The battle for lithography machines: a new battlefield in the Sino-US science and technology war
In the smoke of this Sino-US science and technology war, a device called "lithography machine" has become the focus. As the key equipment of chip manufacturing, the technical level of the lithography machine directly determines the process technology of the chip, which in turn affects the performance and power consumption of the chip. In this field, the Dutch ASML company dominates and has become a battleground for China and the United States.
The king of lithography machines in the Netherlands
Headquartered in the small Dutch city of Eindhoven, ASML has become one of the world's most valuable technology companies thanks to its monopoly in the field of lithography machines. Its EUV lithography machine is the best choice for chip manufacturing, which can accurately imprint circuit patterns on the surface of wafers, enabling advanced process technology of 7nm and below.
ASML's success did not happen overnight. The manufacturing process of a lithography machine is extremely complex, requiring the integration of many cutting-edge technologies, from the light source and optical system to the core components such as the objective lens. Even the world's top optics experts struggle to fully grasp the mysteries.
Over the years, ASML has finally made breakthroughs in the field of EUV lithography machines with unremitting R&D investment. And this achievement has also made it a battleground for the Sino-US science and technology war.
The U.S. "stuck neck" strategy
For the United States, preventing China from gaining access to advanced chip-making capabilities is a top priority in its long-term strategy. It has spared no effort to pressure the Dutch government to ban the sale of EUV lithography machines to China.
As early as 2019, Pompeo, then US Secretary of State, personally lobbied the Dutch government to prevent ASML from selling EUV lithography machines to China. Subsequently, the Trump administration's national security adviser Kupermann directly warned Dutch diplomats that ASML's lithography machine would not function properly if it lacked American parts.
Since the Biden administration took office, the "neck" strategy against China has not been relaxed. In 2022, the United States passed the "CHIPS Act" to further expand the export restrictions on chip manufacturing equipment to China, not only prohibiting the export of EUV lithography machines to China, but even DUV lithography machines are also strictly controlled.
In the face of tough pressure from the United States, the Dutch government was in a dilemma. On the one hand, it is unwilling to completely submit to the demands of the United States, and on the other hand, it has to reckon with relations with the United States, an important ally.
Under constant pressure from the United States, the Dutch government agreed to a secret agreement in early 2023 to temporarily prioritize the export of ASML's DUV lithography machines to markets outside China. The agreement quickly lost its binding force.
China's "rush to buy" campaign
Despite severe restrictions imposed by the United States, China's efforts in the field of lithography machines have never stopped. On the contrary, Chinese companies have increased their procurement of DUV lithography machines to prevent stricter export restrictions in the future.
In 2023, China purchased a large number of DUV lithography machines from the Netherlands, and imports surged by as much as 10 times to $3.7 billion. In the third quarter, China accounted for nearly half of ASML's sales, up from 24% in the second quarter and 8% in the first quarter.
This "rush to buy" action not only allowed ASML to achieve remarkable results in the Chinese market, but also put the United States' "stuck neck" strategy in a difficult situation. The United States tried to restrict ASML's lithography exports to China by pressuring the Netherlands, but the result was counterproductive, and China became ASML's largest market in 2023.
Faced with this situation, the United States has further increased its pressure on ASML. In October 2023, the U.S. unilaterally introduced new restrictions on the export of DUV lithography machines by foreign companies. At the end of the same year, U.S. officials demanded that ASML immediately stop shipping equipment to Chinese customers.
China's path to independent innovation
Despite the obstacles it has encountered in the field of lithography machines, China has not given up on its own development path. On the contrary, China is investing more in efforts to achieve independent innovation in lithography machines in order to get rid of dependence on foreign suppliers.
As early as 2016, the Chinese Academy of Sciences launched the "Research on Key Technologies of Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography" project, although there is still a long way to go before the final mass production of EUV lithography machines, but this marks the beginning of China's independent innovation in this field.
Chinese companies have also made great strides in the field of DUV lithography machines. It is understood that SMIC and other companies have been able to produce advanced chips above 28 nanometers, which has injected new impetus into the development of China's chip industry.
To fully master the core technology of lithography machine is by no means achieved overnight. The manufacturing process of a lithography machine involves many technical difficulties, from the high precision requirements and the wavelength limitation of the light source, to the manufacturing of reticles and material compatibility, each of which is a new challenge.
As Chinese scientists say, "the 90-nanometer lithography machine took 10 years to develop", as long as it is unremitting and down-to-earth, one day, China will be able to overcome the last hurdle of the lithography machine.
Future prospects
Looking at this lithography machine controversy, it is not difficult to find that it is actually a microcosm of the Sino-US science and technology war. In this war, the United States is trying to hinder the development of China's chip industry through technological blockade, while China is trying to achieve independent innovation and get rid of its dependence on foreign technology.
This war will be a protracted contest. Both sides will not give in easily, and the key to victory or defeat lies in who can master the core technology of lithography machine.
For China, independent innovation is the only way to go. Only by truly mastering the core technology of lithography machine can China's chip industry be truly independent and controllable, and can it be invincible in this scientific and technological war.
And for the United States, a technological blockade is not a one-and-done solution. In this era of rapid change, the monopoly of any kind of technology is temporary. If the United States blindly relies on blockade measures, it will end up in a situation where it will only be passively beaten.