Constructing a Regional Strategic Emerging Industry Screening System for Major Science and Technology Infrastructure: Structural Framework and Practical Considerations
In March 2021, General Secretary Xi Jinping's signed article published by Qiushi pointed out: "Since the beginning of the 21st century, global scientific and technological innovation has entered an unprecedented period of intensive activity, and a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is reshaping the global innovation map and reshaping the global economic structure." The "Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035" further clarifies that it is necessary to "develop and expand strategic emerging industries". As an important support and carrier of the mainland's strategic scientific and technological forces, major scientific and technological infrastructure will become an important material and technical foundation for a new round of industrial transformation and scientific and technological revolution, and will be of great strategic significance for the comprehensive implementation of the country's strategic emerging industries and the realization of scientific and technological industrial transformation. How to maximize the industrial agglomeration effect of major scientific and technological infrastructure, so as to build a regional industrial cluster with innovation driving force? How to fully release the socio-economic benefits of major scientific and technological infrastructure to promote the high-quality development of the regional economy? How to comprehensively consider the various factors under the new situation and screen out the regional strategic emerging industries for major scientific and technological infrastructure? To answer the relevant questions, it is urgent to establish a reasonable theoretical system for industrial screening.
The new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation urgently requires the construction of an industrial screening system for major scientific and technological infrastructure
The Concept and Evolution of Strategic Emerging Industries
Based on major technological breakthroughs and the rise of demand, strategic emerging industries have the characteristics of intensive knowledge and technology, low resource consumption, huge potential and significant comprehensive benefits, and play an important leading role in economic and social development. In 2010, the State Council promulgated the Decision on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, it is determined to plan and develop seven strategic emerging industries: new generation information technology, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, new materials, new energy vehicles, energy conservation and environmental protection. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, we will further expand the connotation of strategic emerging industries and add digital creative industries to the seven basic industries. The "14th Five-Year Plan" points out that "focusing on seizing the opportunities for future industrial development, cultivating leading and pillar industries, and promoting the integration, clustering and ecological development of strategic emerging industries", which puts forward new and higher requirements for the development of strategic emerging industries.
Strategic emerging industries are an important engine for the high-quality development of the regional economy
Strategic emerging industries are the new direction of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and the key to cultivating new regional momentum and creating new advantages in the future. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the rapid development of strategic emerging industries, the rapid change in scale, and the steady breakthrough of key technologies have become the key to the formation of new regional productivity. For example, in 2023, the added value of Shenzhen's strategic emerging industries will reach 1.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%, accounting for 41.9% of the gross domestic product (GDP), exceeding the growth rate of 6.2% of the added value of industries above designated size, and has become an important engine of Shenzhen's economic development. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the development of strategic emerging industries needs to face cutting-edge technologies and emerging fields, seize the new opportunities of a new round of industrial transformation and scientific and technological revolution, focus on the new direction in the process of global industrial structure and layout adjustment, and have the courage to open up new industrial fields, tap new momentum for development, and find new tracks for success.
There are still bottlenecks in the development of strategic emerging industries
The mainland's strategic emerging industries are at an important juncture of seizing the commanding heights and leaping upward, facing the following four bottlenecks. The original innovation ability of the industry is insufficient. At present, the overall level of basic research investment in the mainland is still low compared with that of developed countries, the basic research capacity is still an obvious shortcoming, and the "bottleneck" problem of original innovation capability needs to be solved urgently, and it is necessary to achieve a breakthrough from "0 to 1". There is a structural shortage of high-level technical talents. Strategic emerging industries are knowledge- and technology-intensive, involving many cutting-edge advanced technologies, but in terms of talent introduction, a global talent absorption system has not yet been formed, and the talent cultivation system has failed to match the development of the industry. The industry cultivation cycle is long, and the capital investment and market risk are large. Strategic emerging industry projects often have strong uncertainty and a long return period for capital investment, and it is difficult to meet the industry's inflated demand for capital by relying solely on the government or a few leading enterprises. The foundation for the coordinated development of the industrial chain is weak. Leading enterprises have failed to effectively lead upstream and downstream enterprises, and have not formed a complementary cluster development model, while small and medium-sized enterprises are small in scale and lack competitiveness.
