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In the first half of May, the domestic ABS market fell at a high level, and the spot prices of most grades were lowered. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of May 14, the average price of ABS was 12,375 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the price level on May 1.
Basic surface analysis
Supply level: At the beginning of May, the domestic ABS industry load undertook the previous low pattern. After a four-month upward channel, ABS prices have risen to high levels, and the profitability of aggregators has improved. In the middle of the year, there were many operations to increase the load and expand profits, and the average operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises increased by nearly 10% to more than 62%. The production volume has increased at the same time, and the supply of goods in the market has increased accordingly. And there are still expectations for improvement in the market outlook, and the supply side's support for ABS spot is gradually weakening.
Cost factors: Half a month, the trend of the three upstream materials of ABS has generally turned down, of which acrylonitrile has a good rise in raw material prices, but the centralized resumption of maintenance equipment has an overall impact on the acrylonitrile market. At present, the spot price fluctuates and falls, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market may continue to be weak.
Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been stable and falling. After the holiday, the downstream just needs to follow up, and the pressure on the supply side is not obvious. However, the price of the external market weakened, the news of low-price transactions stimulated the domestic market, the buyers' inquiry intention price was low, the mentality of merchants gradually went short, and the market supply and demand fell into a stalemate. It is expected that the short-term butadiene market may be weak.
Since May, the styrene market has continued to decline. The international oil prices fluctuated in the range, and the cost support was poor. The spot demand is dominated by rigid demand, while the price of styrene was previously high, and the downstream resistance to high-end offers was revealed. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate lower in the future.
On the demand side, the main terminal demand of ABS is stable and slightly declining, the overall load of downstream factories is generally stable, and the stocking operation is mainly based on the need to buy. Traders are flexible in taking orders, the low-end of the market offers have increased, and the speed of supply circulation has decreased. The market momentum has weakened, and the demand side has not helped the ABS market well.
Forecast for the future
In the first half of May, domestic ABS prices fluctuated and fell. From a fundamental point of view, the start of ABS polymerization plants has increased significantly, and the supply pressure has gradually risen. The center of gravity of the three upstream materials of ABS has fallen, and the support for the cost side of ABS has weakened. The logic of rigid demand on the demand side remains unchanged, and the help for spot is mediocre. To sum up, it is expected that the ABS market may be weak in the short term.