Spot gold rose slightly overnight, hitting an intraday high of $2,359.66 and a low of $2,334.69 before finally closing at $2,357.82. In today's European market, gold rose sharply, breaking through $2,370 and is currently hovering around $2,369.
The "king of retail investors" in U.S. stocks returns!
Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes still closed up collectively, and the Nasdaq closed at a record high. At the close, the Dow rose 126.60 points, or 0.32%, to 39,558.11, the Nasdaq added 122.94 points, or 0.75%, to 16,511.18, and the S&P 500 added 25.26 points, or 0.48%, to 5,246.68.
On the 14th local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. PPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month in April, exceeding market consensus expectations of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month, higher than market expectations of 0.2% and 2.4% year-on-year.
After the release of the data, the CME Fed Watch Tool showed that the market basically assumed that the Fed would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at the June monetary policy meeting between 5.25% and 5.5%, and expected the probability of the first rate cut in September to fall from 64% to 60%.
In response, Powell said that although the latest April PPI rose more than expected, he preferred to describe the overall report as "mixed" rather than "hot", as the March data was revised downward.
Moreover, Powell also reiterated for the second time that "the Fed is still unlikely to raise interest rates further." Although I said it once earlier this month, it was said yesterday with a different meaning. With the upcoming release of the US CPI for March, it is not surprising that there is speculation of a rate hike once the data is significantly higher than expected. Powell dared to promise "no interest rate hike" at this time, and he must have known something.
Therefore, the blockbuster data that Wall Street is more focused on will be released tonight, and economists expect the consumer price index to rise by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in April.
Morgan Stanley directly shouted the slogan of "cooling down" in its latest report, and even expected the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, the first in September, followed by two more in November and December.
For the U.S. stock market, analysts said that the S&P 500 may be on the verge of a sharp decline, as inflation will not cool further on the current basis. According to analysts, the S&P 500 index will fall to 4,750 points in the second or third quarter of this year. That means the S&P 500 will fall around 10% from Monday's current level of 5,246.68.
Regarding the U.S. stock market, it is also worth mentioning that the two major "retail stocks" continue to soar.
The game station once soared by nearly 113%, rising by more than 100% intraday for the second consecutive day, closing up 60.10%, and rising by more than 179% in two days; AMC Cinemas rose nearly 130% intraday and closed up 31.98%.
Actually, it's not a junk stock, it's a game station (GME) that shocked the world three years ago, an American stock that gave birth to a stock market legend.
I remember a statistic at that time, the proportion of game stations that were once sold out reached an incredible 140%. That is, the stock has been repeatedly shorted, and hedge funds are hoping to make a big IQ tax.
At that moment, the "leading brother", "Roaring Kitty", suddenly came back.
And Americans hate Wall Street's greed and complain about social injustice. As a result, the "leading brother" raised his arms, and even if the fundamentals did not change, Wall Street was trembling with fear.
We are witnessing history, and the best is yet to come.
Don't forget, how did the game station turmoil end three years ago. Hedge funds lost a lot of money, but at the instigation of Wall Street, some trading platforms suddenly banned retail investors from buying into the game station, and some platforms even more ruthlessly, directly clearing the stock symbol.
After all, retail investors are retail investors, and the game station has begun a long decline, and many retail investors have reaped tears.
Now, the "leading big brother" is back, but can he beat Wall Street?
Some analysts believe that this speculative market is unlikely to last long, and the situation is different from 2021, for example, interest rates have already risen significantly.
Speaking of perfect stocks, let's take a look at how our A-shares are performing today.
Today, the A-share market fluctuated lower throughout the day, with the three major indexes all falling nearly 1%. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.9%.
Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 3,800 stocks in the whole market fell. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 761.1 billion, a decrease of 63.5 billion from the previous trading day.
In terms of sectors, real estate, ST plates, phosphorus chemicals, precious metals and other sectors were among the top gainers, while securities, power, Sora concept, CRO and other sectors were among the top decliners.
As for the strength of real estate, it is mainly affected by two circulating news.
First of all, there is news in the market that the relevant authorities are considering a plan to let local governments across the country buy the stock of housing that has not yet been sold.
It should be noted that there have been several versions of this scheme, but none of them have been officially confirmed.
Secondly, there is also news circulating today about the direction of interest rates, and if the ECB cuts rates as scheduled, the People's Bank of China may cut interest rates in June.
Because, after the ECB, the interest rate cut may reduce the impact on the RMB exchange rate. Today, MLF maintains stable volume and price, but if interest rates are cut subsequently, it will inevitably be good for the real estate market.
Because it has not yet been confirmed, the boost of these news to the market should obviously not be overestimated. However, the near-term trend of the real estate sector is indeed relatively healthy, so we can analyze it along the logic mentioned in the news.
In addition to this, investors need to pay attention to the news on the international situation.
The Israeli army issued a new "evacuation order"!
On the evening of the 14th local time, the spokesman of the Israel Defense Forces issued a new "evacuation order" for many areas west of Jebaliyah in the northern Gaza Strip, requiring local people to evacuate to the west of Gaza City.
Jintou.com: 5.15 gold trend analysis
From a technical point of view, the daily level continues to rise, but the overall structure is not the most stable, if the next wave of rising market at the weekly level is opened, then the daily level should not be stable and unstable, just rush upward.
Image source: Jintou.com APP
However, there are certain doubts about whether the weekly level will continue to rise, so the CPI data in the evening is more important, and it is more important for the weekly level to rise and fall.
Mapping to the daily level, the market here is again winding at the high level, focusing on whether the weekly level can diverge from the daily level if it falls back to the top.
There is a certain amount of technical pressure on the upper and lower areas of 2380, but with the blessing of data, the market does not rule out the possibility of rushing higher or even hitting new highs, so it is mainly not traded from the transaction.