On May 18, 2024, the Russia-Ukraine war entered its 815th day.
In the early morning of the 17th, the Ukrainian army launched more than 100 drones (more than 100 drones under the interception claimed by the Russian Ministry of Defense alone) to attack a number of targets in Russia, mainly in Novorossiysk (330 kilometers from the front line) and Tuapse (430 kilometers from the front line).
If I'm not mistaken, this should be the largest airstrike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the start of a full-scale war, and the Russians had a long sleepless night.
Novorossiysk was the first city to be attacked, starting at about 3:15 a.m. and the attack lasted about 2.5 hours, with a total of 33 drones attacking multiple targets in Novorossiysk.
The governor of the state announced that the Ukrainian attack attempt had failed, and the Russian army shot down 10 drones. But Russian military bloggers have reported that the attacks have caused significant damage, with power outages at ports and fuel depots in Novorossiysk burned down after the attacks.
According to preliminary information, a total of two oil depots, a terminal and a railway junction were hit. 、
Deputy Mayor of Novorossiysk Alexander A. Yamenskov announced that residents are forbidden to leave their homes at night, and it is better to stay in their rooms and not go out.
In addition, parents of local students received a message from the school that students did not need to go to school the next day.
When the sun began to rise, the port of Novorossiysk received another round of attacks.
In Tuapse, a fire broke out at a Russian oil company refinery after a Ukrainian drone attack.
The refinery has a refining capacity of 240,000 barrels per day, which is about 3.5% of Russia's total refining capacity.
In recent months, the Ukrainian army has become more and more successful in attacking oil infrastructure and military bases in Russia, and the cost of drones is low, and launching 20 drones will make a lot of money as long as one of them can successfully hit the target.
According to media reports, Ukraine will be able to produce more than 1 million attack drones this year, and with the addition of Western-aided drones, the Ukrainian army will have more than 2 million.
Rogozin, the former head of Russian aviation, once said that there are more and more drones in Ukraine, like stabbing a beenet's nest, and Russia needs low-cost interceptor weapons, and the cost of using expensive missiles and electronic warfare systems is too high.
In addition to the Russian mainland, Crimea was also hit by a large-scale drone attack on the 17th.
This is the third attack on the third day in a row.
On the night of May 16, Belbek was attacked by the ATACMS of the Ukrainian army, two MiG-31s, one Su-27 and an ammunition depot were destroyed, in addition to one MiG-29 was damaged.
The MiG-31 is the best Russian aircraft, extremely expensive to manufacture, and it is also the main model of the Russian missile attack on Ukraine, which is the first time that the Ukrainian army has destroyed the MiG-31 fighter.
Satellite images show the results of the ATACMS attack on the occupied Belbek airbase in Crimea, and the continued attacks of the Ukrainian army will make this airfield increasingly difficult to maintain.
Back to the battlefield.
On the Kharkiv front, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, said that the Russians had expanded the front to nearly 70 kilometers, forcing the Ukrainian army to send additional troops from the reserves.
The main forces of the Russian army were concentrated in Strekh-Lipka and Vovchansk, and tried to detour to the rear of the Ukrainian army to deploy an offensive, but failed to break through the Ukrainian defenses.
Over the past 24 hours, the Russian offensive on Strech-Lipka has been stopped, and the Russians have suffered heavy losses.
Quite a few Russian soldiers were taken prisoner.
In the Vovchansk direction, the Ukrainian army has also pushed back to the red dot position.
On the whole, the situation on the battlefield in Kharkiv has basically stabilized.
However, Vovchansk is being heavily shelled by the Russian army. The Russians also used cluster munitions, which injured five people, including Tamaz Gambarashvili, the head of the Vovchansk city administration.
On the Donetsk front, the 79th Brigade in Novomykhailivka has finally received reinforcements, and soldiers of the 199th Air Brigade of the Ukrainian Army have already been thrown into the battle in the village.
Over the past 24 hours, Russia has continued to attack Kostyatinivka and Paraskoviivka (Novomikhailivka region).
Yesterday's results announced by the General Staff of Ukraine were 1400+ again.
Let's take a look at the other news.
In terms of military aid, Denmark has provided Ukraine with additional military aid worth $815 million. Of this, $350 million will be spent on air defense, and France will provide a set of Aster missiles, the European version of the Patriot missile
In addition, there is information that the United States may supply Ukraine with extended-range AGM1000 missiles with a range of up to 158 km.
German Defense Minister Pistorius said a few days ago that Latvia intends to hand over six Amber-1800 reconnaissance radars to Ukraine. It is not yet known when these will be delivered.
Amber-800 has a monitoring range of up to 400 km.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently signed a decree on the country's withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States, while neighboring Moldova will hold a referendum to join the European Union in order to escape the threat of Russia.
The United States announced sanctions against two Russian individuals and three companies, accusing them of facilitating the transfer of weapons, including ballistic missiles, from North Korea to Russia for use in the fight against Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that "this is the first time in the war that Ukraine has enough artillery shells to deal with Russia, and there is no shortage of artillery shells for any brigade".
The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Brown, said on Thursday that NATO's sending of trainers to Ukraine seems inevitable At the moment, NATO allies are gradually getting closer to sending troops to Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops.
The battlefield situation has been grim in recent weeks, with Russia taking advantage of delays in U.S. arms shipments to accelerate its advance. Ukrainian officials have turned to their U.S. and NATO counterparts for help in the hope of training 150,000 recruits closer to the front line for faster deployment. So far, the United States has said it has rejected the request. But General Brown said it seemed inevitable that NATO would send trainers. He said:
"Over time, we will get there (to send training troops to Ukraine)".
Personally, I think it is unlikely that NATO will send troops into Ukraine, sending troops is France's way of thinking, not the United States, and with Biden's conflict management thinking, it is unlikely that NATO will send troops, even if it is just to help Ukraine train troops.
It is important to know that the training of the new army does not necessarily have to be carried out in Ukraine, and Brown's remarks may be a test of Russia's response and bottom line.
May 16 is Vyshyvanka Day, a day when people dress up in Ukraine's national costume. President Volodymyr Zelensky and First Lady Volodymyr Zelenska greet Ukrainians on Vyshvanka Day:
"After years of resistance, it has become the unofficial uniform of all those who defend humanity, freedom, and the right to self-identity."
There are rumors that Putin intends to negotiate peace, but I personally think that this may not be very likely at present, and Russia still has a gambling capital, so it is impossible to admit defeat easily.
But there is no doubt that time is on the side of Ukraine.
Ukraine is signing more and more bilateral security agreements, strengthening its defense industrial base to produce more and more advanced weapons, and building up its economy, which is weakening Russia's economy and military
In a word, Russia is going backwards, while Ukraine is moving forward and will eventually succeed.
Realistically speaking, many of Putin's judgments before starting this war were correct, such as the reaction of the West, if the Russian army can accept the fight in a few months, then the West can indeed only sanction one thing.
Unfortunately, he underestimated a key factor, and that was the indomitable spirit of the Ukrainian people to defend their destiny at all costs.
This spirit is like Blinken said, bombs cannot be destroyed, mass graves cannot be buried, bribes cannot be bought, and threats cannot be suppressed.
With such a spirit, no matter how difficult the process is, Ukraine will be victorious and sunny.
Text/West Building Drinking Moon
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