The stock market is unpredictable, and no investor can guarantee that they will always be invincible in the stock market. There are many excellent investors in the market, and investment strategies and methods can be used as references, but it is important to understand that even the essence of other people's ideas will always be someone else's, and the most important thing is how to find the most suitable for yourself in the vast sea of theories and transform them into your own investment style, which requires a long time of practice and accumulation. Therefore, after investors enter the actual combat, they must pay attention to the accumulation and integration of knowledge, constantly adjust the investment strategy according to their own preferences, and will definitely form their own investment style over time.
From a big loss to the present stock speculation for a living, I have summed up five experiences, every word, and I can avoid a few detours if I understand it:
1. The logic of margin call and entry is the same. It is normal to enter the quilt cover. What does the approach duvet cover indicate? It means that the market does not recognize the previous expectations, that is, the perception may be wrong, and the previous logic should be re-examined. If you are firmly optimistic, then the logic of the next margin replenishment is the same as entering the market, what you need to think about is, if this position is short, will you still enter the market?
2. The trend peaks and accelerates. In an upward trend, the valuation reshaping that changes by the logic of the industry often promotes the rise of the white horse in the industry, when will the trend end? One signal is that the large-capitalization trend leader continues to accelerate upward, indicating that more people have come in, and it is not far from the top at this time.
3. It is necessary to think about continuous big losses, and it is not necessary to rush to return to the capital. There is a very strange phenomenon that consecutive big losses often occur after consecutive profits. The market belongs to the objective existence, the risk will still exist, and the confidence of people will naturally increase greatly after continuous profits, and it is easy to underestimate the risk of the market, so the decision to float is made. If this state continues, then there will be losses, and you need to stop, because it is taboo to rush back to your capital.
4. MDCD is used for short-term, and the parameter adjustment is more sensitive. As a long-term reference indicator, if you want to use it for short-term, you need to adjust its parameters, which can be set to half of the original parameters. If you want to be more sensitive, you can continue to scale it down according to your needs.
5. Fear the market and control greed. Stock trading is a practice, the mentality is greater than the technology, and you can't rush it. The market is objective, and there is a clear distinction between love and hate when it is good and bad times. When the market encounters a correction, the bottom is unclear, so it is necessary to follow the trend and wait and see. When the market comes to a positive upward trend, we naturally have to follow it, not predicting the top and bottom, just following.
China's stock market: Keeping in mind the "hammer line to buy, hanging line to sell", the easier the method, the more profitable
The buying point when there is a low hammer
Morphological characteristics: The characteristics of the hammer line pattern are that its K-line body is very small, the upper shadow is very short or even none, there is a long lower shadow, and the length of the lower shadow should be much longer than the length of the body, and the general requirement is 2-3 times the length of the body. The yin and yang of a small entity are not important, and their technical meaning is the same.
Technical implications: The hammerhead line is in the late stages of a downtrend. The frenzied selling of the day was effectively curbed and finally closed at a higher price. At this time, investors are worried about going short. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, a bullish hammer is generated, and the situation is even more favorable to the upside. If the stock price does not fall below the lowest price of the hammer in the movement after the occurrence of the hammer line, then it can be used as a signal of a bottom.
Interpretation of the real market: As shown in Figure 1-1, before the hammer line, the stock price decline will break the previous low, indicating that the downward trend will continue; On the day of the hammer line, the stock price fell sharply, but finally closed with the hammer line, and bargain buying began to enter the market in a big way. The appearance of the hammer line is not an accurate entry point, but only a warning that the stock price may have bottomed, and it needs to be verified by the next day's close for conservative reasons. If the daily line closes the next day, stands firmly on the body of the hammer line, and verifies the reversal signal, you can buy. After that, there will be a slight fluctuation in the stock price, but it is supported by the price level of the hammer body, and an upward trend is formed.
