The Philippines is only 50 nautical miles away from the target, and at the critical moment, thousands of Chinese fishing boats whistled their horns to go to sea, and the Philippine civilian boats took the initiative to retreat when they saw that the situation was not right, but the situation in the South China Sea still showed extremely dangerous signals.
As the eyes of the world focus on Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to China, China and the Philippines have launched a fierce contest of maritime power in the South China Sea. On May 16, Xi Zong, a spokesman for the Philippine NGO "Atinito" Alliance, announced that they had completed their mission in the waters near Scarborough Shoal, and a "advance team" sent by him arrived at a distance of about 46 to 56 kilometers from the shallow waters of Scarborough Shoal on the 15th to distribute supplies to nearby Filipino fishermen. From this response of the Philippine side, it may not be clear what happened that day, but combined with other information, we have reason to guess that a large number of their fishing boats probably did not intend to stop at a distance of 50 nautical miles, that is, about 90 kilometers.
Even before the Philippines launched this provocation against China's Scarborough Shoal, the Philippine side had already hyped up the upcoming activities, and they let out the wind early, claiming that 100 Filipino fishing boats would be dispatched together. The Marcos administration provided direct support for this action by the Philippine Coast Guard, which not only sent a coast guard vessel, but also a light aircraft on the 15th. Judging from the Philippine position, the Philippine side probably intends to use numbers to break through the defense line set up by the Chinese side, which has the implication of forcibly ramming China's territorial waters. The plane sent by the Philippines spotted 19 Chinese vessels in the waters near Scarborough Shoal, including one PLA warship and eight Chinese coast guard vessels, through aerial reconnaissance. Obviously, such a discovery has shaken the determination of the Philippine side, and even the sluggish Filipinos will realize that in the waters around Scarborough Shoal, the Chinese side is ready for battle.
It is worth mentioning that not only the Chinese coast guard department is ready to respond, but also the fishermen have also shown an attitude of helping to safeguard national sovereignty. It is reported that fishermen from Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces spontaneously drove to Scarborough Shoal in response to the so-called "demonstrations" in the Philippines. In the short film released by domestic new media, the text "Chinese fishing boats are fishing and fighting soldiers when they are free!" Thousands of Chinese fishing boats rushed to Scarborough Shoal! "Although we don't know exactly how many Chinese fishing boats participated in the operation, but the patriotic enthusiasm of fishermen is very high, and in terms of the number of fishing boats that can be used, the Philippines is obviously not China's opponent, and if it really wants to compete, I am afraid that there are more than 1,000 fishing boats from China!" Perhaps it was the sight of China's maritime power waiting for Scarborough Shoal, and the thousands of Chinese fishing boats blaring their horns out to sea, that Philippine civil society groups gave up their plans to violate China's territorial waters and stopped at the last 50 nautical miles.
However, although this time the Philippine action ended in thunder and rain, it still reminds us that the situation in the South China Sea has shown a dangerous signal. Prior to this, China had repeatedly warned the Philippines, but the Philippines had repeatedly provoked China, and the Marcos administration actively cooperated with Philippine civil society groups to provoke China, which demonstrated the Marcos administration's insistence on provocation. There is an argument that the Marcos administration may have valued the US side's commitment that "the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty can be invoked if there is a Filipino death," and is thinking of taking the initiative to provoke China and expecting Philippine casualties, thus directly dragging the United States into the water.
Although the above possibility is only a guess, no one can be sure that the Philippine side does not have such an idea. In fact, the Philippines knows that it has no strength to counter China, and their only hope is the support of the United States. On the one hand, when enforcing the law in the South China Sea, China should pay attention to avoiding casualties as much as possible and preventing the situation from escalating. On the other hand, the PLA may also have to prepare for the worst in advance so that it can better prepare for all eventualities.