Today (May 17, 2024), the main event of the market is still in real estate! At noon today, the central bank issued three blockbuster policies in a row beyond expectations, including canceling the lower limit of the housing loan interest rate policy, lowering the interest rate on provident fund loans and lowering the down payment ratio. As soon as this news came out, the real estate sector instantly surged, the real estate leaders Vanke A and Poly Development both rose to the limit, and the real estate ETF (159707), which represents the A-share leading real estate market, soared by more than 9%, setting a record of seven consecutive yangs, and blasting out a daily turnover of 215 million yuan!
Image source: Wind
Real estate is an important pillar of economic development, is the steering stone to stabilize the economy, and the confidence of the real estate market has increased greatly. Driven by real estate, the A-share market also ushered in a big counteroffensive today, with the three major indexes all rising more than 1%. More than 4,000 stocks rose in the whole market, and the turnover of the two cities continued to increase to 887.4 billion yuan. The core assets of A50 were greatly boosted, and the price of the core leading broad-based A50 ETF Huabao (159596) rose 1.67% to a new high since its listing, with a turnover of 334 million yuan, ranking first in its category!
Image Credit: Snowball
In terms of industry themes, with the strengthening of the real estate chain, the chemical sector also rose significantly in the afternoon, with three trees and three boards, and chemical ETF (516020) winning the daily triple yang! Affected by favorable policies, the low-altitude economy continued to ferment, and the national defense and military ETF (512810) finally rebounded, and the price on the market closed up 1.74%, ending the previous five consecutive declines!
In terms of economic data, the April economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today showed that in April, major indicators such as industry, exports, employment and prices improved overall, and new drivers maintained rapid growth. Specifically, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7 percent year-on-year, 2.2 percentage points faster than the previous month, and increased by 0.97 percent month-on-month.
Looking ahead, Shengang Securities pointed out that after the disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report of the listed company, the short-term entry into the "vacuum period" of performance disclosure, market-driven or mainly based on capital and expectations. Looking at the valuation of the past decade, the earnings percentile of the A-share market is below the median, indicating that the current valuation is still attractive.
Today, we will focus on the trading and fundamentals of three sectors, including real estate, national defense and military industry, and chemicals.
First, the tide is up and down! The market value of Vanke A returned to 100 billion, and the volume of real estate ETF (159707) soared by more than 9%, setting a record of seven consecutive yangs! The latest research and judgment of fund managers is here
Sure enough, there is a "fried market" policy, and today's real estate continues to strengthen, and the leading real estate companies set off a rising tide, Vanke A, Poly Development, Binjiang Group, Huafa Shares, Greenland Holdings, etc. China Merchants Shekou, Financial Street, OCT A, Xincheng Holdings, etc. rose more than 9%, and the CSI 800 Real Estate Index rose for seven consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 13.32% in a single week! It significantly outperformed the broad market of the CSI 300 (+0.31%) and CSI 500 (-0.79%) indices over the same period.
In terms of popular ETFs, the real estate ETF (159707), which represents the leading real estate market of A-shares, soared in the afternoon, rising 9.09% to close at 0.684 yuan, a new high in 5 months, and a record of seven consecutive days on the daily line! The turnover rate exceeded 61% throughout the day, and the turnover hit 215 million yuan, a new high since listing, and a surge of more than 115% from the previous trading day! And the premium at the end of the market is obvious, indicating that there are contingent funds to grab funds!
Image source: Wind
On the news side, the central bank's unexpected policy has been issued three times in a row, involving a number of adjustments to the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rates. These include:
Abolish the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level;
From May 18, 2024, the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points;
For households that take out loans to purchase commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second houses is adjusted to not less than 25%.
As soon as this news came out, the real estate sector soared instantly, and the latest market value of Vanke A and China Merchants Shekou also returned to 100 billion yuan.
