According to data released on Wednesday, May 15 local time, the CPI and core CPI in the United States increased by 3.4% and 3.6% year-on-year respectively in April, both slowing down from March. As one of the most critical data to influence US stocks, the US CPI data for April may bring some hope that inflation will resume its downward trend, rekindling the market's enthusiasm for the Fed to cut interest rates.
European and American stock markets collectively closed higher, the three major U.S. stock indexes hit record highs, technology and chip stocks performed well, and Nvidia rose more than 3%, rising for four consecutive days and hitting a new high since March 26 this year. In the past two days, the soaring retail stocks have generally cooled down, and the game station once dived by more than 35%.
The U.S. dollar index once hit a new low in nearly five weeks, and the offshore yuan once rose more than 300 points, hitting a new high in more than a week; International gold futures rose more than 1%, hitting a new high in more than three weeks, and crude oil prices showed a V-shaped reversal.
The US April CPI data rekindled the Fed's interest rate cut expectations
According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year in April, with an expected increase of 3.4%, a decrease from the previous value of 3.5%; The US CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in April, less than the market expectation of 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.4%. The core CPI in the United States increased by 3.6% year-on-year in April, with an expectation of 3.6% and a previous value of 3.8%. Prior to this, the year-on-year increase in US CPI had risen for two consecutive months.
Previously released data showed that the PPI in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in April and accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year, the highest level in a year. In the eyes of industry insiders, the PPI data suggests that the Fed may maintain higher interest rates for longer.
As one of the most critical data to influence US stocks, the US April CPI data rekindled the market's enthusiasm for the Fed to cut interest rates. Zhang Jun, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute of China Galaxy Securities, believes that there is room for further decline in the U.S. inflation data in the second quarter, and the price breakdown and seasonal adjustment of lagging market data may not make inflation continue to "rebound", and the rise in interest rate cut expectations may bring further upward momentum to assets such as long-end U.S. Treasury bonds and gold. That said, the Fed is currently expected to have only about 50 basis points of room to cut rates for the full year in an optimistic scenario, which may be reflected in the dot plot of the June FOMC meeting.
Charles Wawafer analyst Richard Flynn said the latest U.S. CPI data may bring comfort to the U.S. stock market, but these are unlikely to prompt an immediate change in interest rates. Patience is the Fed's core message lately. Fed officials have been fairly unanimous in saying that current interest rates are restrictive enough to control inflation and that the next step will be to cut rates. However, it is also clear that they are in no hurry to act.
Nick Timiraos, a reporter known as the "New Fed News Agency", said that Wednesday's data was not enough to change the Fed's expectations about whether and when to start cutting interest rates, and the Fed may still not act before September, and may need two CPI reports to boost the Fed's confidence.
After the above data, investors increased their bets on a rate cut in September. Intraday swap pricing showed traders expecting the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed rising to more than 80% by September.
The U.S. dollar dived to a new low in nearly five weeks, U.S. Treasury bonds, and gold rose
After the release of the above data, global financial assets fluctuated wildly.
In bonds, U.S. Treasury yields plunged more than 10 basis points intraday.
In terms of exchange rates, the U.S. dollar index closed at 104.31 in the New York session, the lowest intraday low of 104.28, a new low since April 10 (nearly five weeks).
Non-US currencies generally rose, with the euro rising 0.6% to 1.0884 against the dollar, and the yen rising 0.98% to 154.88 against the dollar, up more than 1% at one point during the session. The offshore yuan rose 223 basis points to 7.2178, up more than 300 points during the session, breaking through 7.21 and hitting a new high in more than a week.
In terms of commodities, precious metal futures closed sharply higher, with gold rising more than 1% to a new high in more than three weeks, and silver rising more than 4% intraday. At the close of the New York session, COMEX gold futures rose 1.35% to $2,391.8 an ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.24% to $29.92 an ounce. The spot price of gold in London was at $2,385.87 an ounce, up 1.19%.
In terms of crude oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year for the second consecutive month, which once put pressure on oil prices to fall by more than 1%, but then there was a V-shaped reversal. At the close of the New York session, international oil prices rose across the board, of which the WTI crude oil contract rose 1.09% to $78.87 per barrel. Brent oil rose 0.62% to $82.89 a barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indexes all hit record highs
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and all hit record highs intraday. At the close, the Dow rose 0.88%, the S&P 500 rose 1.17%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%.
Most of the "Seven Sisters" of technology giants rose, among which Nvidia rose the most, up more than 3%, rising for four consecutive days and hitting a new high since March 26 this year; Facebook's parent company Meta rose more than 2%; Apple, Google-A, and Microsoft rose more than 1%, of which Apple's stock price rose for three consecutive days and hit a new high since January 29 this year; Tesla, which had a good start to the week, fell more than 2%; Amazon fell 0.58%.
Chip stocks performed strongly, Chaowei Semiconductor and Broadcom rose more than 4%, Applied Materials rose more than 3%, and ASML and TSMC rose more than 2%.
Popular Chinese concept stocks diverged, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) rising 0.03%. Canaan Technology rose more than 11%, iQiyi rose more than 6%, Tencent Music and Dada Group rose more than 4%, and VNET, Legend Biotech, and Shengmei Semiconductor rose more than 3%; In terms of declines, Oceanpower Securities fell by more than 20%, Dajian Yuncang and Zhihu fell by more than 5%, and Good Future, Zai Lab and Canadian Solar fell by more than 3%. China's new energy vehicle stocks fell across the board, with NIO falling more than 8%, Xpeng Motors falling more than 3%, and Li Auto falling more than 1%.
In terms of European stocks, the three major European stock indexes rose across the board. At the close, Germany's DAX rose 0.85%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.17%, and Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.21%.
Retail huddle stocks generally cooled down, and the game station once fell more than 35%
In the past two days, the soaring retail stocks have generally cooled down, and many stocks such as Game Station and AMC have fallen by double digits in intraday.
Retail stocks that rose sharply in the first two trading days of this week generally retreated. Among them, Game Station (GME) fell more than 17% at the opening of Wednesday after rising more than 60% on Tuesday, and once the decline extended to more than 35%, closing down 18.79%.
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC), which closed up nearly 32% on Tuesday, fell more than 31% at one point in intraday trading on Wednesday before closing down 20%.
此外,SunPower(SPWR)跌超29%,Koss(KOSS)跌超19%,黑莓(BB)跌超7%。
受益于散户抱团股大涨的美股贴吧所在论坛Reddit（RDDT）跌超4%，券商Robinhood（HOOD）早盘跌超2%后转涨，最终涨超2%。
Warren Buffett reduced his holdings in Apple and increased his holdings in Occidental Petroleum in the first quarter
According to the 13F U.S. stock position documents submitted by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire increased its holdings of Occidental Petroleum by 4.3 million shares in the first quarter, liquidated HP, and reduced its holdings of Apple by 116 million shares, reducing its holdings to 40%, but it is still the number one heavy stock. Buy 25.92 million shares to open a position in Chubb Insurance.
At the end of the first quarter, Berkshire's total market value was $332 billion, and the market value of its Apple stock holdings was $135.4 billion (previously announced by the shareholders' meeting).
(All pictures in the article are from Wind)
Reviewer: Xu Zhao Editor: Zhang Nan Wang Yin Proofreader: Zhang Diange Issued: Sun Hong