On 16 May, Taiwan's "premier" Chen Chien-jen presided over the last session of the House of Representatives, and the "cabinet resignation" was passed, and Taiwan's administrative team officially entered a period of custody.
On that day, the Tsai Ing-wen administration reviewed the so-called "achievements" of the past eight years of administration, but their boasting and the feelings of the people on the island could be said to be completely different.
In addition, the new "cabinet" of Lai Ching-te, who is about to take office, has "changed the soup but not the medicine" in many personnel, and this has also made public opinion on the island feel unoptimistic about cross-strait relations and Taiwan's economy in the next four years.
Chen Jianren (data map)
Officially entered the "caretaker period"
According to Taiwan's "Central News Agency" reported on the 16th, Chen Jianren presided over the last "Executive Yuan meeting" during his term of office on the same day, at which Tsai Ing-wen's so-called "important governance achievements" in the past eight years were counted, including "strong economy", "happy homeland" and "democratic Taiwan".
The report claims that the Tsai Ing-wen administration has given full play to its "soft power in Taiwan" over the past eight years, deepened interaction and cooperation with the world, and "has the best relationship between Taiwan and the United States in history". In the past eight years, Taiwan's average economic growth rate has been as high as 3.15%, ranking first among the "Asian Tigers", and its GDP has increased by NT$27 trillion. Promoting the energy transition, with renewable energy generation now increasing by 110% compared to 2016.
After listening to the report, Chen Jianren said that although Taiwan is facing severe threats and challenges inside and outside the island, such as Sino-US tensions, a century-old drought, the new crown epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, inflation and high international energy prices, everyone has worked together to build a "warm and resilient Taiwan" and handed over a "bright report card".
He thanked the "Cabinet" team and prepared apple-shaped porcelain to present to the "Cabinet Members" as a symbol of peace.
According to the report, after the "cabinet resignation" petition was approved by Tsai Ing-wen, "the cabinet officially entered the detention period".
With regard to the work of Chen Chien-jen in leading the "cabinet," Taiwan's "United Daily News" commented that since Chen Chien-jen "formed the cabinet" last year, he really cannot think of any major achievements, and his sense of existence is so low that the people forget that he is the "premier" of the present day.
After the establishment of the new "Legislative Yuan," Chen Chien-jen did not accomplish the task of eliminating the antagonism between the government and the opposition and laying a good foundation for the new authorities.
On the day of the resignation of the "cabinet," the news again spread on the island that Tsai Ing-wen would grant amnesty to Chen Shui-bian on 17 July.
In response, Lin Yuchan, a spokesman for Tsai Ing-wen's office, said that in accordance with the procedure, Tsai will sign the official document of the general resignation in the future, and as for the amnesty, "the position at this stage is still to ensure that Chen Shui-bian receives proper health care and handles it in accordance with relevant laws and regulations."
Many Tsai Ing-wen officials said goodbye. "Minister of Health and Welfare" Xue Ruiyuan said that the first thing he did after leaving office was to rest and see his grandson, and frankly admitted that from this year to now, he has faced too many big problems in less than half a year, including food safety, child abuse, sexual images, and many unsolved problems.
"Defense Minister" Chiu Kuo-zheng, who took office in 2021, sent a letter to Taiwanese officers and soldiers on the 16th, saying that he has been on this train for more than 50 years, and "now it's time to pack his bags and get off the train."
Wu Zecheng, the former "political councilor of the Executive Yuan", revealed on the 15th that he would return to Yilan to rest after stepping down. In addition to enjoying retirement, he will publish a new book to shed light on how he faced problems during his tenure.
According to Taiwan's "Economic Daily", "Minister of Economic Affairs" Wang Meihua, who always blames small animals for Taiwan's power outages, will become an independent director of Taishin Financial Holdings (Taishin Financial Holdings) and Taishin Bank after leaving office.
In response, Lin Weijun, general manager of Taishin Financial Holdings, said that the list of candidates for the company's independent directors must be discussed and confirmed by the board of directors, and then announced to the outside world.
