SMM May 15:
In terms of the metal market:
As of the close of trading at noon, the domestic base metals rose. Shanghai tin rose 2.51%. Shanghai lead rose 2.32%, and Shanghai copper fell slightly. Shanghai zinc rose 0.63%, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.15%. Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.44%. The main alumina futures fell 1.72%. In addition, the main industrial silicon contract fell 0.76%. The main lithium carbonate futures contract fell 3.25%.
The black series are all green, iron ore fell 1.84%, thread, hot coil, and stainless steel all fell, and the increase was within 1%. In terms of double coke, coking coal fell 1.42% and coke fell 1.58%.
In terms of external metals, as of 11:41, LME metals rose across the board. London tin rose 1.45%, and London copper rose 0.74%. London nickel, London zinc, London aluminum and London lead all rose within 1%.
In terms of precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.19%; COMEX silver rose 0.41%. In terms of domestic precious metals, as of the close at noon, Shanghai gold rose 0.4%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.42%.
In addition, as of noon, the main futures of European line container shipping closed at 3779.7 points, down 3.5%.
As of 11:41 on May 15, some futures at noon:
>> SMM metal spot price on May 15
Spot & Fundamentals
Copper: Today, Guangdong 1# electrolytic copper spot price premium for the current month contract is 0 yuan/ton-50 yuan/ton, and the average premium is 25 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Wet copper reported a discount of 80-40 yuan/ton, and the average price discount was 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of 1# electrolytic copper in Guangdong was 81,155 yuan/ton, down 465 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of wet copper was 81,070 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong's inventory fell slightly today, and the decrease in arrivals was the main reason. Under the background of a large monthly difference in the delivery date (340 yuan), the downstream purchasing desire is very low......》Click to view details
Macroscopic
Domestic:
["No interest rate cut"! On May 15, the central bank announced that the central bank carried out 125 billion yuan of one-year MLF today, with an interest rate of 2.5%. $125 billion of 1-year MLF is due today. On April 15, the central bank announced that the central bank carried out 2 billion yuan of open market reverse repurchase operations and 100 billion yuan of MLF operations today, and the winning interest rates were 1.80% and 2.50% respectively, which were consistent with before. >> Click here for details
On May 15, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1049 yuan per US dollar per dollar
On the US dollar:
The U.S. dollar index continued to decline in the previous two trading days, and as of 11:41, the U.S. dollar index was at 104.94, down 0.08%. Key inflation data from the U.S. later in the week could provide clues on the Fed's interest rate path. The focus of the market will be on the US consumer price index (CPI) data for April to be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. Economists expect the US core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month in April, down from a 0.4% increase in March, and a 3.6% year-on-year increase compared to 3.8% in March. U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in April due to strong growth in the cost of services and goods, suggesting that inflation remained elevated at the start of the second quarter. The U.S. Labor Department reported on Tuesday that the final demand producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% in April, after being revised downwards to a 0.1% decline in March. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday gave an optimistic assessment of the current state of the U.S. economy, which is expected to continue to grow at an above-trend pace, and confidence in the pullback in inflation remains largely unchanged, albeit due to a decline in recent data.
In terms of other currencies:
Bank of America: Japan's next intervention in the currency market is likely to use its holdings of U.S. Treasuries Bank of America believes that any future foreign exchange intervention by Japan to support the yen could involve the use of its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. After the yen hit its lowest level against the dollar in decades, the Japanese authorities may have stepped in twice in recent weeks to boost the yen, for which they may have used their cash reserves. Bank of America strategists Shusuke Yamada, Izumi Devalier, Mark Cabana and Meghan Swiber and others wrote in a note on Tuesday that the next move to boost the yen is likely to require the Ministry of Finance to use its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, a move that will have an impact on U.S. financing and bond markets, Bank of America strategists Shusuke Yamada, Izumi Devalier, Mark Cabana and Meghan Swiber, among others. Bank of America said that reduced demand for U.S. Treasuries could drive a modest rise in interest rates and tighten spreads on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the reference rate linked to overnight repo agreements. Strategists say the impact is most likely to be felt at the short end of the Treasury yield curve, as most of the Treasury holdings held by the Japanese Ministry of Finance are likely to be of this maturity. "Further intervention, particularly by reducing Treasury holdings, should have a modest impact, especially if the net supply of Treasury bills was negative as of June," BofA wrote. (Huitong Finance)
In terms of data:
Today, the French CPI monthly rate for April, the revised annual rate of GDP in the first quarter of the euro area, the quarterly adjusted employment rate in the euro area for the first quarter, the monthly rate of industrial production in the euro area in March, the annual rate of non-seasonally adjusted CPI in the United States in April, the monthly rate of seasonally adjusted CPI in the United States in April, the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in April, the NAHB housing market index in the United States in May, and the monthly rate of business inventories in the United States in March.
Crude oil: Crude oil futures rose, as of 11:41, U.S. oil rose 0.78%, and cloth oil rose 0.87%. Oil prices were supported by wildfires threatening Canada's oil sands and expectations of a decline in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories. Canadian wildfires are closing in on Fort McMurray, the heart of the oil sands industry that produces about 3.3 million barrels per day, or two-thirds of the country's total, and thousands of people in the suburbs have been asked to evacuate.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week, while distillate inventories rose. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.104 million barrels in the week ended May 10, API data showed. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.269 million barrels and distillate inventories increased by 673,000 barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the official inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. Analysts expect crude oil inventories to fall by about 500,000 barrels, distillate inventories to rise by 800,000 barrels and gasoline inventories to rise by about 500,000 barrels, the survey showed.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported on Tuesday that it maintained its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and said it would shift its focus to demand expectations for OPEC crude oil, reflecting OPEC's solidarity. OPEC said in its monthly report that global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.25 million b/d in 2024 and 1.85 million b/d in 2025, both unchanged from the previous month's estimate. This is the last monthly report of OPEC and its allies (i.e., OPEC) before meeting on June 1 to decide whether to extend the resource production cut policy until the second half of the year. OPEC is optimistic about the economic outlook.
Spot market at a glance:
►The market seeks the source of warehouse receipts, and the premium of Yangshan copper increases slightly [SMM Yangshan copper spot]
►On the delivery day, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the spot premium of the next month contract is lower [SMM South China Copper Spot]
►Why is it difficult for China's total copper imports to be high so far in 2024? [SMM Analysis]
►In 2024, Q1 electrolytic copper imports will increase by more than 20% year-on-year. [SMM Analysis]
►Aluminum rod factory is struggling! In April, the amount of domestic aluminum water rods has been reduced [SMM analysis]
►The main Shanghai aluminum contract fluctuates upward, and the spot short-term or still maintains the discount market after the month change [SMM aluminum spot afternoon review]
►SMM Shanghai and other 1# lead markets: Shanghai lead brushed a new 6-year high, and the transaction in the spot market is quite different [SMM Afternoon Review]
►Recycled lead: The quotation of refined lead bulk orders is firm, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to take goods declines [SMM Lead Afternoon Review]
►Shanghai Zinc: Zinc prices are rising again, and spot transactions are weak [SMM Afternoon Review]
►The price of Shanghai tin rose sharply at the end of the day, and the spot market is still cold [SMM Tin Afternoon Review]
►The cost drive is still strong, and the price of nickel salt continues to rise【SMM Nickel Sulfate Daily Review】