Philippine ships made a large-scale sortie and planned to ram Scarborough Shoal; The Chinese side predicted in advance that the "blunt knife cutting meat" model was about to begin. At stake in peace and stability in the South China Sea, what "small actions" does the Philippines plan to make in the waters near Scarborough Shoal? In the face of the Philippine side's provocative acts, what is China's prediction?
According to a number of Philippine media reports, after sending official ships and coast guard ships to cross the border and invade the waters near Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines recently planned a "South China Sea show" activity, planning to organize Filipino "fishermen" to carry out "civil missions" near Scarborough Shoal from May 14 to 17. According to the report, the event was initiated by a Philippine "non-governmental organization" and included fishermen, farmers' groups, artists, young activists and other social and youth activists.
Compared with the abusive activities launched by leading reporters and organizing fishermen in the South China Sea, it must be admitted that this "South China Sea show" indicates an escalation of the Philippine side's "porcelain touching" methods. You must know that the "non-governmental organizations" that planned this event were not "innocent" as the Philippine side advertised, but were funded by US agencies all year round to stir up trouble on the South China Sea issue and try to influence the provocative forces of the Philippine government on the South China Sea policy.
From this point of view, organizing "non-governmental forces" to brush up on the "presence" in the waters around Scarborough Shoal is nothing more than a trick by the Marcos administration to push forward a new round of infringement actions in the South China Sea and deliberately "touch porcelain and sell miserably". Because the Philippine Coast Guard vessel, which is closely following this civilian team, is ready to maintain the safety of mission participants and the so-called "freedom of navigation".
According to people familiar with the matter, the rally claimed to have more than 100 civilian ships participating, but the actual number of ships attending the event may be greatly reduced. During the event, these Filipino civilian boats, led by official vessels, rushed into the waters near Scarborough Shoal, or cooperated with the Philippine Coast Guard to "pose for photos" and stage a self-directed and self-staged "supply" drama.
Although it is uncertain what kind of "drama" the large-scale Philippine fishing boats will eventually stage in the waters of Scarborough Shoal, what is certain is that there is a considerable political background behind the whole thing, and the US and Philippine militaries have played a very important role in it. After all, shortly after the announcement of the plan to storm Scarborough Shoal, a spokesman for the Philippine Navy publicly expressed solidarity, saying that the Philippine military would support all of its activities. The "non-governmental organization" has carried out several activities in the South China Sea before, and Philippine Navy and coast guard ships have also been "escorted" nearby.
In response to the Philippine side's scheme, China has made a good prediction in advance. According to Russia's Sputnik news agency, in addition to the "regular patrol" operation and stronger maritime law enforcement efforts than before, China also sent a "huge team" to blockade Scarborough Shoal before Philippine NGO vessels left for the area. A former U.S. Air Force officer said on social media that China could assert its sovereignty by launching the "largest" blockade of Scarborough Shoal's waters.
Although the authenticity of this information has yet to be confirmed, it is certain that China will not sit idly by and watch the provocative actions of the Philippine side. On May 13, CCTV released three important pieces of information about Huangyan Dao, revealing that the China Coast Guard has carried out regular training in the waters of Huangyan Island to ensure the safety of people on board ships. It is not difficult to see from the official video materials that the China Coast Guard has performed well in the life-saving training at sea, and the whole ship has strong coordination and cooperation capabilities, and can quickly respond to emergencies such as fishermen accidentally falling overboard.
Some analysts have pointed out that the regular patrol operations of the Chinese coast guard in the waters of Scarborough Shoal are equivalent to "cutting the flesh with a blunt knife" to the Philippines, because with the rapid departure of the normalized police patrol intensity and frequency, it will become very difficult for the Philippine side to "make a fuss" in the relevant waters. For example, the Diaoyu Islands, which have already started regular patrol arrangements, are a typical example. Once the Chinese Coast Guard's patrol operations in the waters of Scarborough Shoal enter the stage of normalization, the Philippine side will face tremendous pressure.