Regarding the down payment policy, Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said that this is the most relaxed down payment policy in the history of China's home purchase, which has an obvious effect on stimulating market transactions. The reduction of the down payment ratio is far higher than that of other urban policies, and is of great significance for the rapid release and large-scale release of housing loan-pulled, rigid demand and improved housing.
Regarding the mortgage interest rate, market participants said that the cancellation of the lower limit of the national personal housing loan interest rate policy is a trend-following behavior. It is expected that in addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the lower limit of mortgage interest rates in most cities across the country will be abolished. After the policy is implemented, the mortgage interest rate in most cities may drop by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, and the total interest expense can be reduced by more than 70,000 yuan based on the calculation of 1 million loans, 30-year term, and equal principal and interest repayment. Interest expenses for improved demand housing will be reduced even more.
Jiang Junyang, fund manager of real estate ETF (159707), said that since the recent high-level meeting of the central government set the tone of "overall study of policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing", the policy thinking of real estate has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, and focused on destocking. The central bank has launched three arrows at the same time, canceling the lower limit of the housing loan interest rate policy, lowering the interest rate on provident fund loans and lowering the down payment ratio.
Looking forward to the future, Jiang Junyang believes that with the continuation of the loose tone of policies at both ends of supply and demand, the supply-side clearance under the support of financing is basically over, and the demand-side policies stimulate or guide the fundamentals to stabilize and repair, and the industry has short-term opportunities for rebalancing the relationship between supply and demand, while the transformation of urban villages and the construction of affordable housing are expected to provide incremental space for the industry. It is worth noting that in the real estate sector, state-owned enterprises with relatively stable fundamentals, strong financial strength, and more high-quality and abundant land reserves, as well as high-quality private enterprises that take the lead in completing credit repair in this round of industry clearance, can focus on.
Layout of central state-owned enterprises and high-quality real estate enterprises, related products real estate ETF (159707). According to the data, the real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 real estate index, bringing together 16 leading high-quality real estate companies in the market, and has obvious head concentration advantages in the investment direction, with the top ten constituent equity weights exceeding 8 percent, and the content of central state-owned enterprises is high! The Real Estate ETF (159707) is also the only industry ETF that tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index in the market, which has scarcity and recognition.
Second, the policy exceeds expectations! The low-altitude economy continues to ferment, and the intraday limit of Sichuang Electronics! National Defense ETF (512810) rose 1.74%
The defense and military industry sector has finally rebounded! The increase ranked among the TOP5 among the 31 Shenwan first-class industries, and nearly 2.1 billion yuan of main funds were returned in a single day! The representative national defense and military ETF (512810) fluctuated higher throughout the day, and the price on the floor closed up 1.74%, ending the previous five consecutive declines! The transaction volume throughout the day was 54.34 million yuan, an increase from yesterday.
Image source: Wind
Military stocks showed a general upward trend, 77 of the 80 constituent stocks of the CSI military index tracked by the national defense and military ETF (512810) closed up, the low-altitude economy and military informatization are still the strongest driving force, and the related constituent stocks of Sichuang Electronics hit the daily limit and closed up 9.79%, and many stocks such as Guanglian Aviation, Xinjingang, and Guangwei Composites rose more than 6%.
Image source: Wind
On the news side, yesterday evening, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology issued the "Beijing Action Plan for Promoting the High-quality Development of Low-altitude Economic Industries (2024-2027)" for public comment. The "Action Plan" proposes that under the premise of ensuring safety, the number of low-altitude economy-related enterprises will exceed 5,000 in three years, driving the city's economic growth to exceed 100 billion yuan.
Low-altitude economy is a national strategic emerging industry, the recent low-altitude economic policies have been implemented, the trillion market picture scroll is slowly unfolding: many provinces and cities in mainland China such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Anhui, Wuxi, Suzhou, Shenyang, Changsha and other provinces and cities have recently issued low-altitude economy-related action plans or drafts for comments, aiming to seize the opportunity of low-altitude economic development.
