The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly, and the market may be expected to be repaired in the future

Public Securities Journal

2024-05-16 22:07Published on the official account of Jiangsu Dazhong Securities News

Image source: Visual China

The A-share market showed a stable trend after a volatile performance on Thursday. Among them, stocks related to the real estate industry chain rose significantly, promoting the stability of the Shanghai Composite Index at the end of the session. Market participants believe that the performance of real estate stocks is outstanding, while the household appliances sector has seen a pullback, and the market is expected to repair the home improvement, home appliances and other wrongful killing sectors. It is recommended to pay attention to large stock indices with stable fundamentals and strong dividend paying ability, such as the SSE 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index, and appropriately reduce the position allocation to small-capitalization stocks to balance the risk.

Market sentiment has picked up

Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up and hit a record high, technology stocks generally rose, most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.03%. Affected by this, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, and the ChiNext Index fluctuated and rose in early trading, rose rapidly near noon, and fell back in the afternoon, and rebounded at the end of the session. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3122.40 points, up 0.08%; The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 9604.13 points, up 0.21%; The GEM index was reported at 1844.21 points, up 0.29%. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 847.788 billion yuan, an increase of 86.716 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

Judging from the net trading of institutional funds, the main funds of Shanghai and Shenzhen had a net outflow of 3.421 billion yuan on Thursday. Among them, the net outflow of the main funds of the ChiNext was 2.042 billion yuan, the net inflow of the main funds of the CSI 300 constituent stocks was 3.455 billion yuan, and the net outflow of the main funds of the Science and Technology Innovation Board was 52 million yuan. In terms of individual stocks, more than 2,000 stocks received a net inflow of main funds on Thursday, of which 36 shares received a net inflow of more than 100 million yuan. Wanfeng Aowei's main capital had the largest net inflow, with a net inflow of 840 million yuan; The top stocks with net inflows of main funds include Unisplendour, Ping An Bank, Industrial Fortune Federation, Ping An of China, and Vanke A, with net inflows of 798 million yuan, 660 million yuan, 547 million yuan, 439 million yuan, and 393 million yuan respectively.

Wang Xu, senior investment adviser at Jufeng Investment Advisor, said that the stock market showed a volatile recovery on Thursday, and the rising expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut had a positive impact on domestic market sentiment, and the rise in technology, cyclical industries and financial sectors pushed the market up intraday. The consumer sector has diverged, but overall market sentiment is showing signs of recovery.

The real estate sector led the gains

The A-share market fluctuated as a whole, with real estate stocks outstanding, with nearly 10 stocks such as Special Services, Zhongtian Services, Hefei Urban Construction, Binjiang Group, and I Love My Home rising by more than 10%. Bank stocks were boosted by real estate, with Ruifeng Bank, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo, and Bank of Suzhou rising more than 2%.

The building materials and building decoration sectors were among the top gainers, with the establishment of research institutes, city-state shares, Baoying shares, Jianyi Group, Hainan Ruize and other daily limits. After the continuous rise, the household appliances sector continued to fall, Ecovacs, TCL Zhijia, etc. fell more than 7%, Changhong Meiling, Xiaoxiong Electric, Wanhe Electric, etc. fell more than 3%.

Qin Hong, an analyst at Jin Bailin Consulting, believes that the recent positive policies of the real estate industry chain have continued to be launched, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions and the marginal improvement of core cities, especially the new measures of real estate destocking, such as the acquisition of new houses as public rental housing, which will help improve the supply and demand of the real estate market and have a positive impact on the A-share market. The main line of investment in the market has gradually become clear, including the real estate industry chain, the overseas industry chain, AI, low-volatility dividends, military industry and pharmaceuticals and other sectors, which have been repeatedly active recently and have become the focus of capital attention. At the same time, the rotation pattern between different investment main lines has also emerged, such as when real estate stocks led the rally on Thursday, other sectors such as the overseas industrial chain and military stocks have been adjusted, avoiding the involution competition of funds.

There may be recovery expectations in the market outlook

Fan Jituo, chief strategy analyst of Cinda Securities, said that the seasonal pattern in May shows that the market style may be biased towards small-cap growth, and it is expected that the market may switch between high and low styles in the short term, and the growth sector that has overfallen in the early stage may make up for the rise. However, the general trend of value style remains unchanged, and the resonance of valuation, policy, and annual style may drive a gradual strengthening of value style. The current market environment is more favorable for value stocks, with allocation opportunities in cyclical sectors and financial and real estate sectors, while growth sectors are volatile, but sectors such as AI and new energy may have opportunities to rebound under certain conditions. The consumer sector needs to focus on specific areas that are in line with the current economic environment.

Guosheng Securities analysis pointed out that the recent stock market index has experienced shocks in the high area, although the market has adjusted to a certain extent, but the overall adjustment has remained moderate, and the key uptrend support level has not been broken. In addition, the current positive investment climate in the global market, especially the increasing attractiveness of RMB assets, has further boosted the confidence of market participants and supported the market to maintain its bullish trend. Based on this, Guosheng Securities predicts that after a continuous shrinkage adjustment, the stock market index is expected to usher in a repairing rise, and if the market shows strong upward momentum, it may hit a new high in the future. In terms of investment hotspots, Guosheng Securities suggests that investors can continue to pay attention to large-scale stock indexes with stable fundamentals and strong dividend paying ability, such as the SSE 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index, and actively seek investment opportunities in these areas. At the same time, appropriately reduce the position allocation of small-capitalization stocks and individual stocks to balance the risk.

Reporter Huang Du

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