In the past two days, there have been rumors on the Internet that a number of ministries and commissions have set up a joint working group to prepare for the launch of "major initiatives" in real estate, which is supported by official news, and the news that media reports will be announced has been issued.
There is news that it will be officially announced at 4 pm today, May 17, and it seems that most of this time it is true, so what is this big move? Can real estate be saved?
First of all, we will explain that our content was completed in the morning, and it will be released in the late afternoon, and it can be verified today.
This time, the news was reported by financial media such as the Financial Associated Press, Oriental Fortune Network, and Flush.
According to the report, according to the State Council Information Office, at 4 p.m. on 17 May, responsible persons of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the People's Bank of China, and the State Financial Supervision and Administration will hold a regular briefing on the State Council's policies to introduce the relevant situation of the supporting policies for ensuring the delivery of housing.
Before the policy briefing in the afternoon, on the morning of May 17, the State Council will organize a meeting related to real estate work, and relevant measures in the real estate field may be announced at that time.
The People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, the Ministry of Finance, relevant leaders of local governments, and responsible persons of large financial institutions such as state-owned banks will all attend the meeting.
Judging from the report, this action is indeed not small, and it is not an exaggeration to say that real estate is a "major move".
The major events in China's real estate industry are indispensable to Bloomberg in the United States, and sure enough, they are here again, and it is amazing news as soon as they make a move.
On May 15, Bloomberg broke the news, saying that we are discussing a plan at the top level, and the national team will personally go down and acquire millions of commercial houses!
The article said that "according to people familiar with the matter", local state-owned enterprises will buy inventory commercial housing in the hands of real estate companies at a significant discount to transform them into affordable housing.
I have to say that this time Bloomberg is not completely reliant on Meng, but has facts and bases and inferences.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been national teams from Chongqing, Zhengzhou and other places to buy commercial housing, and the policy of "exchanging the old for the new" is not a pilot in one place, but has spread all over the country.
What's even more explosive is that Hangzhou has issued a blockbuster document in the past two days, "Announcement on the Solicitation of Acquisition of Commercial Housing for Use as a Public Rental Supplier", which is also a direct end.
Why is real estate in such a hurry? Of course, the market situation this year is very severe.
In fact, it is the new housing market, not the second-hand housing, that is grim.
This morning, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 292.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, of which the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 23.8%. The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 2,806.7 billion yuan, down by 28.3 percent, of which the sales of residential buildings fell by 31.1 percent.
Last year, the sales of commercial housing were 11.66 trillion yuan, and many people predict that they will remain around 10 trillion yuan in the next few years.
However, only 4 months have passed this year, and the defense has been fully broken, and according to the sales of 2.8 trillion yuan from January to April, it may only be about 8.4 trillion yuan for the whole year, a decrease of about 28%.
This rate of decline is too fast, unexpectedly, the key is that the real estate company will not be able to bear the large area, and the economy will be dragged down even more.
Our expectation for real estate is to be able to develop steadily and healthily, and we don't expect it to make a big contribution, as long as it doesn't drag down the economy.
Therefore, at this time in mid-May, it is completely understandable that major measures were urgently launched, this is not Bloomberg's cleverness, the market has long been there.
So, what is this big move?
We put aside Bloomberg's excitement and don't think it's a big deal, and the Financial Associated Press mentioned two things at the end of the report: the scope of assistance for "guaranteed delivery of buildings" may be further expanded, and the acquisition of stock housing is being discussed.
That is to say, this major move is mainly to ensure the delivery of buildings and the acquisition of housing stock, and we believe that there will be a third.
Again, this is no secret, as evidenced by the actions of cities large and small in real estate at the beginning of this year.
Recently, Nanjing, Chengdu, Hangzhou and other important cities have relaxed the purchase restriction policy, and there are even those who buy a house and get a hukou.
Before, the national teams in Chongqing, Zhengzhou and other places took over the house, as well as the old for the new, and the movement was not small.
We can understand that these cities are piloting in advance and testing the market reaction.
Actually, the market didn't react much, why?
This is not because there is no demand, let alone no money, just look at this year's everyone grabbing a car and grabbing cabbage in the vegetable market.
Because the scope is not large enough and the stimulation is not strong enough, everyone thinks that neither the policy nor the housing price has yet to the end.
On the basis of the pilot projects in some cities, it is natural for the whole country to make unified deployments, expand the scope, and increase efforts.
Guaranteed delivery of the building is a basic guarantee, which can not be lost at any time, and the real estate cannot have large-scale risks, let alone mass incidents.
The acquisition of housing stock is also bound to be one of the measures, which is already being piloted, and this trick will be very effective if it is expanded.
In addition to these two items, we believe that there will also be the cancellation of purchase restrictions, and it is obvious that several major cities have already piloted it.
However, regarding the purchase restrictions, the core question is always whether the four first-tier cities will completely cancel the purchase restrictions?
It is likely that a city of Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen will be released first, and housing prices are already very high, and the impact is too great.
Therefore, there are no secrets in the real estate market now, and as for whether the real estate can be saved, it is very simple, just look at it.