Major scientific and technological infrastructure is an important support for key technological breakthroughs
The new quality productivity is the productivity based on scientific and technological innovation, and the major scientific and technological infrastructure is the leading and supporting of scientific and technological innovation. In December 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that "it is necessary to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to promote new industries, new models and new kinetic energy with disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and develop new quality productivity". As an important support for revolutionary breakthroughs in the frontier of science, major scientific and technological infrastructure can effectively strengthen basic research, attract high-level talents at home and abroad, gather and lead the common development of emerging industries, and play an important supporting role in the breakthrough of key technologies in strategic emerging industries. For example, Dongguan's "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on the development of the biomedical industry, giving full play to the agglomeration role of spallation neutron sources in the biomedical industry. In 2022, the Songshan Lake Biomedical Industry Base will gather more than 80% of the city's bio-industry innovation resources, with more than 500 registered biopharmaceutical enterprises, including 21 large-scale ones, with a total output value of nearly 24 billion yuan, and has become an important nuclear medicine R&D center and biomedical R&D and manufacturing base.
Developed countries are actively deploying major scientific and technological infrastructure
Scientific and technological innovation has become a key track to enhance the core competitiveness of the country, and countries around the world are competing to chase it in order to gain an advantage in global competition. Since the middle of the 20th century, developed countries such as the United States, Britain, Germany, and Japan have vied to lay out cutting-edge basic disciplines, strengthen the construction of major scientific and technological infrastructure, and vigorously develop emerging industries to seize the commanding heights of future scientific and technological development. For example, after the 2008 financial crisis, the United Kingdom has gradually formed three major industrial clusters of health, energy and aviation, relying on major platform-based scientific and technological infrastructure such as synchrotron radiation light sources, spallation neutron sources and large-scale laser installations, bringing a large number of jobs to the United Kingdom. Relying on major scientific and technological infrastructure, Germany's research direction is no longer limited to traditional disciplines such as astronomy and physics, and has begun to shift to cutting-edge technologies such as next-generation trains and automobiles that can drive industrial upgrading. The layout of Japan's major scientific and technological infrastructure provides important support for technologies in the fields of network digital, low-carbon energy, and disaster prevention and epidemic prevention needed in the "Society 5.0" era.
Construction of industrial screening system
At present, most of the research on industrial screening mainly focuses on the scientific value, development strategy and management mechanism of major scientific and technological infrastructure, and gives corresponding industrial development suggestions according to the scientific value of facilities and internal management mode. The screening of major scientific and technological infrastructure industries is different from the traditional regional industry screening, especially in the case that the research scope, main disciplines, geographical location, investment level and scale of facilities are different from each facility, only by fully considering the technical advantages and agglomeration effect of the facilities themselves, combined with various factors such as the economic scale, growth rate, resource conditions, and market demand of regional industries, can we select suitable strategic emerging industries to help local industrial transformation, so as to promote the development of relevant industries in the region and even the country.
Based on the seven strategic emerging industries identified in the 12th Five-Year Plan, including the new generation of information technology, and the Classification of Strategic Emerging Industries (2018) standard formulated by the National Bureau of Statistics, this study is based on the Michael Porter Diamond Model, and fully combines the characteristics of major scientific and technological infrastructures to construct a screening system for strategic emerging industries, so as to provide reference for local governments to develop strategic emerging industries.
