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Hello everyone, welcome to the 89th issue of my fund's regular investment, I have been more idle recently and write one more this week,
Hangzhou Lin'an issued a blockbuster announcement to acquire 10,000 square meters of commercial housing for public rental housing
Ladies and gentlemen, we have finally waited for the regulator's action on the real estate industry: the local government is to ensure the delivery of the building, and the maintenance of real estate enterprises directly buys houses and subleases. From the perspective of the current economic environment, it can stimulate real estate to a certain extent, which is definitely positive; However, from a social point of view, the granting of public power to some people will inevitably lead to some corruption, and it is foreseeable that some years after the policy is implemented nationwide, there will be revelations of corruption and other incidents in which the person in charge was responsible.
Fed's Mester is "hawkish" again: interest rates should remain high for longer
The Fed's next interest rate decision is scheduled for June 11 and 12, so let's wait and see
On the afternoon of May 17, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision issued three real estate-related policies in a row, "Notice on Adjusting the Interest Rate Policy for Commercial Personal Housing Loans", "Notice on Adjusting the Policy on Minimum Down Payment Ratio for Personal Housing Loans" and "Notice on Reducing the Interest Rate of Personal Housing Provident Fund Loans".
The main contents of the above three policies are:
- Abolish the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level;
- The minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the second house is adjusted to not less than 25%;
The interest rate on personal housing provident fund loans was lowered by 0.25 percentage points.
Summary: The local government has purchased houses to stabilize housing prices in stock housing, and the down payment ratio of housing loans has been historically lowered in terms of policy, and new real estate policies have been introduced in many places:
In the past two years, the macro economy has been affected by external factors such as decoupling and chain breaking, showing signs of deflation of "low growth and low inflation".
You can see that new concepts have emerged all the time recently. The low-altitude economy that suddenly exploded in the early stage, and the synthetic biology and quantum technology that have recently become hot seem to be unlogically hyped, but in fact, the main line behind it is very clear. The underlying logic of the low-altitude economy is military stocks, the underlying logic of synthetic biology is chemical stocks and pharmaceutical stocks, and the underlying logic of quantum technology is communication stocks and software stocks
Mr. Xiao Zhigang revealed the unique role of military stocks in the market in his book "Investment Rules". Military stocks, as the industry with the highest valuation in the market, actually play the role of the "ceiling" of market valuation. In the midst of a bull market, while valuations of all stocks will generally rise, there is a sequence of valuations across industries. The price-earnings ratio of military stocks will first rise from 50 times to 100 times, and then the price-earnings ratio of pharmaceutical, environmental protection, software, tourism and other industries will rise from 30 times to 60 times. More interestingly, the military index tends to move ahead of the CSI 300 index. This means that when the CSI 300 index has not yet bottomed, the military index may have bottomed first. Therefore, from a certain point of view, the military index seems to be more suitable as a leading indicator for judging the bull market, and it can even be said that it is more sensitive than the brokerage index. According to this logic, the low-altitude economy (military industry), synthetic biology (medicine), and quantum technology (software) are just the vanguard of the rise in market risk appetite and an important symbol of the bullish stock market. The recent surge in China General Internet and Hang Seng Technology is also a reason——— which comes from the snowball Qingshan hermit
This week, we made regular investments in our key funds and sold some of our Chinese concept stock funds. Bought some debt-based projects. Due to the favorable policies related to the real estate industry this Friday, I speculated and bought some real estate index funds
Let's hope that's right
So far, my fund portfolio has returned 8.83% this year, outperforming 96.86% of the base
The return in the past year was 11.65%, and the CSI 300-7.03% in the same period
The Chinese concept stock fund is currently losing about 15%, if it weren't for the fact that the income of my entire fund portfolio has turned positive, I believe my mentality has collapsed, the reason is very simple, a fund that you have held for three or four years has been in a state of loss, and it has just decided to give up and start to rise; It's like if you finally got a hen and someone stole it just about to place an order. At present, it is difficult for me to calm down and think about the trend of this fund, and I can only follow the plan I have made before.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 40,000 mark for the first time. All three major stock indexes posted their fourth straight weekly gains this week after a series of inflation reports reignited hopes of a Fed rate cut.
Our NASDAQ seems to follow this rhythm, and our current fund has a real profit of 20%+, and there are such funds in the profit and loss portfolio.
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