According to the Global Times, about 200 Filipino fishermen sailed from the Philippines to the waters off Scarborough Shoal on May 15 on five commercial fishing boats. Organizers say the purpose of the voyage is to secure their rights and interests in the disputed waterway. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin pointed out on May 15 that Huangyan Dao is Chinese territory and China's sovereignty over the island and surrounding waters is indisputable. In 2016, China made goodwill arrangements for a small number of Philippine fishing vessels to fish in the waters off Scarborough Shoal, and at the same time managed and supervised them. If the Philippine side abuses China's goodwill and infringes on China's sovereignty and jurisdiction, China will take countermeasures in accordance with the law, and the Philippine side will bear all responsibilities and consequences.
When examining the dispute between China and the Philippines, we should see several types of ways in which territorial disputes between countries are handled. First, countries should negotiate with each other and establish their territorial boundaries in a peaceful manner. This method is not valid in most cases, and its premise is that in Chinese military terminology, "a soldier who surrenders without a fight", it needs to be established in a situation where the military strength of the two sides is large and the other side does not have a basic chance of victory. China's ongoing military buildup in the South China Sea along with economic growth has supported China's peaceful approach to maritime demarcation.
It is reflected in the relatively relaxed border relations between China and Vietnam and China and Malaysia, as well as in the China-Philippines relations from 2016 to 2022. The involvement of the United States as an extraterritorial force is the main factor in the rapid decline of Sino-Philippine relations. The pro-US forces in the Philippines are bent on seeking to invade the area of China's actual control in various ways, which is a manifestation of the United States' intensified proxy war in the direction of China under geopolitical pressure.
We need to be vigilant against the U.S. Ukrainization of the Philippines, triggering a conflict in the South China Sea that consumes U.S. proxy power and serves U.S. interests. Second, the use of force in war and conflict based on military projection of borders and the establishment of territorial boundaries. The continuation of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict represents the collapse of the old international system. In this process, it is not the living space of large countries that is squeezed, but the basis for the existence of small countries. If regional chain wars are detonated, resulting in a lack of restrictions on the power projection of foreign powers, the global distribution of countries will be reshaped, and many old countries will die out and new countries will be created. From this perspective, it is dangerous for the pro-US forces in the Philippines to coerce the Philippine people and carry out provocations against China under the control of the United States.
If the situation evolves to the war stage, triggering the transformation of China's existing industrial capacity into military production capacity, the relevant military increase is enough to reconstruct the Asia-Pacific geopolitical structure, including the Philippine Islands, in a hard way. The current approach of the Philippine side is pushing the situation in this direction. The pro-US forces in the Philippines should be vigilant about whether they are bringing about their own demise. Third, the boundary line should be established through international mediation on the basis of the consensus of major countries. There is no basis for such an approach, and as the rift between China and the United States widens, there are increasingly signs of faction rivalry over how to deal with the South China Sea.
At the moment, China is increasing its de facto control over the waters off Scarborough Shoal. CCTV News released three pieces of information related to Scarborough Shoal on May 13. First, the China Coast Guard conducts regular life-saving training at sea in the waters off Scarborough Shoal. Strengthen China's regional law enforcement through regular work. Second, the aerial image of Scarborough Shoal was released for the first time to strengthen the awareness of the sovereignty of Scarborough Shoal from the level of information and publicity, and pave the way for public opinion to implement necessary actions in the region. Third, release the details of the life-saving training of the Coast Guard Chuanshan ship. The ship is subordinate to the Third Bureau directly under the China Coast Guard.
Due to the weakness of the Philippines' own economic level, the Sino-Philippine war is facing the problem of more gains than losses for China. China's strategy is mainly defensive and countermeasures, and China's main tool for the politically fragmented Philippines is to support friendly forces in the Philippines towards China. If the situation must evolve in the direction of war, the battlefield should be decided by the Chinese side.