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Wang Wen, executive dean and doctoral supervisor of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of Chinese, is a "practitioner" in the field of Sino-Russian relations. In 2022, he intensively researched 21 cities across Russia, asking President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov face-to-face. In the past two years, he has gone to Russia for research as many as 6 times, and has accumulated a large number of first-hand materials. It is worth mentioning that Wang Wen is also a visiting professor at Moscow State University.
President Putin's visit to China has attracted great attention from all over the world. In fact, there is a very important background to his visit, that is, the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia. Standing at the intersection of history and reality and looking into the future, how can China-Russia relations become a model for the relationship between major powers and each other's largest neighbors in the world today? With this core issue, Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News interviewed Wang Wen in Beijing on the 17th.
We have an underestimation of Russia on three levels
Wang Wen said that the past two years have been a rare and rare observation period for Russia's national fortunes, so he spent about three months in Russia in order to gain a deeper understanding of what has happened to our largest neighbor under the great changes unseen in a century. Through cross-analysis, he believes that the Chinese public has a deep misunderstanding of Russia, which is highlighted by three underestimations.
The first is underestimating the stability of Russian politics. Putin, who received 87.28 percent of the vote in the general election, and his research interview with about 200 people in Russia also confirmed the strong sense of Russian identity.
The second is underestimating the resilience of the Russian economy. In fact, in terms of purchasing power parity GDP, Russia ranks fifth in the world. The deep-seated reason is that Russia is extremely rich in resources, and the total value of Russia's resources exceeds $700 trillion in terms of oil, energy, iron ore, water resources, forests, and other resources, while the United States, which ranks second, has only $4 or 5 trillion. Resources play an important anchor role in both the Russian economy and currency. This is the underlying reason why it has been able to withstand more than 20,000 rounds of sanctions imposed by the United States and the West. Moreover, the sanctions imposed by the United States and the West have also become an opportunity for Russia to restart some previously abandoned industries.
The third is the underestimation of the qualities of the Russians. Wang Wen mentioned that even in small cities, Russians show a high level of artistic literacy, and many people will dress up to attend art exhibitions and museums, which is rare to see in the United States and Europe. And the proportion of the population with a university education is about 50% in Russia, about 40% in the United States, and less than 10% in China. During Wang Wen's research in more than 20 Russian cities, although he did not know Russian, he could use English to travel freely.
Pictured: A supermarket in Moscow
Russia's re-emergence is a high-probability event
Wang Wen said that this conflict is the largest foreign conflict that Russia has faced since the end of World War II, but at least based on his own research experience, there is no substantial change in the life and work of Russians at present, and the cities are as safe and orderly as ever, and the further east you go, the less the atmosphere of war will become.
In the period at the beginning of the conflict in 2022, Russia also suffered a large impact on the economy, finance, and trade, "but now it has basically come out of the predicament." The strategy of the Westerners, which at first was to defeat Russia with maximum sanctions, and even to dismember it, has now proven ineffective. Wang Wen believes that Russia's re-emergence is a high-probability event, and it is precisely because of this that China should study Russia in depth and strengthen the guidance of the expected process. In other words, 10 years, 20 years or more, Russia really rose, did Russia feel close to China at that time? Just as China has been reforming and opening up for more than 40 years, it is precisely because the Americans participated in this process from the beginning that many Chinese people have a sense of closeness to the United States.
Wang Wen believes that Russia is China's largest neighbor, so it is necessary to look at Russia beyond the shackles of ideology, geography, and historical concepts, and regard Russia as a "potential stock." "If it's a potential stock, why don't we go to the bottom?"