Guoyuan Securities Research Report pointed out that the low-altitude economy is currently in the dual stage of "policy vigorously promoted" and "commercialization process accelerated", the trillion blue ocean market is gradually unfolding, and the next few years will be the golden development period of the low-altitude economic industry chain, and companies with relevant technology accumulation are expected to gain a first-mover advantage. The latest research report of Guojin Securities also reiterates that the low-altitude economy is a new track of independent and controllable in the next 5-10 years, and it has entered the pilot period of application promotion and is about to enter the period of rapid development of the industrial chain.
The related product National Defense and Military Industry ETF (512810), which tracks the CSI Military Index, and its constituent stocks fully cover the leading stocks in the subdivisions such as "low-altitude economy + military informatization + China Shipbuilding Department + China Aviation Department", which is a powerful tool for one-click investment in the core assets of A-share national defense and military industry.
It is particularly worth mentioning that as of the first quarter of 2024, the net value growth of the National Defense and Military ETF (512810) since its inception has been as high as 19.87% relative to the performance benchmark!
Note: The annual performance of the national defense and military ETF from its inception in 2016 to 2023 is -7.33%, -12.27%, -28.34%, 25.39%, 77.34%, 25.08%, -25.52%, and -9.09%, respectively, and the returns of the performance comparison benchmark (CSI Military Index) for the same period are -3.44%, -18.37%, -27.25%, 22.02%, 67.91%, 14.28%, and -25.74% respectively 、-11.02%。 The composition of the constituent stocks of the underlying index is adjusted in accordance with the rules of the index, and its backtested historical performance is not indicative of the future performance of the index.
Three, three trees triple board! Good superposition, chemical ETF (516020) closed up 1.55%, daily three consecutive yang! Institutions: The allocation value of the chemical industry is gradually emerging
Recently, the property market has been positive, and the decoration and building materials sector has rebounded strongly by taking advantage of the wind of real estate! Three Trees rose again today and harvested three consecutive boards! As one of the important upstream industries of real estate, the chemical sector has fully blossomed in various sub-sectors, Guangwei Composite Materials soared 6.05%, Zhongfu Shenying and Chuanfa Long Python both closed up more than 5%, Taihe New Materials, Yuanxing Energy and other stocks rose more than 3%, and industry leader Wanhua Chemical closed up 1.48%.
Image source: Wind
The chemical ETF (516020), which reflects the overall trend of the chemical sector, rushed all the way up in the afternoon, and as of the close, the price on the market rose 1.55%, and the daily line was three consecutive yangs, recovering the 5-day line!
Image Credit: Snowball
Recently, the market sentiment has warmed up, the policy is continuous, and the chemical industry involves a wide range, is the upstream industry of many industries such as real estate, or will benefit to a greater extent from the real estate and other industries and the rebound of the domestic economy, and the decoration and building materials related stocks in the sector may directly benefit from the property market.
1. The property market has made another big move
The property market is good again. At noon on May 17, the official website of the central bank issued the "Notice of the People's Bank of China on Reducing the Interest Rate of Personal Housing Provident Fund Loans", "Notice of the People's Bank of China on Adjusting the Interest Rate Policy of Commercial Personal Housing Loans", and "Notice of the State Financial Supervision and Administration of the People's Bank of China on Adjusting the Policy of Minimum Down Payment Ratio of Personal Housing Loans", triggering market sentiment. The real estate sector rose in response, and the chemical sector rose with it.
2. The expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cut has been advanced
Price growth in the United States slowed further. According to data released on Wednesday, May 15 local time, the CPI and core CPI in the United States increased by 3.4% and 3.6% year-on-year respectively in April, both slowing down from March. The timing of the Fed's rate cut is expected to be further advanced.
If the Federal Reserve starts a cycle of interest rate cuts, the easing of funds may lead to a greater boost to external demand, which may be good for the export of products in the downstream chemical industry of the mainland.