Construction of a screening model for strategic emerging industries based on Porter's diamond model
The goal of the screening of major scientific and technological infrastructure industries is to give full play to the social and economic benefits of facilities and promote the development of related industries in the region. However, the classical theories of industrial screening, which originated in the mid-20th century and have their own backgrounds, assumptions and specific application scopes, are not fully applicable to the current situation of unbalanced economic and industrial development in various regions of the mainland and the industrial screening system with major scientific and technological infrastructure as the core. At the same time, the screening goals and objects of classical theory are also different. For example, Porter's diamond model, also known as the diamond theory and the theory of national competitive advantage, was proposed by Michael Porter, a well-known strategic management scientist at Harvard Business School in the United States, in the book "National Competitive Advantage" in 1990, and is mainly used to analyze why a certain industry in a country has strong competitiveness in the world. The model includes four factors that have a two-way effect on factors of production, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, corporate strategic structure, and peer competition, and two variables related to government and opportunity. The model is mainly used to study the dynamic factor system of the competitiveness of specific industries or enterprises in the field of international trade and economy, and its analytical elements lack universality when studying other fields.
Therefore, this study synthesizes the current major industry screening theories, considers the particularity and support of major scientific and technological infrastructures, modifies the Porter diamond model, and establishes a diamond model suitable for the screening of strategic emerging industries in facilities (Fig. 1). The model has three characteristics: emphasizing technical support capabilities. Take technical resources out of the factors of production as a separate dimension. An important premise for the development of strategic emerging industries relying on facilities is that the facilities have the technical support capacity to provide a material basis for the core technology breakthroughs of related industries, and then spread to the industry to promote the technological development of the entire region. Weaken enterprise competition. Put enterprise competition into the index of industrial competitiveness. The original diamond model mainly studied national competitiveness, so the competition between large enterprises cannot be ignored, but this study focuses on the promotion of facilities to regional industries, and mainly considers whether leading enterprises can achieve technological breakthroughs through facilities to promote regional industrial development. Highlight the role of government intervention. Most of the related industries that can be supported by the facilities are strategic emerging industries or high-tech industries, and industries that are in line with the government's strategic planning are selected to promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain.
Screening index system for strategic emerging industries
The diamond screening model for strategic emerging industries of major scientific and technological infrastructure proposed in this study includes 6 screening dimensions and 11 corresponding first-level indicators of regional resource endowment, industrial upgrading potential, technical support capacity, social demand conditions, government intervention and other related opportunities.
Regional resource endowment. According to Heckscher's and Ohlin's factor endowment theories, as well as the production factor conditions in Porter's diamond model, the strategic emerging industries that focus on regional development should have good regional resource endowments and can effectively support the development of related industries and industrial clusters. Porter pointed out that the key to building a lasting competitive advantage is to have the mechanisms to create the factors of production, not just the factors themselves. For a region to build a strong and lasting industrial competitive advantage, it must develop high-level and specialized factors of production, including primary factors such as natural resources, human resources and infrastructure, and advanced factors such as knowledge and capital resources.
Potential for industrial upgrading. The success of a region depends not only on the prosperity of a single industry, but also on the diversity of industrial clusters. Therefore, when choosing an industry, we should not only rely on the existing pillar industries, but also focus on the development of potential emerging industries. Based on Hirschman's industrial relevance benchmark and the industrial elements of Porter's diamond model, this study evaluates the upgrading potential of the industry from two aspects: industrial growth ability and industrial competitiveness. The industrial growth capacity can be evaluated from basic indicators such as industrial scale, industrial added value, project investment, cost and expense ratio, and total asset contribution rate, or the degree of connection and diffusion effect between industries can be evaluated by using the influence coefficient and sensitivity coefficient in the input-output analysis. The content of the comparison of industrial competitiveness is the competitive advantage of the industry, which is reflected in the market realization ability of products, enterprises and industries. The stronger the industrial competitiveness, the more stable and far-reaching the strategic emerging industries that can be supported by the facilities, and cultivate local characteristic industrial clusters to achieve lasting competitive advantages and realize the organic combination of economic and social benefits.