Photo: Moscow International Business District
Russians "do not like Chinese goods but preference, but also see the truth in adversity"
Wang Wen told Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News that he observed in large and small cities in Russia that since nearly 90% of European and American brands have withdrawn from the Russian market, Russian consumers' closeness to Chinese goods has been greatly enhanced, and the influence of Chinese brands in the Russian market has also increased significantly. In the case of automobiles, six of the ten most well-known car brands in Russia are Chinese. "It's not love, it's preference, because adversity sees the truth." In terms of bilateral economic and trade figures, the trade volume between the two countries exceeded 240 billion US dollars last year, an increase of 26.3% year-on-year. This growth rate has been going on for several years, far exceeding the expectations of the world, and even more than the expectations of both China and Russia. If it continues at this pace, Russia will become China's second-largest trading partner in three years. With economy and trade as the ballast stone, Wang Wen said that he is very optimistic about the sustained development of the strategic relations between the two countries in the future.
With regard to the speculation by some public opinion in the United States and the West that Sino-Russian economic and trade relations had slightly retraced by 2% last month, and claimed that Sino-Russian economic and trade relations had reached the ceiling, Wang Wen believes that what the speculators will never mention is that Putin's visit to China has further opened up the space for economic and trade cooperation between the two countries and further consolidated the foundation. "The fluctuations in individual months are normal, and there are both exchange rate factors and foreign trade market factors."
Pictured: Chinese cars exported to Russia
Putin's "special forces" visit to China is a manifestation of the deep mutual trust between China and Russia
Wang Wen noted that Putin was sworn in on the 7th and visited China on the 16th, and the itinerary was particularly tight, which can be called a "special force", which confirms that Russia puts China in the country's diplomatic priority. Putin has also brought a number of high-ranking officials this time, and in the early days of the new government, he has tightened Sino-Russian cooperation and extensively exchanged views with the Chinese side. This is a manifestation of deep strategic mutual trust.
In a written interview with Xinhua before his visit to China, Putin stressed that he and Xi Jinping had met more than 40 times. Wang Wen believes that without the guidance of exchanges between heads of state, Sino-Russian relations would not have been able to reach today's high level. Human energy is always limited, and more than 40 times, this number has already exceeded the number of times most people meet with people other than relatives and colleagues. The deep friendship between the two heads of state extends beyond governments to the cultural and social dimensions of both countries.
This is positive for China – the stability of the northern border is one of the foundations of national stability. Wang Wen said that he once drove more than 800 kilometers from Mohe in Heilongjiang to Heihe, with the Sino-Russian boundary river on the left-hand side, and saw that there was not a single border station in Russia's mountain ranges.
"Therefore, it is the foresight of the two heads of state that has saved both countries from the dilemma of security in the process of becoming each other's great powers, and has enabled the exchanges between the two countries to transcend the dilemma of the great power game, the arms race, and the surrounding conflicts in the Western tradition in the past, and we have become more and more focused on improving the well-being of the people."
It is not that Russia is dependent on China, China and Russia are equal
The United States and the West have recently hyped up the fact that China and Russia are getting closer because "Russia is dependent on China". Wang Wen believes that this is to sow discord, "it is not that Russia is dependent on China, China and Russia are equal." This equality is reflected in the fact that both countries have a high degree of strategic autonomy, and cooperation is the choice of history and the choice of the people, which is not a slogan, but an essence.
In 2022 and 2023, Wang Wen talked to Alexander Dugin, a Russian political scientist who has been described as "Putin's philosopher". He stressed to Dugin that "it is much more precious for China to maintain its independence than to directly support Russia." Wang Wen further explained this point of view in an exclusive interview. He believes that Russia is well aware of the tradition of China's diplomacy in which independence is carried out. China's independence is, first and foremost, that it has always followed the international rules centered on the UN Charter, and has also constantly defended the international norms of peace and win-win cooperation.
Wang Wen believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is unfortunate, "and it is Russia's response to NATO's continuous squeezing of Russia's strategic living space and infringing on Russia's right to development." It's just that Russia has used a radical way to "rather break the jade than the whole" and "tolerate what is tolerable" and take a special military operation to break the suppression of the West. In such a process, China has always maintained its independence, maintained its own views, and will not give Russia any so-called military assistance in military operations, but the goal is the same, that is, to work for sovereignty, dignity and the transformation of a better international system.
