1. Good morning, brothers and sisters, it's really too strong, and the U.S. stock market has hit a record high again! The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 349.89 points from the previous trading day to close at 39908.00 points, an increase of 0.88%; The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 231.21 points, or 1.40%, to close at 16,742.39; The S&P 500 stock index rose 61.47 points, or 1.17%, to close at 5308.15, what happened and why are U.S. stocks hitting new all-time highs again? What is the impact on A-shares? Dalong immediately analyzes a wave!
2. Why did U.S. stocks hit new all-time highs? There are two main reasons for this:
Reason 1: US CPI data boosts Fed interest rate cut expectations! The U.S. Department of Labor released on Wednesday disclosed the consumer price index for April, in which the nominal CPI was 3.4% y/y, in line with expectations; CPI rose 0.3% m/m, slightly below expectations of 0.4%; The more critical core CPI annual rate further fell to 3.6%, in line with expectations, while falling to the lowest point since April 2021, this news did not rise as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, based on the confidence brought by the CPI data, the swap market's forecast probability of the Fed's first interest rate cut in September also rose above 70%, and the probability of two interest rate cuts before the end of the year was also more than 50%, which drove U.S. stocks to rise.
Reason 2: The collective rise of U.S. technology giants drove the rise of the U.S. stock Nasdaq, and U.S. technology stocks generally rose last night. The semiconductor and computer hardware sectors continued to rise, with ultra-micro computers rising more than 15%, Dell Technologies rising more than 11%, AMD, Broadcom rising more than 4%, Nvidia rising more than 3%, Meta rising more than 2%, Apple, Microsoft, Google rising more than 1%, and the US stock NASDAQ is the representative of technology, as long as these technology stocks continue to rise, US stocks will continue to rise
3. What is the impact of the new high of U.S. stocks on A-shares?
Strictly speaking, the record high of U.S. stocks has no impact on A-shares, because U.S. stocks and A-shares are two different markets, and the rise of U.S. stocks has little impact on A-shares, and there is a time difference between the trading hours of U.S. stocks and A-shares. Although the opening probability of A-shares is affected by the rise and fall of U.S. stocks, the operating trend of individual stocks is mainly affected by the large-cap index.
This means that according to the impact of U.S. stocks on A-shares in the past, when U.S. stocks rise, it will only affect the opening price of A-shares (open higher), and will not affect the trading hours of A-shares. In other words, there is no direct correlation between the rise of A-shares and the rise of U.S. stocks.
Although the impact is not significant, it has to be admitted that it is true in some cases, because the United States is the country with the largest share of global GDP, and the dollar is the global currency. Once the U.S. stock market goes bad, it will directly affect the whole world. From years of observation experience, U.S. stocks have been fluctuating in a relatively fixed range. U.S. stocks will not keep falling like A-shares, but will keep rising. U.S. stocks can be shorted, and long and short forces will compete with each other, while A-shares are different. If they go up, all will make money;
To sum up, the rise in U.S. stocks is only good for A-shares, but last night's rise in U.S. technology stocks across the board will have a positive impact on today's A-share semiconductors, artificial intelligence, games and other technology sectors, and the rest has no impact.
4. Will the U.S. stock market rise in the future?
Dalong previously said that whether the Fed cuts interest rates or not, U.S. stocks will continue to hit record highs, because global funds are still flowing into U.S. stocks, which determines that U.S. stocks will not fall, and the Fed's interest rate cut is a show for the world to see, and it has no impact on the long-term market of U.S. stocks.
In Dalong, the main reason is that the economic growth trend will support the U.S. stock market, and the overall strong earnings data of the seven major U.S. technology giants can continue to bring upward momentum to the U.S. stocks.
1. A strong overview of economic fundamentals: The continued rise in the U.S. stock market is closely related to the strength of the country's economic fundamentals.
- Low Unemployment and High Consumer Confidence: Low unemployment boosts consumer confidence, boosting consumption and economic growth.
- Corporate earnings growth: Earnings growth for U.S.-listed companies is a direct driver of stock market gains.
2. Overview of accommodative monetary policy: The monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve System (Fed) has a significant impact on the stock market.
- Low interest rate environment: Low interest rates reduce the financing costs of businesses and individuals, stimulating investment and consumption.
- Quantitative easing: The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing has increased liquidity and pushed up asset prices.
3. Overview of the leading role of technology stocks: The technology sector occupies an important position in the U.S. stock market, and its performance has a significant impact on market sentiment.
- Strong performance of tech giants: Rising share prices of tech giants such as Apple and Amazon have had a significant impact on stock market indices.
- Innovation-driven investment boom: Technological innovations are emerging, attracting a lot of investment and driving up the stock prices of related companies.
4. Overview of global capital inflows: As the world's largest capital market, the United States has attracted a large amount of international capital.
- The U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency: The U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency makes the U.S. stock market an important choice for international investors.
- Stability and maturity of U.S. equities: The stability and maturity of U.S. equities attract safe-haven funds compared to emerging markets.
In a word, Dalong is optimistic that U.S. stocks will continue to rise to a record high, and Dalong will continue to increase its position in U.S. stocks, which is not a big problem!
Commonly used indices ($SSE Index$ChiNext Index$NASDAQ$Dow Jones$S&P 500$CSI 300$)
Daily Posting Time:
Morning review: 8 a.m. - 9 p.m
Afternoon review: before 12 o'clock
Fund operation: before 14:10
Re-entry: Before 20:10