When will the pension be announced in 2024? Truth be told, May 18 is also possible. However, judging from the law of pension notices in recent years, it will definitely be announced before May 31.
The notice of pension adjustment is a document jointly issued by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance to stipulate our pension adjustment requirements for the current year. In fact, this is also a measure for relevant departments to implement the State Council's government work report.
In the past six years, the announcement of the pension adjustment notice has been delayed from March to May. The 2023 announcements will be on May 26 and May 22, respectively. In fact, the two-year pension adjustment notice was written earlier, on May 16 and May 19 respectively.
In fact, there is a clear requirement in the annual pension adjustment notice, that is, the pension adjustment plan of each province should be reported to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance for the record before May 31. Therefore, it would be inappropriate if the adjustment notice was announced after May 31. Therefore, the pension adjustment notice will definitely be announced before the end of May.
What will be the pension increase in 2024? Will it go down?
Our national pension adjustment notice is such a history. In 1995, our country issued the first document on the adjustment of pensions, which was also a major change after the mainland promoted the reform of the enterprise pension insurance system. Adjustments made before 1994 are called retirement allowances. At that time, the overall level of pension adjustment was a certain percentage of the increase in the average wage of the local society. The caliber of the average social wage is the average wage of non-private units in urban areas, so the growth rate in those years was very high.
It was not until 2008 that the state established a new pension adjustment mechanism for corporate retirees. The new adjustment mechanism is determined by the State Council every year, and it has been 10% for eight consecutive years from 2008 to 2015.
In 2016, the state implemented a unified adjustment of pensions for retirees in enterprises, government agencies and institutions. The overall adjustment level began to change to 6.5% and then decreased year by year, from 5.5% in 2017 to 3.8% in 2023. What is the certainty of the increase in pensions?
The "Social Insurance Law" clearly stipulates that the level of basic old-age insurance benefits should be adjusted and increased in a timely manner in accordance with the growth of average social wages and prices. However, no specific peg ratio or regulation is given. From 2020 to 2023, in fact, the growth of residents' wage income has changed very much, but the increase in pensions has remained at 5%, 4.5%, 4% and 3.8%. This shows that the state is also adjusting people's income levels according to long-term planning.
In 2023, the wage income of mainland residents will increase by 7.1%, an increase of 2.2% over the previous year. In 2023, the consumer price index will increase by only 0.2% year-on-year. However, the pressure of aging in the mainland has begun to become prominent. In the 11 years of 1962~1972, nearly 300 million people were born in the mainland, and these people will gradually and rapidly enter the retirement age in recent years.
Like in 2023, the mainland's population will once again show negative growth, with the population over 60 years old increasing by 16.93 million over the previous year. Therefore, in order to cope with the pressure of pension, it is difficult for the pension increase in recent years to return to the rapid growth of the past. The pension growth rate in 2024, in terms of the above pressures, is likely to continue to decline. #今年养老金涨幅会进一步下降吗#
However, since 2016, the increase in pensions has first decreased by 1.0 percentage points in 2017. From 2018 to 2022, it will either not decline or it will decline by 0.5 percentage points. In 2023, the decline narrowed again to 0.2 percentage points. If you calculate it this way, this year's pension increase is likely to be between 3.6% ~ 3.8%. Even if there is an unexpected exceedance, the probability will not be less than 3.5%.
To sum up, the growth rate of pension is constrained by three factors: average social wage growth, price growth and pension affordability. It will be difficult to have the high-speed growth phase of the past in the future. #2024年养老金上涨##头条创作挑战赛#