One
On May 16, 2024, at the 9th meeting of the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the resignation of Truong Thi Mai from various positions and his resignation from work were discussed.
The conclusion was: It was agreed that Comrade Truong Thi Mai should resign as a member of the Political Bureau and a member of the Central Committee of the 13th CPV Central Committee.
Two
A thunderclap! Just like Wu Wensheng and Wang Tinghui were suddenly pushed to the end, Zhang Shimei's resignation was also unexpected by most people.
My first reaction was that Zhang Shimei also made a mistake...... What's wrong? There are usually no answers to be found in official messages, and those contents are written in the Spring and Autumn Period, and the language is vague and confusing.
I remembered a message I saw more than ten days ago, and I looked at it in connection with Zhang Shimei's resume, and I seemed to have a little clue.
The message was:
On May 4, 2024, Vietnamese Ministry of Public Security spokesperson Su Ensu said at a regular press conference that after further expanding the scope of investigation into the case of "bribery, bribery, and abuse of power in the performance of official duties" in Lam Dong province and some localities in Vietnam, on April 30, the investigating police agency of the Ministry of Public Security of Vietnam has prosecuted and approved the detention of former government office director Mai Tan Dung (the one pictured below) for the crime of "abuse of power in the performance of official duties".
According to reports, the Lam Dong ecotourism project, which was involved in a corruption scandal, has led to the dismissal of several officials, including Tran Van Hye, chairman of the Lam Dong Provincial People's Committee, who was arrested earlier this year on suspicion of abuse of power and accepting bribes.
The news and Zhang Shimei's resume are linked to "Lin Dong Province":
In 1980~1985, he was a cadre of the Communist Youth League of Lintong Province.
From 1985~1987, he was the vice principal of the Communist Youth League School of Lintong Province, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Children and Adolescents, a member of the Standing Committee of Lintong Province, and the director of the Propaganda and Training Department.
In 1987~1989, he was promoted to deputy secretary of the Communist Youth League of Lintong Province and member of the Civil Affairs Committee of the Lintong Provincial Party Committee.
In 1989~1991, he entered the Ho Chi Minh National Institute of Politics for further study.
In 1991~1993, he served as Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee of Lintong Province and a member of the Provincial Party Committee of Lintong Province, and entered the ranks of provincial and ministerial-level executives.
Her relationship with "Lam Dong Province" is too deep, Mei Jinyong had an accident in the "Lam Dong Province Ecotourism Project", which makes me think that Zhang Shimei is very likely to be implicated in the "Lam Dong Province Ecotourism Project", after all, she has worked in Lam Dong Province for more than ten years, and has been in charge of Lam Dong Province for two or three years.
Three
After excluding Truong Thi Mai, the only candidates for the new presidency of Vietnam are Pham Minh Chinh and Surin Lin, who are the most promising candidates?
Pham Minh Chinh did a good job as prime minister, far from the point where he had to be replaced. The prime minister has real power and does practical things, and it is not an inevitable ladder to the top leadership, so there is no way to stand in the way of any "prince". If it weren't for Nguyen Phu Trong's handpick, Pham Minh Chinh would not have been able to become president.
Su Lin has been in the public security system, worked for more than 40 years, and has been in the position of deputy minister and minister of public security for 14 years. Is it possible for Surin to become the president of the country and at the same time serve as the minister of public security? All I can say is unlikely. Throughout Vietnam's history, only Ho Chi Minh briefly served as foreign minister when he was president.
At the moment, from my personal point of view, Surin is the most likely to become the next president of the country.
One of the important contents of the ninth meeting of the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam is to propose a list of candidates for the president of the country and the chairman of the National Assembly.
Four
In 2021, the 13th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam elected 18 members of the Politburo.
Today, six have left the Politburo: No. 2 Nguyen Xuan Phuc, No. 4 Ong Dinh Hue, No. 5 Vu Van Thanh, No. 6 Truong Thi Mai, No. 7 Pham Binh Minh and No. 17 Tran Jun Anh.
The ninth session of the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) added four new Politburo members, and according to Vietnam's system, the president must go through a full five-year term of the Politburo, which means that the four who have joined halfway now will not become president at the 14th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2026.
Of the remaining 12 Politburo members, by the 14th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2026, except for the 82-year-old Nguyen Phu Trong, who may be "exempted from age", only three are under the age of 65 (everyone over 65 will quit the Politburo): Tran Thanh Minh, Dinh Tan Dung and Tran Kam Xiu.
They have a chance to become members of the Politburo at the 14th Party Congress, and if nothing else, all three will join the ranks of the "Troika" at the 14th Party Congress, and one of them is likely to succeed the aging Nguyen Phu Trong as Vietnam's new leader in the five-year cycle of the 14th Party Congress.
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