The new personnel is very scary to think about
Wang Meihua's husband, Gu Lixiong, secretary general of Taiwan's "National Security Council," will be transferred to the post of "defense minister" after 20 May.
Gu Lixiong (data map)
For example, Lin Jialong, former "secretary general of the Presidential Office," will be transferred to the post of "foreign minister," former "foreign minister" Wu Zhaoxie will be transferred to the post of "secretary general of the National Security Council," Zheng Wencan, former "vice president of the Executive Yuan," will be transferred to chairman of the Strait Exchange Foundation, and former vice chairman of the Strait Exchange Foundation (SEF) Chiu Chui-cheng will be transferred to chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council.
In addition, there are a number of officials of the Tsai Ing-wen administration who will remain in office, including "Director of the National Security Bureau" Tsai Mingyan, "Minister of Finance" Zhuang Cuiyun, "Chairman of the Maritime Affairs Committee" Guan Biling, and "Chairman of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Committee" Xu Jiaqing.
According to Taiwan's China Times Electronic News, Lai Qingde has successively announced six waves of "cabinet" personnel lists since April.
The first wave of new personnel on April 10 included the appointment of former DPP Chairman Zhuo Rongtai as the "Premier" and the appointment of Zheng Lijun, who served as the convener of Lai Ching-de's "National Policy Advisory Group" during the election period, as the "Vice President of the Executive Yuan."
Huang Yangming, a veteran Taiwanese media person, said that among the 30 "cabinet" members announced, there are eight women and 22 men, with an average age of 62.2 years. Kuomintang "legislator" Hong Mengkai summed up on the 14th that Lai Qingde's "national security team" does not leave the "old Nannan" and only looks for people in a small circle.
Zhang Junhao, a professor at the Department of Political Science at Taiwan's Tunghai University, told the BBC that Tsai Ing-wen's "national security" system and cross-strait foreign affairs officials are still dominated by Tsai Ing-wen, and even if their positions change, they will mainly continue Tsai Ing-wen's foreign affairs and cross-strait line to "seek stability in the security system."
However, in terms of internal affairs, it can be seen that many "ministers" are from southern Taiwan, or have served as Lai Qingde's right and left hand when he was the mayor of Tainan, "all of whom have the color that Lai Qingde brought from the south."
Taiwanese writer Liu Xinyue wrote an article saying that the "Tainan Gang" and the "Kaohsiung Gang" will become a major force in the Lai authorities.
Taiwan's "China Times" believes that most of the old faces in the new list are the old faces, but the chief financial officer has broken out as a dark horse, and it is obvious that the new "cabinet" wants to dilute the political flavor of being criticized for "independence, old people, and South Africa" and "factional spoils" by recruiting talents from industry and academia.
Zhao Shaokang, former chairman of the board of directors of the "China Broadcasting Group," said that Lai Qingde received only 40 percent of the votes, but he never consulted the opposition parties on personnel, "even if he did not even make a show."
Kuomintang "legislator" Wang Hongwei sarcastically said that the unsuccessful candidate for mayor of Taipei and former "Minister of Health and Welfare" General Chen Shih-chung was appointed as a "political councilor." How ironic it is that a candidate who has been rejected by the public can rely on Lai Ching-te to "borrow the corpse to resurrect his soul." This is how ironic. Obviously, Lai Qingde's "cabinet" candidates have made up their minds to work against the people.
"Cross-strait policy mainly depends on Lai Qingde's attitude." Zuo Zheng-tung, professor of the Department of Political Science of National Taiwan University, believes that personnel appointments will not fundamentally change cross-strait relations, and the key lies in Lai Ching-te's inaugural speech, observing his stance on cross-strait policy, and how to define cross-strait relations.
Zhang Yazhong, former professor of political science at Taiwan University, said that if Lai Ching-te still maintains the attitude of not accepting the "consensus of '92" and insisting that "the two sides of the strait are not subordinate to each other in terms of sovereignty," it will be very difficult for cross-strait relations to improve.
