The Fed is now using a kind of interest rate cut psychological warfare, the more the market wants to cut interest rates, the looser financial conditions, and the more difficult it will be to cut interest rates in the end, and the market generally believes that the Fed will only cut interest rates once this year, or in the fourth quarter. Treasury yields will remain elevated, while U.S. equities may continue to be more attractive than bonds. The release of the new national nine articles has promoted the maturity of the market and boosted the long-term confidence of the market. The export data exceeded expectations, indicating the resilience of overseas demand and the strong competitiveness of mainland products. Prices have also recovered to some extent as the decline in food prices has narrowed.
The top five main net inflows into the industry sector: banks, big finance, real estate, new energy vehicle parts, nonferrous metals · Magnesium; The top five main net inflows in the concept sector: 5G, servers, cloud computing data centers, optical communications, and smart cities; The top 10 main net inflows of individual stocks: Wanfeng Aowei, Unisplendour, Ping An Bank, Industrial Fortune Union, Ping An of China, Vanke A, Luxshare Precision, Zhongji Innolight, China State Construction, and ZTE
A number of listed pig companies have disclosed their April sales briefings. The average sales price of commercial pigs is in a state of month-on-month increase, and the industry is returning to the breakeven line of breeding. As pig prices continue to rise, the market has been discussing the inflection point of the pig cycle one after another. With the change in the rhythm and amplitude of pig production capacity, the inflection point of the pig cycle is approaching, and the reproductive efficiency is an indicator that cannot be ignored, and the actual market supply may be higher than expected. This year, the price of live pigs will maintain an overall upward trend, and the pig industry may be in a low profitability for a period of time in the future.
Since hitting a low of $1,614 per ounce at the end of September 2022, the international gold price has started this round of upward movement. At the same time, global central banks are increasing their holdings of gold. According to the World Gold Council's Q1 2024 Global Gold Demand Trends report, global central banks maintained a net buying trend in Q1, with global official gold reserves increasing by 290t. Industry insiders said that under the influence of factors such as currency over-issuance and geopolitical situation, the central bank's purchase of gold may still be a general trend. Riding bulls and bears believes that under the disturbance of trading factors, short-term gold prices are facing the risk of a correction, but they are still optimistic about their performance in the medium and long term, and geopolitical issues are still very bad!
Recently, the frequent test flights of eVTOLs have also stimulated the nerves of the capital market. Regarding the future development expectations of eVTOLs, eVTOLs are currently in their infancy and are expected to usher in explosive commercialization in the next 2 to 6 years. The "low-altitude economy +" model is being continuously implemented in more application scenarios, such as emergency rescue, aviation consumption, general aviation transportation, traditional operations and other fields. In the low-altitude field, fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, fixed-wing/rotary-wing drones, eVTOLs and other product forms are different. For the expectation that the "outbreak period" will come earlier, it is expected that 2026 and 2027 will usher in a full-scale explosion of the market.
In 2024, the overall valuation level of the communications industry will return to the highest level since 2016. Communications has always been at the forefront of ICT technology innovation, and this round of AI is no exception. The high prosperity of computing power brought by AI has formed a consensus expectation in the market, and the follow-up will continue to follow up on the delivery of AI track and the realization of performance, and the sector is optical modules. Most of the communication manufacturing industry ushered in a rebound in demand, especially the sea-oriented Internet of Things modules, controllers, power informatization, etc., the valuation is significantly lower than the popular track that has formed a high prosperity, which is a valuation depression. Riding the bull and watching the bear believes that it can grasp the two main lines of the performance of the high-prosperity track of the communication industry, and the valuation repair brought about by the recovery of demand.
The Shanghai Composite Index has a clear daily top parting signal, and there is no sign of stabilizing after the 60-minute continuous top divergence, and it is not ruled out that there will be adjustment expectations, but there is still a gap below and support near 3100 points. In the short term, there is no need to panic excessively, wait patiently for the signal of the trend turn, and after the short-term shock break, it may point to 3200 points. The expectation of RRR cuts or even interest rate cuts in the second quarter has risen again, and international investment institutions continue to be optimistic about the A-share market, and the index may be adjusted to 3200 points. In terms of strategy, under the stock game, the plate rotates too fast, insisting on low absorption and not chasing up.
The rise and fall of the ChiNext index are the "leaders", the market falls, the ChiNext index falls the most, and the market rebounds The ChiNext index rises the most. Recently, the market has continued to fluctuate, mainly due to weak financial data in April, weak economic data expectations, and a cautious tone of the first-quarter monetary policy report, which may cause some disruption to the short-term market. With the intensive introduction of stable growth policies, the process of economic recovery is expected to accelerate, and incremental funds may return to the stage of grasping the rebound, and the amount of attention can be amplified simultaneously. In the medium term, the market rally is not over yet, and if there is a shock adjustment or a benign adjustment on the way up.