Text: Utopia on the Clouds
Utopia on the clouds
Sources: All of the information stated in this article is based on reliable sources, and is detailed at the end of the article
Preface
Chen Shui-bian must be familiar to everyone, and according to previous reports, Tsai Ing-wen may "pardon" Chen Shui-bian before leaving office, and her approach has been incomprehensible to the outside world.
However, just recently, news came out that Tsai Ing-wen repented and would not "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian, and this operation can be said to make the outside world once again unable to understand Tsai Ing-wen's thoughts.
After Tsai Ing-wen decided not to "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian, Chen Shui-bian broke through his defense in an instant, and he did not even participate in the activities, and experts on the island also made a judgment on this, saying that the United States may be behind the scenes, and many people are curious about what role the United States has played in this.
Tsai Ing-wen will not "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian
After Chen Shui-bian stepped down as leader of the Taiwan region in 2008, he was sentenced to 20 years on suspicion of corruption and money laundering.
According to media reports, in the eight years that Tsai Ing-wen has been in office, Tsai Ing-wen has always tried her best to avoid this issue, but now, when Tsai Ing-wen is about to leave office, there is another rumor that "Tsai Ing-wen has decided to pardon Chen Shui-bian before leaving office."
Moreover, this statement also added that "Tsai Ing-wen will reduce the social impact by claiming to confiscate the illegal gains of NT$1.1 billion that have been seized by the Bian family."
Information source: Straight News 2024-05-07 About before leaving office, Tsai Ing-wen "again" wants to "pardon" Chen Shui-bian? 丨Report on the Bay Area Wanghai
On May 10, according to reports, after Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen reportedly planned to "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian before leaving office, the media said that Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde "reached a consensus" and were expected to "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian.
According to a source in the green camp, Chen Chien-jen, the former head of the administrative organ of the Taiwan authorities, is expected to lead the "general resignation" of the administrative organs on 16 May, after which the office of the leader of the Taiwan authorities will issue the last "amnesty order" of Tsai Ing-wen's term of office, which will "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian.
According to a report by Taiwan's "Mirror Weekly," Tsai Ing-wen has decided to "pardon" Chen Shui-bian before leaving office, and the staff department will start the "amnesty" operation.
Information source: Reference news On May 10, 2024, Taiwan media disclosed: Cai Laida's "consensus", next week or "pardon" report
However, just recently, it came out that Tsai Ing-wen denied the news of "amnesty" for Chen Shui-bian, and after this news came out, many netizens expressed their support, and at the same time, some netizens did not understand Tsai Ing-wen's approach.
According to media reports, in response to Tsai Ing-wen's announcement of an "amnesty" for Chen Shui-bian on the last working day before 20 May, Taiwan's media took the lead in revealing the news on 16 May.
He said that because Taiwan's administrative team had resigned on the same day and entered the "detention stage," even if Tsai Ing-wen ordered an "amnesty" for Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's administrative organs and legal departments would not be able to complete the follow-up procedures.
Therefore, Tsai Ing-wen's statement that she announced a "pardon" for Chen Shui-bian before leaving office is not valid, and the reason given by Tsai Ing-wen is that the "cabinet" has resigned, so it cannot complete the "amnesty."
No matter how you look at this reason, you can see that it is a shirk, and it is simply that it does not want to give Chen Shui-bian an "amnesty," and it is obviously an excuse.
Therefore, after Chen Shui-bian learned of this news, he himself was very angry about it, so Chen Shui-bian also quoted the statement of You Yinglong, chairman of the "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation," to respond to Tsai Ing-wen's move.
Chen Shui-bian said that "this statement is full of loopholes and is too ridiculous." It can be seen from Chen Shui-bian's statement that Chen Shui-bian is very angry with Tsai Ing-wen's approach and does not agree with Tsai Ing-wen's statement.
