In the past seven days, it has been the fiercest week of fighting since the start of the war, and the Ukrainian army has killed and wounded 10,160 Russian soldiers in seven days.
After the most intense confrontation, the situation will slowly stabilize! Multiple phenomena inside and outside the battlefield show that the Russian-Ukrainian war, the stage of strategic stalemate is coming! Does the Ukrainian army have the strength to carry out a strategic counteroffensive?
Bakhmut
One. On the battlefield: the defensive line is stabilizing
After a week of bloody battles between Russia and Ukraine, the defense line tends to be stable!
One of them." Kharkiv buffer zone", there is an intention to prepare for a stalemate
In the past week, the biggest change for the Russian army has been to launch an attack in Kharkiv, and according to analysis, the Russian army wants to establish a buffer zone.
The attack on Belgorod by the Ukrainian army and, in particular, by the Russian rebels is definitely a problem for Russia's henchmen, and this analysis is reasonable.
However, we can observe it this way: It is impossible for Russia to concentrate 50,000 troops to capture Kharkov, and it is Russia's realistic choice to seize Volchansk and Kobtsy and then form a defense line to break through the territory of Ukraine, mobilize and consume Ukrainian vitality, and keep the Russian rebels out of the country.
The Russian army in Kharkiv has penetrated as far as 10 kilometers into Ukraine
This carries with Russia the intention of preparing for the arrival of a long-term stalemate phase.
Second. The eastern front of Ukraine tends to be stable
Unlike on February 7, when the Russian army gradually and slowly advanced westward after breaking through Avdeyevka, the Russian army has been attacking in the eastern part of Ukraine in the past week, but it has gained little.
For example, the crossing of the railway by Russian troops on the southern flank of Bakhmut on May 15, turning the whole of Krashkivka into a gray area, is one of the biggest changes in a week.
For example, the Russian army launched an armored attack from Maryinka to the west on May 16, which was crushed by Ukrainian artillery fire!
West of Maryinka: The blue dot is a Ukrainian shelling, and the Russian equipment point was destroyed
Zelensky said that since the start of the war, the front-line combat brigades of the Ukrainian army have received a sufficient supply of artillery shells for the first time, although the words of the Ukrainian president do not correspond to reality (otherwise how could there be a counteroffensive in September 2022), but with the influx of Western aid, the Russian army's 7-month offensive period since October 10 last year has come to an end!
Two. Outside the battlefield, the intention of holding each other is revealed
1. Domestic
On May 15, President Putin convened a meeting of national defense, Shoigu, Gerasimov, and commanders of major military districts. At the meeting, Putin stressed that Russian military spending has continued to rise and has reached 8.7% of GDP. Therefore, it is necessary to replace the Minister of Defense with the first deputy prime minister of Russia, because he knows how to integrate the economy of a strong sector with the economy of the country.
In the west of Maryinka, Russia is launching an armored offensive
Compared with 2023, Russian military spending will account for 3.7% of GDP, and it can be said that it will rise to 8.4% in 2024, which is an astonishing increase.
The offensive consumption is far greater than the defense, and based on the expenditure, the Russian army may be about to go on the defensive next! This means that the stalemate phase is about to begin.
Second. Ukraine is recruiting prisoner soldiers
On May 16, Zelensky signed a bill to mobilize certain categories of criminals during martial law
Under the Act, convicts must obtain a parole decision from the court in order to serve under a contract. Persons released from prison will serve in special forces.
Ukraine has also lowered the age of mobilization from 27 to 25.
It can be seen from here that there is a shortage of Ukrainian soldiers, and even if the front line is stabilized by artillery fire, it is unable to organize a counterattack in a short time. It is also inevitable to adopt a stalemate strategy at this stage.
Three. Conclusion
On May 17, the 814th day of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian General Staff announced a war report, The Russian army has lost 1,410 people in the past 24 hours, which is the 84th time since the start of the war that the Ukrainian army has killed more than 1,000 enemies in a single day.
The past week has been a fierce week of confrontation in the Russia-Ukraine war, with forces from all sides gathered: both sides of the Russia-Ukraine confrontation are struggling to support.
And the hard support itself means: the Russian-Ukrainian war, the strategic stalemate stage is coming.
And does Ukraine have the strength to organize a strategic counteroffensive again? How big is this likely based on the strength of Ukraine itself? Let the time tell!