Author: Cheng Mo
Executive summary: 1. The latest progress of the Kazakh-Israeli war; 2. Serbian President Vučić warmly received the first lady of Ukraine; 3. The Russian military high-level earthquake again; 4. The United States will again aid Ukraine with long-range strike weapons; 5. Budanov talked about the situation in the Kharkiv border area; 6. The United States will announce a new batch of military aid to Ukraine this week; 7. Ukrainian drones successfully attacked a train transporting fuel in Russia; 8. The Ukrainian army destroyed 1,510 enemies in a single day, setting a new record for the second highest in history.
First of all, I will briefly talk about the latest situation in the Kazakh-Israeli war.
About 10 days ago, I criticized the Israeli Government for wasting too much time on the ceasefire and peace talks, and for taking too slow military action to avoid causing too many civilian casualties, resulting in a one-sided war that lasted too long and aroused strong dissatisfaction with Israel in international public opinion. Hours later, Israel's wartime cabinet made the decision to march into Rafah, Hamas's last bastion. Of course, this is only a coincidence of time, and it does not mean that the Israeli government has listened to my criticisms and changed them.
The Israeli army's offensive against Rafah is still advancing steadily and slowly. In close coordination with the Air Force, the Israeli armored units swept from east to west, mainly evacuating civilians, advancing a maximum of several hundred to 1 kilometer a day to resolutely respond to the armed resistance encountered.
The Palestinian people, who originally refused to evacuate, began to evacuate a large number of Palestinians under the guidance of the Israeli army in the face of the warning leaflets dropped by Israeli military planes every day, and at the same time the fierce gunfire continued to sound in their ears, and the Israeli army also used loudspeakers to urge the people to quickly evacuate the war zone according to the designated route. More than 500,000 Palestinians have left Rafah on 14 May, about half of the refugees in the town, according to a United Nations agency on 14 May.
It has always been said that the Palestinian people are not afraid of death and are determined to live and die with Hamas. Facts have proved that in the face of a rain of bullets, there are not many people who dare to sacrifice their lives and forget their lives regardless of their families' lives and deaths. The Israeli army is too concerned about civilian casualties and has been delaying for a long time, so it is so passive now. Facts have proved that long-term pain is better than short-term pain, and the occupation of the Gaza Strip at the beginning of the year may not necessarily cause as many civilian casualties as it does now, but international public opinion has taken the initiative to do so. Thankfully, they finally made up their minds.
At present, the Israeli army has reached the outskirts of Rafah City, occupying about one-third of the eastern part of Rafah near Israel, and it is expected that after further evacuation of civilians, it will soon launch a strong attack on Rafah City. The Israeli side confirmed that most of the surviving hostages were in Rafah, and it was not sure where the high-level Hamas officials who had escaped the net were hiding.
In addition, a small number of scattered remnants of Hamas fighters regrouped in some parts of the northern and central Gaza Strips, and the Israeli army dispatched special forces based on accurate intelligence to eliminate these remnants in a timely manner.
As I mentioned in yesterday's article, on May 12 and 13 local time, Ukraine's First Lady Volodymyr Zelenskaya and Foreign Minister Kuleba arrived in Belgrade for a visit. This is the first visit to Serbia by a high-ranking Ukrainian dignitary since Russia's special military operation in Ukraine in 2022.
Serbian President Vučić's wife, Tamara, warmly received Zelenskaya and her party. Vučić then published a lengthy and enthusiastic post on international social media, saying that he would quickly restore and further strengthen bilateral relations with Ukraine. This means that the thick-eyed Vučić, like Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has begun to distance himself from his big brother Russia for many years.
In order to deepen everyone's impression, today I will post a small video to see how much the always pro-Russian President Vučić and his wife respect the beautiful first lady of Ukraine.
Zelenskaya is a famous Ukrainian screenwriter and writer, and has a pair of children with Zelensky. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Zelenskaya ran around for international aid, won universal respect from the Western camp and the international community, and was selected as one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Time magazine in 2023.
Rumors about corruption and drug abuse of Zelensky and his wife are overwhelming on the Chinese Simplified Chinese Internet, but all of them are rumors and smears by Russian media and Chinese simplified Chinese media. Why is this happening? You get the idea. In fact, there is a strong opposition and independent media in Ukraine, and the president and his wife are required to disclose their assets every year, and their words and deeds are subject to the scrutiny of the whole society. Ukrainian officialdom used to be very corrupt, but under the continuous crackdown of former President Petro Poroshenko and his successor Volodymyr Zelensky in recent years, the officialdom has improved significantly.