Source: Strait Herald on May 17, 2024 Regarding Tsai Ing-wen's statement that the "cabinet" has resigned and cannot be "amnestied", Chen Shui-bian responded: The statement is too ridiculous
As a matter of fact, Tsai Ing-wen has always declared to the outside world that she wants to ensure that Chen Shui-bian receives proper health care, and she has always avoided the issue of "amnesty," and it was not until 16 June that she clearly pointed out that "there is no such decision."
Tsai Ing-wen's refusal to "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian dealt a big blow to Chen Shui-bian, and according to Chen Shui-bian's friends, Chen Shui-bian's mood was greatly affected after learning of the incident.
According to media reports, Chen Shui-bian was originally going to Kaohsiung City on the afternoon of 16 June to attend the opening of an art exhibition, but it was also temporarily canceled.
Information source: Taihai.com on May 18, 2024 About "amnesty" is in vain! Chen Shui-bian's "mood was greatly affected" report
It is also enough to see Chen Shui-bian's dissatisfaction with this decision, which may lead to Chen Shui-bian not being able to obtain "amnesty" for the rest of his life, and Chen Shui-bian is well aware of such a result, so he is very dissatisfied with this.
You Yinglong also mentioned this matter on Facebook: "Is this the end"? The argument that the "cabinet" has resigned and cannot complete the "amnesty" for Chen Shui-bian is too far-fetched and ridiculous.
This is because although "Chen's cabinet today has resigned," it has not yet taken effect before Tsai Ing-wen approves it, and second, Tsai Ing-wen's exercise of rights is not affected by the two-day weekly holiday, and if she sincerely "amnesties," there will be a lot of time.
Chen Shui-bian responded to Tsai Ing-wen's move by quoting You Yinglong's remarks, but in fact, many people on the island thought that Tsai Ing-wen would "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian.
Because Tsai Ing-wen is about to step down, the "amnesty" of Chen Shui-bian will only have no impact on her, after all, she will have already withdrawn by then, and what will happen after that has nothing to do with her.
However, Lai Qingde is different; seeing that Lai Qingde's inauguration ceremony is getting closer and closer, and that he is about to usher in his new career, if Chen Shui-bian is "amnestied" at this time, he will undoubtedly be setting himself on fire and openly opposing the masses on the island.
According to a previous TVBS poll, 48 percent of the people oppose the "amnesty" of Chen Shui-bian, only 22 percent are in favor, and another 30 percent do not want to express their opinions.
Information source: Straight News On May 13, 2024, there was a report on Tsai Ing-wen who was busy "amnesty" Ah Bian, and Taoyuan had another power outage丨 Bay Area Wanghai
In the face of such an investigation, Lai Qingde will definitely not do this after taking office, and he will definitely choose a method that is beneficial to himself after weighing the rights and disadvantages.
Regarding the "amnesty" of Chen Shui-bian, Guo Rui, a researcher at the Center for Taiwan Studies of Xiamen University, analyzed the matter in an interview with this reporter.
He said that the previous rumors that Tsai Ing-wen would "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian were only an oolong incident of Tsai Ing-wen's political struggle, and neither side really wanted to "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian.
Guo Rui also pointed out that the low public opinion on the island and the low support rate inside and outside the party led to the failure of the formal "amnesty." He analyzed that Chen Shui-bian's dream of "amnesty" was shattered and Tsai Lai's political talks broke down; on the surface, it seems that there are differences between the two sides on the issue of "amnesty" for innocence or "exemption from punishment." In essence, it is a political struggle between Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde as successors.
Guo Rui's analysis of whether Lai Qingde will "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian in the next four years is not impossible, but he still continues to consider that if Lai Qingde carries out an "amnesty" during his term of office, Chen Shui-bian is very likely to choose to continue to be active in Taiwan's political arena and carry out a package of political whitewashing for the Bian family.
It may form a political force capable of splitting the DPP, the outcome of which is beyond Lai's control.