Note: After the hammer line appears, you need to wait for the next day to add yang to confirm it, if it is a yin hammer line, you need to confirm it the next day, and if it is a yang hammer line, you need to add yang to confirm it on the next day. The Yin Hammer takes a longer time to repair. The yang hammer line at the low level is better than the negative hammer line, and the hammer line at the low level should wait for the confirmation of the pullback, and if the stock price pulls back to the shadow line of the hammer line at half of the position to stop falling and rise, you can intervene.
The selling point when there is a high hanging man
Morphological characteristics: the hanging line is in the late stage of an uptrend, the upper shadow line is very short or even none, the length of the lower shadow line should be much longer than the length of the entity, the general requirement is 2~3 times the length of the entity, the yin and yang of the small entity is not important, and its technical meaning is the same.
Technical implications: The hanging man is in the late stage of an uptrend, and its appearance indicates that the rise in stock prices has come to an end and the market will change. If the small body of the hanging is a negative candle and the opening of the next day is lower, it will make the bear market meaning of the hanging line confirmed, so investors should be vigilant when they see this K-line pattern at the high price of the stock price, it is best to reduce their positions, and leave the market immediately once they find that the stock price continues to slide downward.
Interpretation of the real market: As shown in Figure 2-1, the hanging man line is preceded by a rising market of about 50%. The stock price fluctuated violently on the day of the hanging man, forming a long lower shadow. If you take into account the previous extreme rally and active trading, the reversal must be very violent, then the emergence of this hanging line is undoubtedly a big hidden danger, the next day the stock price really opened hugely low, the buying once tried to pull back the situation, the accumulation of huge profits to sell it in vain, this battle laid the foundation for the reversal. After a second peak, it finally entered a downtrend.
Another point to remind investors is that the hanging line often appears when the main intraday shock wash. The judging criteria refer to the following two points:
(1) The relative position of the hanging line. If the stock price has a hanging neckline at a relatively high level, there is a high probability of forming a top; Conversely, if the stock price has just exited the mid- to long-term bottom, there is a high probability that it will become a consolidation pattern.
(2) The trading volume of the day when the hanging man line is formed. If the formation of the neckline is accompanied by a huge trading volume, especially when there is a recent volume, investors should be especially wary of the possibility of a one-day reversal of the stock price, and no longer need the next day's verification signal to confirm.
Finally, as investors, we need to know that ignorance, impetuousness, and conceit are probably the three most dangerous weaknesses in investing. But what is more troublesome than these three items is the compound danger, such as ignorance + conceit will escalate to stupidity, ignorance + impetuousness will become a gambler, and the middle of all three is a typical "stupid gambler". It can be seen that continuous learning, guarding against arrogance, self-knowledge and being honest with oneself are necessary prerequisites to avoid becoming a stupid gambler.
The root that drives people to do addition (efficiency optimization) and even multiplication (efficiency optimization of leverage) is actually a greedy and impetuous heart. Of course, there are geniuses in the world, but it is not wise to bet on the small probability that you will be a genius. However, people would rather chase unclear dreams than bother to think about the most essential laws and the most simple methods of investment.
"Afford to lose" seems to be a low profile, but in fact it is not easy to do. Those who can really afford to lose are either young enough or have strong enough resources to reserve. This is often a paradox in investment, the more you can afford to lose, the better your mentality, and the less likely your behavior is to deviate; On the contrary, the more you can't afford to lose, the more you want to bet on the big one to turn over as soon as possible. If you can't jump out of this psychological trap, it will be difficult to truly form an investment consciousness.
The reason why it is difficult for investors to make money is that there are so many opportunities to make money, not the other way around. When you pay more attention to how much money others are making, the harder it is for you to make money, and the more you feel that your stocks are hard to make money, the less profitable your operations will become. Just like there is a kind of pet called "other people's pets", there is always a stock called "other people's stocks", when you see it in your eyes, you will lose it in your heart.
In short, the foundation of any good investment strategy – watch the market carefully, study it deeply, and be objective. The unfortunate trader "acts on emotions rather than discipline, on feelings rather than logic, subjectively rather than objectively."