The two giants were delisted on the eve of the new real estate deal

Chinese businessman Taoluo was the runner-up

2024-05-17 15:20Published in Beijing, Huashang Taolue, producer, creator in the field of finance

The two giants were delisted on the eve of the new real estate deal

　　On the evening of May 13, Zhongnan Construction, a former 100-billion-level real estate company, bitterly mentioned the fate of A-share delisting because its stock price was lower than 1 yuan for 20 consecutive trading days, and accepted the prior notice of termination of listing from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

　　Two days later, in the evening, as the stock price closed at 0.43 yuan per share, Shimao Group, which has a larger tonnage, stepped into the same river for the same reason.

【1】

　　In his "Yesterday Like That East Flowing Water" a few days ago, when talking about the change of fate of the boss of the real estate company, Lin Zhong, the chairman of CIFI Real Estate, was once depressed and relied on beating himself to get himself back.

　　Lin Dong later complained to Hu Baosen, the boss of Henan Jianye, but he didn't expect that he was in his 50s and had to go through such changes and turns, and the white-haired Hu Baosen told him:

I'm about to turn 70 and it's not the same.

　　But if you want to score the "unexpected" of life fate, Xu Rongmao, the founder of Shimao Group, may have a higher score than Lin Dong and Hu Dong.

　　Mr. Xu was the first person to get rich in China's real estate industry, and before Xu Jiayin and Wang Jianlin were on the rich list, he had frequently appeared in the top 10 and top 5 in China on the Forbes rich list.

　　In 2006, when Mr. Xu was second only to Huang Guangyu on the Forbes China Rich List with a fortune of 17.4 billion, I had a visit to him for nearly three hours.

　　What impressed me the most was his low-key and cautiousness, especially his rejection of exposing himself.

　　Including personal questions such as management preferences, he always whispered, and he did not answer with "I", but "we".

　　He said that he was born in medicine and was most concerned about the long-term development of the company, as well as the business and financial health.

　　Since then, more than 10 years, the real estate industry has produced many heroes and the richest man, but Mr. Xu has been lonely and backward.

　　By 2018, Evergrande and Country Garden have sold more than 500 billion, Sunac has also exceeded 450 billion, but Shimao has less than 180 billion;

　　Xu Jiayin, Wang Jianlin, and Yang Guoqiang are the richest men in China, but Xu Rongmao's name is in the top 10, or even the top 20.

【2】

　　Things changed after 2018.

　　In 2019, Xu Rongmao's son, 41-year-old Xu Shitan, became the president of Shimao Group.

　　The new generation of Shimao, the style changed dramatically overnight.

　　In 2019, Shimao acquired more than 20 projects from real estate companies such as Tahoe, Vantone, Yuetai, and Mingfa.

　　At the end of the year, sales rose 48% to 260 billion yuan, and entered the top 10 in the industry.

　　In January 2020, when the haze of the epidemic was shrouded, Shimao joined hands with Fusheng Group, which was in debt crisis due to too sharp expansion and had a value of more than 800 billion yuan.

　　Xu Shitan personally went to Fuzhou to set the tone for this great rescue, which was described as "100 billion century cooperation":

Make 1+1 greater than 2.

　　In that year, Shimao's sales exceeded 300 billion, and its liabilities soared from more than 200 billion yuan before 2019 to 437.3 billion yuan.

　　Then in the second half of 2021, real estate turned downward, and in July 2022, a default announcement turned a new page in the big story turned into a big accident.

【3】

　　The name Shimao comes from Xu Shitan's "Shi", Xu Rongmao's "Mao".

　　Xu Shitan, who succeeded him for only two or three years, surpassed Xu Rongmao's twenty or thirty years in only two or three years, and then it took even shorter time, and it was unbearable to look back at Yuemingzhong.

　　Many times, when I saw the relevant news of Shimao, Mr. Xu, who was whispered back then, would come to mind, and then a voice would come out:

Zhuge was only cautious all his life.