Technical support capabilities. Major scientific and technological infrastructure is a technology-intensive research facility, and the strategic emerging industries that can be supported by facilities are often inseparable from the ability of facilities to support corresponding technologies. This study evaluates the technical support capacity of facilities through two aspects: relevant technology maturity and facility dependence. Technology maturity is an important criterion for the development and application of technology, which can be evaluated and measured by inviting experts in the technical field based on the Technology Maturity Model (TRL) developed by NASA. It is difficult to accurately assess the technical feasibility, market prospects, economic value and investment needs of scientific and technological achievements that are not yet mature, which will hinder the transformation and industrialization of scientific and technological achievements. Scientific and technological achievements with high technological maturity represent the benchmark practice that has been successfully applied to domestic and foreign industries, and the relevant technologies have broken through, and once industrialized, they can quickly drive the development of local industries. Facility dependence refers to the dependence of the industry-related technological breakthroughs on the major scientific and technological infrastructure, and the higher the general dependence, the higher the capacity of the facility agglomeration industry, the more it can attract characteristic related industries to develop in the region. Facility dependence can also reflect the importance of facilities to the industry and the industrial agglomeration capacity of facilities.
Social demand conditions. According to the demand income elasticity benchmark of Shinohara Sandaipei and the demand conditions in the Porter diamond model, the social demand condition dimension includes two indicators: ecological environmental protection and market demand. The ecological environment and its protection are the basic issues related to human survival and social development, and they are the fundamental needs of the people in the current era of rapid development of productive forces. It can be measured by indicators such as industrial energy consumption, output value per unit of energy consumption, and waste emissions, and at the same time, it is also necessary to consider the sustainable development of the industry, as well as the environmental protection of the process of technology research and development and transformation. Market demand refers to the demand for products or services in a specific industry in the domestic market. The global competition has made the global scientific and technological innovation unprecedentedly intensive and active, innovative technologies and products are constantly emerging, and consumers' consumption intentions and needs are also changing, and they have begun to pursue high standards of product quality and service, which has stimulated the continuous innovation of the industry.
The extent of government intervention. Governments can indirectly influence other elements through strategic planning and interventions, including laws, policies, investments, taxes, and more. Only under the guarantee of stable and flexible top-level design can the government become an authoritative force to effectively promote the development of strategic emerging industries, so that it can win a favorable flow of resources and a reasonable amount of resource allocation in the market operation mechanism. The intensity of government intervention can be comprehensively assessed by analyzing the government's strategic planning, such as whether the industry has been selected in the local "14th Five-Year Plan", the key areas of the government's planning, the amount of planned investment, the number of new projects, and tax reduction and exemption policies.
Other related opportunities. It mainly refers to opportunities that have a significant impact on the industry, including major technological breakthroughs, financial or energy crises, foreign political decisions, wars, natural disasters and other emergencies. For example, the development of the biomedical industry driven by the new crown epidemic, the world energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the technological blockade of the United States have restricted the development of certain industries in the mainland. These opportunities have led to industrial discontinuity, and the rapid emergence of certain products or technologies has had a huge impact on the industry, and may even reshape the industrial structure. However, if there is an event that triggers an opportunity, it is critical that the industry can use the opportunity to form and enhance its competitive advantage.
Empirical Study: A Case Study of a High-Efficiency and Low-Carbon Gas Turbine Test Facility
The high-efficiency and low-carbon gas turbine test device is a major scientific and technological infrastructure in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", which aims to provide the basic conditions for tackling major scientific and technological problems of gas turbines and fill the gap of high-power gas turbine test equipment in the country for a long time. The construction and operation of the plant provides a world-leading test platform for many fields, including efficient utilization of natural gas, clean utilization of coal, renewable energy, fourth-generation nuclear energy, energy storage, energy conservation and other fields, which will help promote the development of strategic emerging industries, enhance the original innovation ability of the region, enhance the independence of related industries, and achieve high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance.
