventory in 2022 is 7,744 vehicles, and the inventory in 2023 is 3,162 vehicles, a decrease of 4,582 vehicles (not necessarily all Jihu, there can also be Beijing EU5), and the inventory has decreased, resulting in more sales than production in the current period.
2. The valuation of BAIC Blue Valley
ARCFOX is the brand that BAIC BJEV originally cooperated with Huawei, and adopts the HI model, that is, Huawei provides intelligent vehicle solutions. Relying on the cooperative model "Beijing EU5" produced by BAIC Motor and sold by BAIC New Energy is obviously unable to support the market value of BAIC Blue Valley, and the revenue brought by trade is not of much value.
Relying on the current Jihu brand, it seems that the market value of 35.45 billion yuan to support BAIC Blue Valley is not enough.
The average monthly sales volume of Jihu is only about 2,500 vehicles, and the valuation coefficient (total market capitalization/monthly sales) of "Hongmeng Zhixing" is about 0.0675 million yuan/vehicle, that is to say, the Jihu brand is worth a maximum of 16.875 billion yuan, but considering that the average selling price of Jihu is only 223,300 yuan/vehicle, and the average price of a bicycle of about 300,000 yuan/vehicle of "Hongmeng Zhixing" is a big difference, therefore, the Jihu brand can be worth 10 billion yuan, even if it is a high incense.
Then, what can support the market value of BAIC Blue Valley must be the "Xiangjie S9" (luxury intelligent pure electric car) that will come out in 2024, at present, Chery's "Zhijie S7" sales have reached 5000 units / month, according to the current experience that the sales volume of M7 and M9 are basically the same, Xiangjie S9 benchmarks Wenjie M9, and Zhijie S7 benchmarks Wenjie M7, then, Xiangjie S9 theoretically, can also reach 5000 units / month sales.
The two brands of BAIC Blue Valley, Jihu and Xiangjie, have a sales volume of about 7,500 vehicles per month, which is about 50 billion yuan or so, multiplied by the valuation coefficient of "Hongmeng Zhixing" of 06.75 million yuan per vehicle. At present, the market value of BAIC Blue Valley is 35.45 billion yuan, and the discount rate is about 70%, which is a discount to the uncertainty of the future.
3. Summary
The Xiangjie S9 will be officially unveiled at the 2024 Beijing International Auto Show, and is expected to be released in July-August this year. All uncertainties will settle in two months.
There can be a few beats in life, and it seems that a small bet is not impossible!