Liu Xiaoguang
He is a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of Chinese
Wu Yuzhang Chair Professor
With the joint support of positive factors such as the implementation of high-level opening up policies, the diversification and adjustment of export markets, the improvement of international competitiveness of products, and the recovery of external demand, the foreign trade situation of the mainland will improve significantly in 2024, and the growth rate of exports and imports will rebound significantly. According to customs statistics, in the first four months of this year, the total import and export value of the mainland's trade in goods (the same below) was 13.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 7.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9%; imports were 6 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.8 percent; The trade surplus was 1.81 trillion yuan, narrowing by 0.7 percent. The mainland's foreign trade has made a strong start and has a good momentum, laying a solid foundation for achieving the goal of "quality and quantity stability" throughout the year.
The quality and efficiency of the mainland's foreign trade have been improved, and the potential of power has been released. From the perspective of export market structure, with the development and diversification of trade partnerships, the mainland's export situation to major markets will improve significantly in 2024, and the layout of diversified international markets will be deepened. Among them, ASEAN continues to maintain its position as China's largest trading partner. The total value of trade between the mainland and ASEAN was 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5 percent, accounting for 15.8 percent of the mainland's total foreign trade. exports to ASEAN were 1.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 10%; imports from ASEAN were 862.18 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1 percent. In US dollar terms, the total value of trade between the mainland and ASEAN was US$306.94 billion, an increase of 4.8 percent. Among them, exports were 185.56 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.3%; imports were 121.38 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.6%. Against the backdrop of a rebound in U.S. import demand, mainland exports to the U.S. have also improved significantly. Exports to the U.S. increased by 2.4 percent, while imports from the U.S. fell by 2.5 percent; The trade surplus with the United States was 692.41 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4 percent. In the same period, the mainland's total imports and exports to the Belt and Road countries reached 6.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.4 percent. It can be seen that the mainland's policy measures to stabilize and improve its major trade partners have achieved initial results in the recent past, and at the same time, the mainland's efforts to diversify and adjust its export markets have also provided strong resilience for export stability.
From the perspective of the structure of export commodities, the release of new momentum for foreign trade has accelerated. With the improvement of the international competitiveness of mainland products, the dominant characteristics of mechanical and electrical products are obvious, among which the export of automatic data processing equipment and its parts, integrated circuits and automobiles has maintained strong growth. From January to April, the mainland exported 4.62 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 6.9 percent, accounting for 59.2 percent of the total export value, maintaining a dominant position in the mainland's export commodities. Among them, the export value of automatic data processing equipment and its parts was 434.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%; the export value of integrated circuits was 355.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%; The export value of automobiles was 254.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%. At the same time, the mainland's exports of labor-intensive products also achieved relatively rapid growth. In the same period, the export of labor-intensive products was 1.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.9%. Among them, clothing and clothing accessories were 323.63 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3%; textiles 314.59 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6%; plastic products were 246.02 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8%.
From the perspective of external demand, the global economy will generally perform better than expected in 2024, and it is expected to achieve a soft landing, and the demand for mainland final goods and the resulting demand for mainland intermediate goods such as ASEAN and South America will stabilize and rebound. With high inflation in Europe and the United States effectively under control, in 2024, the EU's major central banks will shift from the tightening cycle of the past two years to the easing cycle according to their economic growth and employment situation, so as to ensure the smooth operation of the economy. Although there is still great uncertainty about the global economic recovery, the gradual transition of the European and American central banks to an easing cycle will help avoid a sharp slowdown in global consumption and investment, which will largely help stabilize the mainland's external demand and promote export growth. Under the condition of improved economic and trade relations, Europe and the United States are likely to complete the "last mile" of their inflation control target by increasing imports of general commodities from the mainland, so as to release their monetary policy space as soon as possible.
From a macroeconomic point of view, the improvement of the foreign trade situation will have a strong stimulating effect on short-term economic growth, and will also help to stabilize employment and other related goals. According to the current trend, from the perspective of economic circulation flow, the growth rate of trade flow (i.e., the total value of imports and exports) is expected to rebound, which is expected to play a positive role in maintaining the vitality of market players and boosting expectations; From the perspective of growth accounting, the growth rate of the trade surplus (i.e., net exports) has stabilized and rebounded, which has led to an increase in economic growth.
Looking ahead, with the support of favorable factors such as the recovery of foreign demand, the optimization of foreign trade policies, and the diversification of export markets, the trend of stabilizing and rebounding in mainland foreign trade formed since the end of last year is expected to be further continued, and exports are expected to maintain steady growth in 2024. At present, there is still instability and uncertainty in the global economic recovery situation, which increases the volatility of external demand, and also leads to the monthly data performance of mainland exports showing certain fluctuation characteristics, and the import and export market is still in the stage of fierce adaptation and adjustment, but the overall trend and development trend of the foreign trade situation has been formed. The mainland's foreign trade has shown super resilience and potential, and we should maintain confidence in this and avoid the interference of short-term fluctuations. In the next stage, with the continuous introduction of policies to maintain the stability and improve the quality of the mainland's foreign trade, the international cooperation agreement will continue to release foreign trade dividends, and the pull effect of the low base effect will be superimposed, and the mainland's export growth will be generally supported. As the development of foreign trade has become more stable, the mainland's economic growth target and employment stabilization target have also had a more solid foundation.
Article source: Guangming Daily
WeChat editor: Zhang Jingjing
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