At this moment, the whole country of the Philippines is immersed in the joy of victory! On April 15, they did what they considered to be a great thing: 300 members of their organization, the Atin Ito ("ours"), broke through the blockade of Chinese coast guard vessels and delivered supplies to Filipino fishermen 50 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal.
Is the real situation really what the Philippines says it is?
According to Philippine media reports, on the morning of April 15, 200 volunteers and 100 fishermen, including a Roman Catholic priest and more than a dozen journalists and foreign observers, were recruited by the Philippine non-governmental organization "Atinito" to set off from Masinlok in Zambales Province in the Philippines on five Bancas and 100 small wooden boats to Panatag Shoal (Scarborough Shoal) to prepare to deliver supplies to Filipino fishermen fishing there. The Philippine Coast Guard and Navy each deployed a patrol vessel to monitor activists and developments from a distance.
Before departure, Pastor Paul Virgil David also prayed for the fleet:
"Let us pray to God that there will be no incidents in the fleet of five civilian sea-going vessels and one hundred small fishing vessels that are currently sailing through our exclusive economic zone to deliver fuel and food to fishermen in the nearby seas."
About 200 people on five crab boats waved tiny Philippine flags and shouted "The West Philippine Sea is ours!" A few hours later, a Philippine Coast Guard vessel joined the flotilla on the high seas, distributing food and fuel to Filipino fishermen there, and dropping a dozen orange buoys marked "The West Philippine Sea is Ours."
Rafaela David, president of the Atinitto Alliance, said: "Despite the massive blockade imposed by China, we managed to break through their illegal blockade and reach Scarborough Shoal to provide our fishermen with essential fuel and food, eventually distributing 1,000 litres of diesel fuel and 200 food parcels. Mission accomplished! "This is a testament to the ingenuity, resourcefulness and bravery that Filipinos have shown in the face of tough challenges."
After dropping diesel and food parcels, the main fleet will no longer go to Scarborough Shoal, because Chinese coast guard and militia ships have driven away fishermen who were supposed to receive a new round of supplies there.
Emman Hizon, one of the organizers, told GMA News Online: "Our captain received reports that there are no Filipino fishermen left at Scarborough Shoal now because the Chinese coast guard, militia and other maritime vessels drove them away. Therefore, there was no need for the main flotilla to get closer. ”
Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) officials said that "even if the fleet did not get very close to Scarborough Shoal, the assistance mission of the non-governmental organization Atinitto Alliance was already a victory for the Philippines." ”
Brigadier General Jay Tarriela, spokesman for the PCG West Philippine Sea, said the organization's job can be considered complete once it is able to resupply Filipino fishermen in the Scarborough Shoal area.
Videos showed a Philippine Coast Guard plane flying around Scarborough Shoal on a "maritime area awareness flight" that day, which should have been more than 50 nautical miles, before the plane was warned by the Chinese coast guard. Eight Chinese coast guard vessels, 10 suspected Chinese maritime militia vessels and the Chinese Navy ship Qujing (port number 668) were found around Scarborough Shoal.
What is the truth of the matter?
On the day that the "Atinitto Alliance" left for Scarborough Shoal, Ray Powell, a former US Air Force official who was in charge of monitoring the situation in the Philippines, was also on patrol ships in the Philippines.
He said that one Chinese Navy vessel, eight Chinese coast guard vessels and 34 Chinese militia vessels were around Scarborough Shoal to block Philippine civilian missions. In addition to distributing supplies to fishermen in the area, they (the Atinito) placed 12 symbolic orange buoys with the words "WPS ATIN ITO!" (The West Philippine Sea is ours!) ）。
But Ray Powell did not say where the Philippine fleet would place supplies.
The Chinese side denied the Philippine side's claim, calling it "touching porcelain" and "setting off the atmosphere!" The Global Times, citing sources familiar with the matter, said that the Chinese coast guard carried out a drill on May 14, and began to lay a number of defensive lines on May 15, and the Philippine "Bagakai" (MRRV4410) official ship carried a number of Philippine fishing boats to a place more than 50 nautical miles away from China's Huangyan Island, and saw that the Chinese coast guard ship began to hesitate, and on the morning of May 16, the Philippine official ship began to retreat with the Philippine fishing boat to the Philippine mainland, and has now retreated 15 nautical miles. ”
According to multiple videos, multiple pictures and multiple messages, the Philippine fleet did put supplies to Filipino fishermen in the South China Sea that day, but it certainly did not enter within 50 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal! Because China has deployed one warship, eight Chinese coast guard ships and more than 30 militia ships around Scarborough Shoal, the small wooden boats of the Philippine civil society organization will definitely not be able to enter, let alone water cannons and warships.
The Philippines organized the operation for three purposes:
1. Delivering fuel and food to Filipino fishermen in the South China Sea;
2. Launching "The West Philippine Sea is Ours" in the exclusive economic waters of the Philippines! buoys;
3. Conduct a "maritime area awareness navigation" in the waters near Scarborough Shoal to observe China's response;
Although the Philippines has achieved a little "victory" this time, it also reflects his timid side: he does not dare to face China head-on.
Next, it cannot be ruled out that the Philippines will carry out a larger-scale "porcelain" operation, because it believes that it has a trump card - the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty". The treaty stipulates that if a Filipino soldier dies in a conflict with China, the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty could be triggered, allowing U.S. forces to intervene in the conflict.