Egg market: Recently, domestic egg prices show a trend of "off-season", although, according to the fundamentals of market purchase and sales, the current stage of egg production capacity is at a high level, and consumer demand is in the off-season, but, guided by emotions, the recent egg price has shown a significant upward trend!
According to the feedback of netizens, in southwest Shandong, in recent days, the price of ordinary brown shell eggs in local rural markets and supermarkets has risen to 3.9~4 yuan/jin, and during the May Day holiday, the price of eggs is only 3.4~3.5 yuan/jin, and the price increase has reached about 0.5~0.6 yuan/jin!
At the same time, according to the analysis of institutional data, at present, in the domestic production and marketing market, the price of eggs in the production area has risen to 3.84 yuan/jin, and the price in the sales area has risen to about 3.74 yuan/jin, which has increased by about 0.55 yuan/jin compared with the beginning of the month!
On the one hand, the breeding end continues to lose money, the price mentality increases, and the mentality of resisting low prices increases; On the other hand, the post-holiday demand follow-up improvement, the market replenishment demand increased, and the traders' efforts to receive goods became stronger, especially when the Dragon Boat Festival was approaching, the operating rate of some food enterprises may increase, the demand for early stocking increased, and the phenomenon of low-cost egg cold storage in the market increased!
However, due to the lack of capacity of the downstream market to undertake the price increase of eggs, and the purchase and sales of food companies have gradually slowed down after centralized replenishment. Due to the high production capacity of eggs, the downstream purchase and sales are gradually deserted, and the risk of mildew in all aspects of production and marketing increases, it is expected that egg prices will fall under pressure!
Oil price adjustment: At 12 o'clock tonight, the 10th oil price adjustment of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to fall by 235 yuan and 225 yuan / ton!
According to institutional data analysis, on May 15, the 10th working day of this cycle, the reference overnight crude oil prices fell sharply, U.S. oil fell by $1.1, cloth oil fell by $0.98, the domestic crude oil change rate was -4.85%, gasoline and diesel prices fell by 235 yuan and 225 yuan / ton respectively, equivalent to 92/95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel fell 0.18~0.19 yuan. (The actual price adjustment range is mainly based on official information)
After the fall in oil prices, the increase in oil prices during the year also fell sharply, from the analysis of institutional data, in the course of 10 oil price adjustments in the year, three times down, 5 times up, after the rise and fall deduction, the oil price rose by 570 yuan/ton during the year, and the 92nd gasoline still increased by 0.47~0.48 yuan/liter compared with the beginning of the year!
According to the author's analysis, the oil price has dropped significantly, falling by 0.18~0.19 yuan per liter, and some oil products have fallen by more than 0.2 yuan/liter, and the logic of supporting the decline in oil prices is mainly under pressure from the international crude oil market!
Due to the high level of interest rates in the United States during the cycle and the improvement of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices fell sharply, although the Palestinian-Israeli issue has not yet ended, and the United States has the expectation of interest rate cuts, which inhibits the room for further decline in oil prices, but yesterday the market crude oil prices fell again, which also reflects the situation of the market long and short convergence!
In particular, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut continue to decline, the fear that the United States may further exacerbate the inflationary pressure in the United States may further exacerbate the United States, and the market's expectations for weak global energy consumption continue to rise, which also exacerbates the decline in crude oil prices!
However, from a rational point of view, due to the peak season of crude oil consumption, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East still exists, the crude oil market still has some support, the market lacks room for further decline, the next oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on May 29, oil prices may have the risk of rebound!
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