On May 14, local time, Russian media reported that Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov, head of the Main Directorate of Cadres of the Russian Ministry of Defense, was arrested on suspicion of a criminal offense.
The Russian security forces began the arrest operation at 5 a.m. on the 13th, and the personnel involved in the arrest were all wearing dark masks. They first knocked on the doors and windows of Kuznetsov's house with a crowbar, then rushed into the bedroom, dragged the general, who was still asleep, out of his bed and escorted him away with his wife.
Kuznetsov, 55, has held leadership positions in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces since 2010, where he is mainly responsible for information security; Since 2023, he has been the director of the General Directorate of Cadres of the Ministry of National Defense, with the rank of lieutenant general.
On April 23 this year, the Russian Investigative Committee reported that Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov had been arrested on suspicion of accepting bribes. Ivanov was appointed Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia in May 2016 and is responsible for the management of the Russian Armed Forces' property, garrison, housing and medical support. He is accused of accepting bribes of at least 1 million rubles (about 79,000 yuan at the current official exchange rate and about 40,000 yuan at the black market exchange rate) and faces up to 15 years in prison.
Meanwhile, President Putin signed a presidential decree on May 14 appointing Patrushev, former secretary of the Russian Security Council, as an assistant to the Russian president.
Interpreting the two things together confirms the analysis in my article two days ago, Shoigu has lost power, and the Kremlin is eager to purge Shoigu's cronies in the army and eliminate Shoigu's influence in the army; At the same time, the intelligence system in the hands of Patrushev, the former secretary of the National Security Council, will not be handed over to Shoigu.
(Captured Yuri Kuznetsov)
Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland revealed on May 14 that Ukraine will receive new long-range weapons this summer. "Ukraine's needs are growing, but I think we'll continue to help, including by providing new long-range weapons that will be put into service on the front lines this summer," she said. ”
I think that this summer Ukraine will definitely receive the missiles and precision-guided bombs used by the F-16 fighters provided by the United States, and at the same time may receive land-launched small-diameter bombs with improved technology. These are effective long-range strike weapons.
The Russian army attacked the Kharkiv border, whether it was an attack or a large-scale attack, and even tried to occupy the city of Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine. On the Chinese Simplified Chinese network, experts talk overwhelmingly every day about "Russian soldiers are directed at Kharkov", and some well-known portals have even opened columns. I understand that many people trust the comments of experts in authoritative media more than the judgments of me, a non-famous amateur, – even though these thunderous experts have not been right about anything in the past two years or so of the Russia-Ukraine war, what if they are right this time. Now let's listen to the most authoritative statement of the Ukrainian high-level.
The head of Ukraine's military intelligence, Lieutenant General Budanov, was interviewed by the New York Times via video call from a bunker on the Kharkiv front line on May 14. In an interview with the media, he said that the Russian army will launch a new round of offensive on the Sumy region in the near future. According to the information he has, the number of Russian troops in this area is small and does not pose a major threat.
He believes that the fighting on the Kharkiv border direction is aimed at distracting the Ukrainian army and is expected to continue for several more days, and he believes that the Ukrainian army is capable of pushing back the Russian army and recovering the occupied territories.
Budanov is a very well-known young general in Ukraine, brave and resourceful, and occasionally big mouth on predictions of the course of the war, but on the whole he is very reliable and deeply trusted by Zelensky. Recently, there have been rumors on the Chinese Simplified Chinese Internet that he is extremely dissatisfied with Syrsky's failure to fortify the Kharkiv border in advance, and publicly scolds. This is pure nonsense. There is no danger on the Russian-Ukrainian border, and no country will set its own defense line within the range of the opponent's artillery. It is professional for Ukraine to set up defensive positions about 10 kilometers from the Russian-Ukrainian border, and it is also a common practice in all countries in the world. With Budanov's ingenuity, even if Syrsky really made a major decision-making mistake, he would only communicate with him in private, and it would never be possible to publicly scold him in violation of professional ethics. I have always known that some self-media people are mentally retarded and like to spread rumors to attract traffic, but they are mentally retarded and shameless to this extent, which is still beyond my imagination.