On the news of heavyweight stocks, recently, Wanhua Chemical Barcelona R&D Center was grandly opened. The opening of the R&D center means that Wanhua has taken an important step in promoting the development of Europe and the world. It is understood that the center will also cooperate with leading research institutions and universities to innovate and develop, make full use of external scientific research resources and expertise, drive innovation and enhance competitiveness.
Looking ahead, Dongguan Securities said that in the context of low profitability and valuation of the chemical industry, with the marginal improvement of the performance of the subdivisions, the value of industry allocation is gradually emerging, and it is recommended to pay attention to the subdivisions with a good supply and demand pattern.
Guodu Securities recommends three investment directions, one is a leading company with absolute cost advantage; second, companies that have completed a round of capacity expansion peaks and improved the supply and demand pattern; The third is the subdivided industry with high product technical barriers, less competition, and obvious recovery of downstream demand.
How to grasp the rebound opportunity of the chemical sector? The layout efficiency of the chemical ETF (516020) may be higher. According to public information, the chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI subdivision chemical industry theme index, fully covering all subdivisions of the chemical industry. Among them, nearly 5% of the positions are concentrated in large-capitalization leading stocks, including Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Shares, Enjie Shares, Hualu Hengsheng, Tianci Materials, Rongsheng Petrochemical, etc., to share the investment opportunities of the strong Hengqiang; The remaining 5 positions take into account the layout of leading stocks in phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry, nitrogen fertilizer, coal chemical industry, titanium dioxide and other subdivisions, and fully grasp the investment opportunities in the chemical sector.
Pictures and data sources: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Huabao Fund, Wind, etc., as of 2024.5.17.
Risk Warning: Real estate ETF passively tracks CSI 800 Real Estate Index, The index has a base date of 2004.12.31 and a release date of 2012.12.21, an underlying index of A50 ETF Huabao (159596) and its feeder fund is CSI A50 Index with a base date of 2014.12.31, a national defense ETF passively tracking the CSI Military Index with a base date of 2004.12.31 and a release date of 2013.12.26, and a chemical ETF passively tracking the CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index with a base date of 2004.12.31 and a release date of 2012.4.11. The composition of the index constituents is adjusted in accordance with the rules of the index, and its backtested historical performance is not indicative of the future performance of the index. The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only objectively displayed and enumerated as index constituent stocks, and are not recommended as any individual stocks, and do not represent the fund manager and fund investment direction. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors shall be responsible for any investment behavior determined independently. In addition, any opinions, analysis and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, and the company shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content of this article. Investors should carefully read the Fund Contract, Prospectus, Fund Product Key Facts Statement and other legal documents of the fund, understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, and choose products that are suitable for their own risk tolerance. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund. According to the assessment of the fund manager, the risk level of real estate ETF, A50 ETF Huabao, national defense and military ETF, and chemical ETF are all R3-medium risk, which is suitable for investors with balanced (C3) and above, and the suitability matching opinion is subject to the sales agency. Please refer to the sales agency for suitability matching opinions. Investors should pay attention to the suitability opinions issued by the fund managers in a timely manner when the distribution agencies (including fund managers, direct sales agencies and other sales agencies) conduct risk assessments of the above funds in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, and the opinions of each sales agency on the suitability are not necessarily the same, and the risk rating evaluation results of fund products issued by fund distribution agencies shall not be lower than the risk rating evaluation results made by fund managers. The risk-return characteristics of the fund and the risk level of the fund in the fund contract are different due to different factors to be considered. Investors should understand the risk and return of the fund, carefully select fund products based on their own investment objectives, horizon, investment experience and risk tolerance, and bear their own risks. The registration of the above funds by the China Securities Regulatory Commission does not indicate that it has made substantive judgments or guarantees on the investment value, market prospects and returns of the funds. Caution should be exercised when investing in funds.
The above content and data have nothing to do with the position of the interface and do not constitute investment advice. Do so at your own risk.