　　In the second half of the sentence, of course, it is not that Lu Duan is not confused.

　　But is Xu Shitan confused?

　　He returned from overseas with a Master of Science in Real Estate from the University of Greenwich in the United Kingdom, and had been in the group for nearly 20 years before taking over.

　　Compared with being confused, he is more likely to be unconvinced, and he especially wants Shimao to re-shine.

　　Even if he is confused, Sun Hongbin, Hu Baosen, etc., etc., are they all confused?

　　In the aforementioned CIFI forest, I walked with him for a day in the Gobi in 2019, and when it came to real estate, he talked about risk management and quality at most.

　　At that time, CIFI was already operating more carefully, including diversifying risks by collaborating with other companies on projects.

　　Talking about why mainland developers don't follow the example of their Hong Kong counterparts to hold a large number of properties, he also joked,

Never want to be a capitalist, always rely on labor to earn labor fees.

　　Since last year, I have seen Mr. Lin in the circle of friends, there is no trace of depression, only the hard work of never giving up. He is more diligent than in the past to update the circle of friends, mainly for two things:

　　The most recent one was issued on May 1, saying that CIFI has delivered more than 16,000 new houses from January to April 2024.

　　First, he will also share the important projects or important progress built by CIFI. From his circle of friends, in the past two years, from affordable housing to high-end residences, CIFI has been working hard to build on behalf of others.

　　The meaning of agent construction is literal, to help others build on behalf of others, that is:

Management, quality, labor, earn labor fees.

【4】

　　In my interview, Zhu Jia of Bain Capital reviewed the lessons he learned when he assisted TCL in acquiring Thomson, the originator of color TVs, but was quickly replaced by LCD TVs by traditional color TVs, and finally made TCL fall into the quagmire:

In fact, I have seen the risk of CRT color TV being LCD, but I didn't expect the risk to come so quickly and so violently.

　　TCL Li Dongsheng's idea at that time was that there would be a relatively long process for the replacement and popularization of LCD, and TCL could use this window period to earn a few more years, and then use stronger strength to fight the LCD war.

　　As a result, before Thomson could turn around, traditional TV was declared dead.

　　Except for a very small number of people who are no longer running enterprises, but are engaged in crime and fraud, the owners of real estate companies who are now in danger are more or less like:

I saw the risk, but I didn't expect it to come so violently and so quickly.

　　Not only them, but many more people probably didn't expect it.

　　Different from the technological iteration of liquid crystal popularization, this risk itself is also more changeable and unpredictable.

【5】

　　Xu Rongmao and Lin Zhong are both from Fujian.

　　Fujian people love to sing a song, "Love will win", there is a famous sentence in the song:

Three points are destined, and seven points depend on hard work.

　　I don't know when, I don't know who it is, and after this, a sentence was added.

The remaining 90 points are a matter of luck.

　　Just when Shimao mentioned the fate of A-share delisting on May 15, the gossip about the country's real estate move was overwhelming, and all real estate stocks rose sharply.

　　Shimao Group, the flagship listed in Hong Kong, has skyrocketed.

　　On the evening of the 16th, many mainstream media released news that a number of ministries and commissions set up a joint working group to brew the launch of "major measures" for real estate.

　　On the 17th, the central bank and the State Administration of Financial Supervision issued three new real estate policies in a row:

　　Abolish the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level; The minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the second house is adjusted to not less than 25%; The interest rate on personal housing provident fund loans was lowered by 0.25 percentage points.

　　On the 17th, the national video conference on ensuring the delivery of housing was held in Beijing:

　　It is emphasized that it is necessary to do a good job in the risk disposal of unfinished commercial housing, solidly promote key tasks such as ensuring the delivery of housing and digesting the stock of commercial housing, and clarify:

In cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, the government may purchase some commercial housing at a reasonable price as appropriate.

　　As the news broke, real estate stocks skyrocketed again. If the housing market really reverses, the shareholders who are still locked in Shimao A shares can probably cry like this-

Oh my God, what kind of life is this?

　　——END——

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