In my opinion, the Russian army's attempt to create a so-called "security buffer zone" on the Ukrainian side of the border between Sumy-Kharkiv and Russia to prevent cross-border attacks by pro-Ukrainian Russian rebels is essentially a kind of harassment warfare. The Ukrainian army, of course, will not let them succeed.
The important thing is repeated several times: the Russian army is on the Kharkiv border, and at present, it only occupies the "gray zone" of the Ukrainian side of the border line with a depth of 5 kilometers and the Ukrainian side is not defended; The Ukrainian army successfully prevented the Russian army from advancing further on the second day of the Russian offensive; There is no large-scale build-up of Russian troops in this area; All the news that the Russian soldiers are under the city of Kharkiv is blind BB. If someone keeps leaving a message questioning or mocking, I will remove and block them. Don't be unpredictable.
(Lieutenant General Budanov)
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was visiting Kyiv on May 14, told Zelensky that some of the U.S. weapons had arrived in Ukraine. "We know it's a challenging time. Aid is on its way, and some of it has already arrived. This will have a real impact on the defense against the Russian army".
During the meeting, Zelensky urged the United States to provide more military support to the Ukrainian army, including additional air defense support. "Air defense is our biggest shortcoming," he said. We really need to supply the Kharkiv region now with two Patriot air defense systems".
On May 13, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that the U.S. government is working to speed up arms deliveries to Ukraine to help Ukraine reverse its disadvantage. Sullivan said the United States will announce a new arms aid package this week.
A senior U.S. official, who spoke to the media on the same day, said that the $1 billion in artillery, ATACMS missiles and interceptor missiles used by air defense systems approved by U.S. President Joe Biden on April 24 have been delivered to Ukrainian forces. A second tranche of $400 million in military aid is also on the way.
In addition to the above-mentioned $1.4 billion in weapons and ammunition directly extracted from US military stockpiles, after the US Congress passed the appropriation bill for Ukraine, the US Department of Defense also immediately issued a $6 billion arms purchase order for Ukraine, most of which are expected to be delivered within half a year. Sullivan announced a new arms aid package this week, which is expected to be drawn directly from U.S. military stockpiles.
(Ukrainian artillery fiercely shelled Russian positions)
On May 14, Ukrainian drones successfully attacked a Russian railway line in the Volgograd region. The video shows the drone attacking a train that was transporting fuel. The press service of the Volga Railway confirmed that the attack caused the derailment of several tank cars of the train, which damaged almost 300 meters of track due to the derailment of the tank car and the subsequent fire.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 145 battles have taken place on various lines of contact between Russia and Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army has repelled all attacks by the Russian army. During hostilities in all directions in Kharkiv, the Ukrainian army destroyed 162 enemies and destroyed 26 pieces of Russian military equipment; prevented the Russian army from approaching the main positions of the Ukrainian army.
On the 812th day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian General Staff announced that the battle losses of the Russian army (including Russian local, enterprise, and separatist groups) in the past 24 hours were as follows: 1,510 Russian troops were annihilated (dead and seriously wounded), and a total of 486,900 Russian troops were annihilated; Destroyed 14 tanks, 48 armored vehicles, 48 fuel tankers and logistics heavy-duty vehicles, 7 sets of special equipment (mainly electronic warfare equipment), 23 artillery pieces, intercepted 30 large suicide drones, 2 missiles. Among them, the number of enemies destroyed by the Ukrainian army hit a record high of the second highest in history.
It is noted that the single-day personnel losses of the Russian army have increased in recent days, which is mainly due to two reasons: first, the Russian army's tanks, armored vehicles and other heavy equipment are getting fewer and fewer, while the Russian army's "human charge" has increased unabated, which has led to heavy casualties; Second, the Ukrainian army used the obtained tactical missiles of the US Army to frequently strike at the concentration of troops and equipment in depth of the Russian army, causing heavy casualties to the Russian army.
(The battle losses of the Russian army counted by the Ukrainian side on May 15)
Based on various information, I roughly estimate that the losses of Ukrainian officers and soldiers are about 99,000, of which the number of dead and seriously injured is also 1:1, and more than 20,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed. The warriors of Ukraine who died defending their homeland will return to heaven with glory and be with God.
Let us continue to pray persistently: May God give peace and stop wars; Let the wicked be rewarded, and the good be sheltered.