The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again, the sentiment of the external market has improved, and the US stock market has hit a record high, which directly detonated the bullish atmosphere of the peripheral market, and the global stock market collectively cheered up, and the Asia-Pacific region also opened higher on Thursday. A-shares followed the trend of higher opening in the peripheral market, and the stocks in the two cities rebounded, but the trading volume failed to continue to expand, and it did not change the dilemma of the suppression of the moving average, and it is still mainly following the trend. This position is still mainly strategic operation, do not chase the rise and fall, and wait patiently for the moment of breaking the market.
With the gradual easing of policies, it is expected that market confidence will be boosted, driving sales to pick up, the industry bottoming is expected to be accelerated, and the valuation of the sector may be gradually repaired. Real estate destocking is expected to be promoted through "trade-in", which is expected to promote the shift in market expectations, and the bottom of real estate stock prices and valuations has emerged. Recently, the sales of second-hand houses have picked up, and housing prices have also bottomed out and stabilized, while superimposing the recent policy ideas to shift to the demand side to inventory, and the intensive relaxation of urban purchase restrictions, it is expected that the market heat will gradually be transmitted from second-hand houses to new houses, thereby promoting the real estate market to gradually return to the right track, and the natural demand of the real estate industry is expected to come.
The three major indexes collectively opened higher, and more than 1,000 stocks fell in the two cities, and the theme plates performed strongly in copper cable high-speed connections, communication equipment, flying cars and other sectors, while household appliances, ships, winemaking and other sectors performed poorly. The phosphorus chemical sector strengthened at the beginning of the session, Jinzhengda and Yuntu Holdings, and the domestic monoammonium phosphate market as a whole showed an upward trend, of which the price of industrial monoammonium phosphate was 5935 yuan/ton, up 6.04% compared with the day before yesterday, and 8% higher than the beginning of the month, and the inventory was at a historical low in the past three years. Low-altitude economic concept stocks rose again, Shanggong Shenbei 2 boards, Jianxin shares, Wanfeng Aowei, etc., followed up, and Beijing Fengtai District held a low-altitude economic industry innovation release conference. By 2025, there will be no less than 200 core enterprises in Fengtai District, with an output value of more than 100 billion yuan.
In the five years from 2023 to 2027, the high-speed copper cable market will continue to expand at an astonishing compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%. The real estate sector continued to be strong, I love my home limit, Hefei urban construction, Nandu property, etc., Hefei further adjusted and optimized the real estate policy, proposed the implementation of housing subsidies, promote the circulation of the second-hand housing market and other measures. The PCB sector fluctuated higher, Shengyi Electronics rose by more than 10%, Shenghong shares, Zhongfu Circuit, etc. rose highly, and Nvidia GB200 shipments will reach 900,000 in 2025. The agency pointed out that the impact of GB200 design changes on HDI usage is that the PCB value of a single GPU is more than 2 times that of the H series, and the HDI value of a single GPU is more than 5 times that of the H series chips.
The Shanghai Composite Index did not continue to rise after opening higher on Thursday, and failed to break through the suppression of the 5-day and 10-day lines. With the issuance of ultra-long treasury bonds and the implementation of the real estate trade-in strategy, the macro sentiment has also improved significantly, and A-shares still have no active breakthrough trend, maintaining the previous view: "hold long, do not chase higher, buy after a sharp adjustment". In the afternoon, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3140 points.
The ChiNext index was suppressed by the 5-day line on Thursday and failed to break through, so even if it opened high, it failed to rise sharply after the opening, but the stocks in the two cities showed an obvious "blood effect", and the overall market was still strong. In May, the news was concentrated in real estate developers, although commodities were differentiated, but the chemical, electricity, natural gas and other sectors were affected seasonally, and there was an obvious rebound trend. In the afternoon, pay attention to whether the ChiNext index can stabilize above 1840 points.
Lunchtime highlights:
1. As of May 15, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 793.316 billion yuan, a decrease of 590 million yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 702.007 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.051 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1495.323 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.641 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
2. The People's Bank of China carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%, the same as before. There is a reverse repurchase of 2 billion yuan due today