Sudden midday! A-share diving, the two major benefits can't bring A-shares, and domestic capital smashes the market?

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2024-05-16 16:33Posted on the official account of Guangdong Kancai

Today's A-shares are less than expected, last night the United States released April CPI data greatly boosted market sentiment, the dollar index, the U.S. 10 bond yields plummeted, the U.S. stock Nasdaq directly reached a new high, to A-shares here but pulled a lump, midday diving market once turned green. Even if it is not compared with the US stocks, the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index has rebounded by nearly 20% in this wave, and it is still up more than 1% today, while the Shanghai Composite Index has struggled to rise by 1%, and the midday dive has also brought Hong Kong stocks down.

It is difficult to understand that A-shares are weak in this environment of "domestic real estate policy and foreign Fed interest rate cut expectations", and the midday dive is also inexplicable.

A-shares can sometimes buck the trend and be stronger, and sometimes they are inexplicably weak. We believe that it may be because in the current situation of the stock game, downstream capital, retail investors and other active funds have become the main force of short-term pricing, floating capital, retail investors are more emotional, like to look at the technical side, coupled with the current various big V in power, views and emotions have strong contagion, so that the medium and long-term logic in the pricing power of A-shares is weak, short-term factors in the pricing power of A-shares are strong, short-term factors overwhelm the long-term logic. Moreover, the style of A-shares is more extreme, one style rises sharply, and the other style plummets, and when the style is switched, a large amount of funds are high and low, and the adjustment of the main line in the early stage will inevitably dampen market sentiment and make the disk chaotic.

After complaining, let's take a look at today's blockbuster news:

U.S. 10 bond yields plunged

Last night, the US released April CPI rose by 3.4% year-on-year, estimated at 3.4%, and the previous value was 3.5%; U.S. CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in April, with an estimate of 0.4% and a previous value of 0.4%. In the month, excluding volatile food and energy prices, core consumer prices in the United States rose 3.6% year-on-year in April, in line with estimates. Core consumer prices rose 0.3% month-on-month in April, in line with estimates. In addition, U.S. retail sales in April were flat month-on-month, with an estimate of 0.4% and a previous reading of 0.7%.

After the release of the data, the U.S. dollar index and the U.S. 10 bond yields plunged, the U.S. 10 bond yields fell below the 4.4% mark, the U.S. stocks opened higher, the Dow closed up 0.88%, the Nasdaq closed up 1.40% and hit a new high, of which AI performed well, Nvidia rose more than 3.5%, ultra-micro computer rose more than 15%, and Dell Technologies rose more than 11%.

We have emphasized before that the rebound in the US economic data in the first quarter is mainly due to the sharp pullback in the US 10 bond yields after November last year to stimulate the economic rebound and the support of consumption from the wealth effect brought about by the sharp rise in US stocks, and the US 10 bond yields soared in April and once rose above 4.7%, which will inevitably suppress the US economy, and the pullback of US stocks will also weaken market confidence, and it is difficult for the US economy to continue to strengthen.

While both the US employment data and inflation data may have been artificially adjusted, the trend does reflect the lack of further strength in the US economy, as evidenced by the US PMI.

But now that the yield on U.S. 10 bonds has fallen below 4.4% and U.S. stocks have reached new highs, this may stimulate the U.S. economy again, and the U.S. economy may bring inflation down in a repeated pull, which requires the Fed not to cut interest rates easily.

The real estate sector continues to skyrocket

Yesterday, it was reported that "relevant departments are considering allowing local governments across the country to buy unsold housing stock", which drove the real estate sector to rise. After the market, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Lin'an District, Hangzhou City, issued an announcement a few days ago, and the Lin'an District People's Government decided to purchase a batch of commercial housing for public rental housing within the scope of Lin'an District, which is equivalent to confirming the rumor.

Today, the party group of the National Development and Reform Commission of the Communist Party of China wrote an article in the magazine "Qiushi" saying that it is necessary to strengthen the guarantee of economic security capabilities. Improve the supervision system for real estate enterprises, promote the construction of affordable housing, accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

The People's Government of Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture in Yunnan Province issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry (Trial)", encouraging the acquisition of stock housing as affordable housing or talent housing Counties and cities with a de-industrialization period of more than 24 months will no longer build new affordable housing.

Stimulated by relevant news, today's A-share real estate sector, Hong Kong domestic real estate stocks have skyrocketed, Rongsheng Development, Hefei Urban Construction, Binjiang Group and other shares have risen by the limit, and driven by building materials, home furnishing, banking, insurance and other sectors to rise.

Finally, a brief look at the market, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.29%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.48%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.68%. The turnover of the two cities increased to 0.84 trillion yuan, and the rise and fall were basically half.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently

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