"United Daily News" bluntly said that the superstructure of cross-strait relations remains unchanged, and "whoever is the chairman of the committee and chairman of the board of directors is about the same."
Some media said worriedly that in Lai Qingde's administrative team, Zheng Lijun is the "vice president of the Executive Yuan," Li Yuan is the "minister of culture," Zheng Yingyao is the "minister of education," and Gu Lixiong, who will be the "minister of national defense," all four of them are classified as important standard-bearers in promoting "Taiwan independence."
A few of them are in charge of these major departments, and they will comprehensively implement the "de-Sinicization" education and the "Taiwan independence" consciousness movement, and then cooperate with the internal transformation of the military in an attempt to finally achieve a new "identity." This is extremely frightening to think about.
Cai's tenure of "Top Ten Public Grievances"
According to a report by Taiwan's China Times Electronic News on the 16th, when Tsai Ing-wen is about to step down on May 20, TPOC's "Taiwan Issues Research Center" summarized the online voice data of Tsai's second term (May 2020 to May 2024) through the QuickseeK rapid analysis of public opinion database to understand which issues aroused public discontent.
The results show (as shown in the figure above) that "nuclear energy/energy issues and electricity prices" ranked first with 3.12 million voices. During Tsai Ing-wen's tenure, there were four unforewarned blackouts, raising questions about power shortages and insufficient resilience of the power grid.
"Vaccine procurement/vaccination" ranked second with more than 2.98 million voices. The third place is "War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait", and the fourth to tenth places are the import of American Lai pigs, plagiarism of papers, lack of eggs, fraud, Taiwan-US relations, underworld/black gold, NCC and Zhongtian Guantai.
The industrial and commercial organizations on the island recently put forward seven major proposals to Lai Qingde, hoping that the new "cabinet" will be able to pragmatically deal with the problems of power and energy, cross-strait economic and trade, net-zero carbon emissions, five shortages (lack of water, electricity, land, labor, and talent), rationalization of the tax system, balanced industrial development, and structural transformation.
They talked about tourism in particular, suggesting that more destinations should be opened so that people on both sides of the strait can travel with each other and expand business opportunities.
Taiwan's "Federation of Industries" said that if the "five shortages" problem is not continuously improved, it may become a major obstacle to Taiwan's economic development, especially the drawbacks caused by the aging population are gradually emerging, the industry is facing a shortage of workers and talents, and the policy of foreign migrant workers and talents coming to Taiwan should be greatly relaxed to improve the structural problems.
Zhu Yunpeng, chair professor at Taiwan's Soochow University and former "political councilor of the Executive Yuan," wrote an article on the 16th saying that cross-strait, energy, and wages are the three major topics for the new authorities.
Some of these problems need to overcome ideological barriers, some need to analyze the real causes of the problem to find solutions, and some need to improve the efficiency of implementation, and all three things are not easy.
Hong Kong's China Review Press said on the 16th that before Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, the mainland put forward an answer sheet for Tsai Ing-wen to answer. Now, eight years later, Tsai Ing-wen's answer sheet is still not completed, or it is not qualified, and the consequence is that cross-strait relations have deteriorated, and Taiwan has been described by the Economist and other media as "the most dangerous place in the world".
At the same time, the mainland has made major progress in curbing "Taiwan independence" and opposing interference in cross-strait relations by external forces; the so-called "median line of the strait" drawn by the United States and Taiwan no longer exists, and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has launched regular "joint combat readiness patrols" around Taiwan at any time, and the military situation in the Taiwan Strait has undergone tremendous changes.
According to the article, the mainland has prejudged the content of Lai Qingde's inaugural speech on 20 May concerning cross-strait relations, and has also prepared countermeasures.
Lai Qingde must face this answer sheet seriously. If he gives an unqualified answer like Tsai Ing-wen, Lai must take the responsibility of going against the will of the people and provoking confrontation, "In that case, there may be monstrous waves in the Taiwan Strait at any time, and the new Taiwan authorities are really ready to deal with it?" ”
Source | Circumferential depth observation