However, China's restraint has been smeared by the United States and the West, which have camped the issue and seized the opportunity to impose so-called "sanctions" on some Chinese companies. Wang Wen pointed out that the US sanctions are illegal, and any unilateral sanctions that exceed the scope of the UN's authorization are not in line with international law and absolutely unacceptable to China.
Wang Wen stressed that he opposes the view of the United States and the West that the normal trade between China and Russia is regarded as China's support for Russia. Trade is the right of sovereign states. "Dealing with Russia is tantamount to supporting Russia's military action against Ukraine, and this logic is problematic." Wang Wen said that he had told the West on more than one occasion in international forums, "If China really wants to support Russia as you support Ukraine, you will lose through."
Picture: Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of Chinese, was interviewed by Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News
Ukraine crisis: China is the only major country that does not supply weapons to either side
"China didn't give Russia a single drone, China didn't give Russia a single tank or armament, China has such a strong manufacturing capacity, even stronger than the Western countries combined, if we really want to support Russia, will Russia fight for so long in this military special military operation? Are you trying to force us to support Russia's military operations? ”
"The West has deceived people too much, and this can also be reflected in this problem." Wang Wen stressed that China also maintains good relations with Ukraine, which the West has turned a blind eye to. As a matter of fact, the Ukrainian Government also agrees with the principles and propositions put forward by the Chinese Government. China hopes for a political solution to the crisis.
"China is the only major country that has not provided weapons and equipment to either side of the war". Therefore, China is the party that is truly peaceful, and the Chinese government's special envoy has mediated three rounds of shuttle mediation to solve the problem, precisely because the United States hopes that this conflict will continue and satisfy the so-called hegemonic interests.
Photo: Ambassador Li Hui, Special Representative of the Chinese Government for Eurasian Affairs, talks with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba during his visit to Kyiv in May 2023
China and Russia are approaching, what are the United States and the West afraid of?
Wang Wen believes that the intention of the United States and the West to interfere with the closer approach of China and Russia is very obvious, and the reason is also very obvious, that is, they are afraid that China and Russia will form an alliance and then break the hegemony of the United States and the West, especially the United States. In fact, China and Russia have long emphasized that they are "partners and non-aligned", which is conducive to the international order.
The United States and the West fear that the proximity of China and Russia will have an impact on the unequal international political, trade, financial, and cultural order they have formulated. In fact, the United States and the West have long occupied and want to continue to maintain the right to bully developing countries for a long time, but this is not in line with the world trend. In fact, the BRICS and the SCO led by China and Russia have the support of a large number of emerging economies, and only a few US and Western countries oppose it. These new public goods of international cooperation represent the basic aspirations of developing countries for change and the right to development, and should not be denigrated.
Wang Wen once put forward a 10-point proposal on developing Sino-Russian relations. He told Shenzhen Satellite TV that he does not believe that the development of Sino-Russian relations will undermine China's relations with the West, on the contrary, the better the Sino-Russian relations, the relations between China and the United States and between China and the West will be guaranteed by the foundation. "Think about it, if the relationship between China and Russia goes bad, will China's relationship with the United States, and China's relationship with the West, get better? It will only be bullied more by Westerners, and more suppressed by Westerners with the so-called trade, technology, energy, currency, and ideological regional issues, so I think it is not a matter of trade-offs, on the contrary, it is a parallel relationship. The more Sino-Russian relations are developed, the more likely China's international relations with the United States and the West will be better changed and advanced in the future, otherwise both sides will be lost."
Wang Wen believes that opening up to the outside world is China's basic national policy, China's development of foreign relations is "in progress," and China is willing to develop good relations with all countries in the world.
Author丨Chen Ke, producer of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"; Huang Rujuan is a reporter of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News in Beijing
Editor丨Liu Liping, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News