In this study, the research team collected a large amount of data by participating in industry and academic conferences, interviewing relevant persons in charge of leading enterprises, universities and scientific research institutions, and consulting a large number of academic literature, policy documents and industry reports. At the same time, the relevant persons in charge and experts of the Institute of Engineering Thermophysics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the participating unit Jiangsu Zhongke Energy and Power Research Center were invited to jointly determine the main strategic emerging industries that the device can support, the calculation methods and scales of industrial screening and evaluation indicators, and the maturity of related technologies of gas turbines in mainland China through seminars. Finally, this part is compiled by synthesizing the above data and evaluation results.
Determine the initial screening object
According to the "Classification of Strategic Emerging Industries (2018)" standard formulated by the National Bureau of Statistics, literature and interview data related to gas turbines, as shown in Figure 2, the facilities can mainly support six strategic emerging industries, 23 secondary industries and 71 tertiary industries of new materials, new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, high-end equipment manufacturing, new generation information technology, and high-tech services (related services). Regardless of the engineering technology and construction industry in the process of facility construction, from the perspective of long-term operation, the main products and services that can be supported by the facility include advanced materials, gas turbine parts, gas turbine components, gas turbine related systems, science and engineering corresponding technology, information, finance, legal services, etc. As the gas turbine industry chain involves a wide range of parts, tens of thousands of parts and components, and thousands of cutting-edge technologies, as shown in Table 1, this study preliminarily screened and summarized 14 related secondary industries and key products and services that can be strongly supported by facilities as the preliminary screening objects.
Screening results and policy recommendations
In this study, quantitative evaluation and qualitative to quantitative evaluation were adopted to comprehensively evaluate the strategic emerging industries in Lianyungang City for the high-efficiency and low-carbon gas turbine test device. Among them, the indicators that can be quantitatively evaluated are assigned corresponding scores according to the relevant data, and the expert scoring method is used to assign the corresponding scores to the qualitative indicators, so as to transform the qualitative indicators into index standards that can be evaluated by scores, and finally the analytic hierarchy process is used to give weights to each index. In this study, a total of 3 questionnaires were issued, including the Survey Form on the Index Weights of the Industrial Screening System in Lianyungang City, the Comprehensive Evaluation Form of Qualitative Indicators of the Main Related Industries of the High-efficiency and Low-carbon Gas Turbine Test Plant, and the Assessment Form of the Technology Maturity of the Main Industries Related to the High-efficiency and Low-carbon Gas Turbine Test Device, and a total of 55 valid questionnaires were collected.
According to the existing data and questionnaire results, the overall evaluation was made from the six screening dimensions of regional resource endowment, industrial upgrading potential, technical support capacity, social demand conditions, government intervention and other related opportunities, and the evaluation results showed that the energy conservation and environmental protection industry scored the highest among the six emerging industries, followed by the new energy industry. Based on the assessment results, Lianyungang Economic and Technological Development Zone should regard the energy conservation and environmental protection industry and the new energy industry as strategic emerging industries for future development.
Policy suggestions for the development of energy conservation and environmental protection industry in Lianyungang City. Increase the supply of energy conservation and environmental protection industry cultivation policies. As a strategic emerging industry, the energy conservation and environmental protection industry is crucial to promoting the construction of ecological civilization and achieving the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. It will not only help reduce the energy cost of enterprises and improve economic efficiency, but also expand effective investment, stabilize the industrial economy and employment channels. Lianyungang's energy conservation and environmental protection industry is in its infancy, and the government should actively implement relevant national policies to provide more comprehensive support for the high-quality development of the industry. Strengthen the role and function of high-efficiency and low-carbon gas turbines. As an emerging industry, the rapid development of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry depends on the continuous innovation of the core technology of the industry, so the energy conservation and environmental protection industry should be encouraged to rely on high-efficiency and low-carbon gas turbines for technological transformation, strengthen the role and function of the device, and help the rapid development of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry. Guide the active participation of social capital. As an industry with great development potential, the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will have a strong attraction to social capital. In order to promote the rapid growth of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry, the Lianyungang government should actively play a guiding role, encourage and promote the participation of social capital, and jointly cultivate the growth of this industry.