Guo Rui's analysis, from the perspective of a bystander, pointed out the problem, as well as the thoughts of Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde, and this analysis also made many people suddenly realize.
Information source: Strait Herald on May 18, 2024 about Guo Rui: "Amnesty" Chen Shui-bian became an oolong, Tsai Ing-wen Lai Qingde's political fighting methods, not a sincere report
In fact, in our opinion, this matter is a win-win approach for Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde, but Tsai Ing-wen has abandoned this idea and said that she will not "amnesty" Chen Shui-bian.
The United States intervenes behind its back
Earlier, Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde reached a consensus on the matter of "amnesty" for Chen Shui-bian, former DPP "legislator" Guo Zhengliang pointed out.
If Tsai Ing-wen "pardons" Chen Shui-bian, she must have reached a "political deal" with Lai Qingde, first, she demands that Lai Qingde not pursue the case of Tsai Ing-wen's fake doctoral dissertation; The second is to let Tsai Ing-wen's "national security team" stay in office.
Wu Zijia, a former member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) who is familiar with the political ecology of the green camp, said in an interview that this was the result of the failure of the intra-party negotiations, because the issue of "amnesty" for Chen Shui-bian was adopted by a "collegial decision" within the DPP, and the opposition within the party was too great, resulting in Tsai Ing-wen having no way to arbitrarily "amnesty."
However, Chieh Wen-chieh, former "representative to New Zealand" of the Taiwan authorities, speculated that the reason why Chen Shui-bian's "amnesty" was blown out at the last minute may be because it was explicitly opposed by the United States.
This is because the Americans deeply hate Chen Shui-bian and believe that Chen Shui-bian played with the Americans back then, and that the United States is now opposed to the "amnesty" of Chen Shui-bian, and that it can just "build up its authority." On the one hand, it warns Lai Qingde not to play tricks with the Americans, otherwise he will end up like Chen Shui-bian.
On the other hand, he also warned Tsai Ing-wen not to think that he could do anything if he stepped down, and Jie Wenji also pointed out that according to the logic of the Americans in Washington, "Anyone who annoys me will be killed for life."
Source: Strait Herald 2024-05-16 On why did the "amnesty" fail? Is there too much backlash within the DPP or is the United States blocking it? reports
In fact, Jiewenji's analysis is indeed reasonable and has a certain degree of credibility, because Jiewenji mentioned that Chen Shui-bian had offended the United States, so according to the thinking of the United States, it would indeed make such a decision.
Chen Shui-bian has always been actively promoting "Taiwan independence," and in 2007, Chen Shui-bian offended the United States because of the "Taiwan independence" incident.
At that time, Chen Shui-bian frantically promoted "Taiwan independence," and he himself knew very well that if he advocated "Taiwan independence," not only would the mainland react strongly, but even the United States would restrain him.
However, Chen Shui-bian still goes his own way, and his attempt to drag the United States into the water and force the United States to have a showdown with the mainland in the Taiwan Strait has made the United States feel that Chen Shui-bian is manipulating them.
Source: China Daily, January 31, 2007 reported on the continuous clamoring for "constitutional amendment" and Bian's rampant promotion of "Taiwan independence".
Therefore, there is a certain degree of credibility in Jiewenji's argument, and the United States certainly will not let a person who has threatened it feel better, and of course it does not want to release Chen Shui-bian.
epilogue
The Chen Shui-bian incident can also be regarded as a warning to those "Taiwan independence" elements, and the United States has only regarded them as a pawn and is using them from the beginning to the end.
Those "Taiwan independence" elements will be kicked out of the competition once they have no place to make use of them, and if they do not obey the United States during this period, then what awaits them will be unbearable consequences.
Taiwan and the mainland have always been one family, but the "Taiwan independence" elements have repeatedly forgotten this fact, leading to the deterioration of cross-strait relations.
The reunification of the motherland has always been the wish of the people on both sides of the strait, and those who try to undermine cross-strait relations will eventually be condemned by the world and become sinners of history.