Policy recommendations for the development of the new energy industry. Focusing on the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan", we will promote the high-quality development of the new energy industry. The "14th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development of Lianyungang City" points out that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Lianyungang City should adhere to green development, improve the level of clean utilization of fossil energy, and promote the further scale of the new energy industry. However, the development of the new energy industry is constrained by technical capabilities and technical costs, and the Lianyungang Municipal Government should encourage the new energy industry to focus on relying on high-efficiency and low-carbon gas turbine test devices to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies, reduce technical costs, and help the new energy industry quickly achieve large-scale. Focusing on the implementation of the "dual carbon" goal, we will guide the industry to continue to innovate. Lianyungang City is strategically located and is an important transportation hub of the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road". In the context of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, Lianyungang City should rely on high-efficiency and low-carbon gas turbine units to establish pilot demonstrations, promote the combination of gas turbine devices and new energy industries, and integrate industry, education and research to help enterprises continue to innovate, help Lianyungang City achieve high-quality energy development, and create a strong support point for the "Belt and Road".
Practical thinking on the industrial screening system supported by major scientific and technological infrastructure
Local governments should give full play to the agglomeration role of major scientific and technological infrastructure in strategic emerging industries. The unique test conditions and high-level technical support provided by the facility provide an indispensable material foundation for leading enterprises in emerging industries to explore the frontiers of science and technology, and provide strong support for the region to gather innovation resources, attract high-end talents, promote the research and development and application of new technologies, and promote industrial upgrading. Taking the European Synchrotron Radiation Light Source (ESRF), the British Diamond Light Source and the Shanghai Light Source as examples, they have successfully attracted Fortune 500 and industry leaders such as Roche, Shanghai Innovation Center, and Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical R&D Center with their advanced scientific research equipment and services. The agglomeration of these enterprises has not only promoted the significant growth of the local economy, but also had a strong driving effect on the entire industrial chain and injected strong impetus into the prosperity of the regional economy.
Local governments should dig deep into the diversified industries that can be derived from major scientific and technological infrastructure throughout its life cycle, so as to further enrich and expand the regional industrial ecology. Major scientific and technological infrastructure can produce extensive and far-reaching derivative benefits at all stages of planning, construction and operation. Taking synchrotron radiation light sources as an example, during the construction of their devices, the demand for high-end scientific instruments is extremely strong, and a large number of customized R&D instruments and equipment are required to support the smooth implementation of the project. In the face of this demand, local governments can take the initiative to closely connect with scientific research institutes and systematically sort out the specific needs of various instruments during the construction of the device, so as to efficiently connect the innovation chain and industrial chain resources. Through such cooperation and docking, the local government is expected to attract a number of high-end instrument and equipment R&D and production enterprises to settle in the local area, so as to further promote the upgrading and development of regional industries, strengthen the competitiveness of local industries, and inject new vitality into the sustainable growth of the regional economy.
Local governments should recognize the importance of basic research, strengthen the construction and application of major scientific and technological infrastructure, and strive to make major breakthroughs in the field of original innovation, so as to provide a solid source of support for the vigorous development of strategic new technologies. Taking the new energy vehicle industry in Dongguan as an example, the China Spallation Neutron Source has provided important help for local high-tech enterprises to solve key problems such as the material structure and battery infiltration of new blade batteries. At present, the deep integration of the new generation of information technology, new energy, new materials and biotechnology is reshaping the industrial pattern, making the traditional industrial boundaries more and more blurred. Local governments must continue to aim at the global frontier of science and technology, lead the direction of regional science and technology development, promote organized cooperation between industry, academia and research, and innovate key core technologies, so as to undertake the major mission entrusted by history.
(Authors: Zhang Lingling, School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences, Ministry of Education, Digital Economy Monitoring, Prediction, Early Warning and Policy Simulation, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; HUANG Congli, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; Zhou Feite, Liu Long, School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; Xiang Xu, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Editor: Yang Liuchun; Contributed by Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)