The photovoltaic cell industry is ushering in an opportunity for change, and perovskite cells, which are globally recognized as "the only next-generation photovoltaic technology with commercial prospects", are expected to subvert the market pattern of crystalline silicon cells.
Whether it is the photovoltaic head enterprises LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd., or the perovskite technology research and development enterprises Jidian Solar, GCL Optoelectronics, Micronano Optoelectronics, Liyuan New Energy (Wuxi) Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Liyuan New Energy), as well as Wandu Solar Energy and Zhongneng Solar Storage, which have the background of universities and scientific research institutes, they have all begun to compete to seize the commanding heights of industry competition.
"The conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon cells is close to the technical ceiling, and new technological breakthroughs are needed for the future development of photovoltaic cells." Dr. Chen Han, CTO of Liyuan New Energy, told "Investment Youdao" that perovskite cells have gradually become a new direction for the development of the industry due to their advantages of higher conversion efficiency, lower cost and good low-light power generation performance.
In 2016, Liyuan New Energy made a breakthrough in the research and development of perovskite cell technology, introduced strategic investors in September 2023, and created its own "soft film method" thin film preparation technology to overcome the problem of product stability, and completed the preliminary equipment investment of the 100MW pilot production line.
Grab the perovskite
Liyuan New Energy was established in April 2016 by Dr. Chen Han, a professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
In December 2016, Liyuan New Energy cooperated with the R&D team of Shanghai Jiao Tong University to develop the results of a cell module with an area of 36 square centimeters and an energy conversion efficiency of 12.1%, which was certified by the international authoritative certification body - the National Institute of Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), which was the world's highest efficiency perovskite solar cell module that year.
At that time, Xinhua News Agency made a detailed report, saying that the above research overcame the technical bottleneck of large-scale preparation of perovskite cells, and was of great significance to promote its large-scale industrialization process. The full text was published on the Chinese government website.
Dr. Chen Han said that the company's R&D achievements have greatly promoted the research of low-cost perovskite cells and the process of large-scale industrialization in the future.
Perovskite cells have been favored by the market in recent years due to their advantages of high conversion efficiency, low cost, and wide application scenarios, and are expected to replace crystalline silicon cells and become the next generation of high-efficiency photovoltaic cells.
As we all know, after more than 20 years of development, the technology and market of the mainland photovoltaic crystalline silicon cell industry have been very mature, and the conversion rate of crystalline silicon cells has approached the theoretical limit of 29.4%.
From the perspective of the industry, the market demand of the photovoltaic industry will still be active in 2023, but from the second half of the year, the price of photovoltaic modules will fall significantly, and the bidding price will almost be halved by the end of the year, which will seriously affect the profitability in the fourth quarter.
According to public data, the global installed capacity of PV will exceed 400GW in 2023, a significant increase of more than 70% compared with 2022. Among them, the newly installed capacity of PV in mainland China was 216.88GW, a year-on-year increase of 148.1% over 2022, and the new installed capacity and growth rate reached a record high, and led the global market growth with more than 50% of the global new installed capacity, ranking first in the global new installed capacity for the 11th consecutive year.
However, in the process, the competitive pressure in the industry has become increasingly prominent. In recent years, new and expanded photovoltaic investment projects have been carried out rapidly, and the expansion of upstream and downstream production capacity, coupled with the influx of a large number of cross-border players, has led to a sharp increase in the production capacity of each link in the short term. In 2023, PV product prices have fallen sharply, especially since the fourth quarter of 2023, module bidding prices have repeatedly hit new lows, and module prices have fallen below 1 yuan/W.
According to InfoLink data, polysilicon (polycrystalline dense material) prices will drop by about 70%, wafer and cell (PERC 182) prices will drop by about 60%, and module (PERC 182) prices will drop by about 50% in 2023, which will have a huge impact on the profitability of enterprises. In the short term, the profitability of each manufacturing link in the photovoltaic industry has been compressed.
A number of brokerage research reports pointed out that based on the intensification of industrial competition and the rapid decline in prices, the profit forecast of the photovoltaic industry has been lowered. For example, Donghai Securities pointed out in a research report released in early April that it is expected that the production of silicon wafers will be reduced, and the operating rate of a first-tier enterprise has dropped to about 80%. The total production schedule will fall back to around 70GW in April. Wafer inventories continue to accumulate, with wafer puller inventories reaching around 4 billion pieces, and the pressure on polysilicon inventory is still ongoing. Affected by the sharp drop in wafer prices, cell prices have also begun to loosen and fall, and battery manufacturers' profit margins may decrease.
At the same time, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics also has a downward trend. According to data from the National Energy Administration, 9.02GW of new photovoltaic capacity was added across the country in March this year, down 32% year-on-year.
To this end, in recent years, leading photovoltaic companies have set their sights on perovskite cells as a breakthrough for the company's future development.
The "ultimate" battery technology route?
From the theoretical perspective of the current research, perovskite tandem cells have better conversion efficiency.
According to the research report of Donghai Securities, perovskite cells use perovskite structural materials as light-absorbing materials, which belong to the third generation of high-efficiency thin-film cells, and double-junction tandem perovskite cells can reach 45%.
Perovskite is a general term for ABX3 structural cubic crystal compounds, and the A, B, and X positions are occupied by three different types of ions, each type corresponds to a rich variety of specific ions, and different ion combinations can obtain perovskite materials with different physical properties. The A position ion determines the system of perovskite materials, and at present, methylamine ions, formamidine ions, and cesium ions are commonly used, while the B position is usually divalent cations, and the X position is halogen ions.
In 1994, researchers discovered that the electrical properties of organic-inorganic perovskite materials change with the change of crystal dimension, providing the possibility of their application in the photovoltaic field.
In 2010, Henry Snaith founded Oxford PV, the world's first perovskite photovoltaic cell company. In the same year, Fan Bin and others established Xiamen Weihua Solar, the first company engaged in perovskite photovoltaic cells in China. The global research and development of perovskite cells has entered the fast lane.
By 2013, perovskite cells were named one of the top 10 breakthroughs of the year by Science magazine.
In 2016, Dr. Chen Han, who returned from studying in Japan, founded Liyuan New Energy; In the same year, Micronano Optoelectronics, Wandu Solar and other companies were established one after another; In this year, the policy of the perovskite cell industry was officially released, but Huasolar was acquired by GCL Group, and the conversion rate of perovskite cells made a major breakthrough. Therefore, 2016 is also known as the first year of perovskite cell entrepreneurship by the market.
As a third-generation solar cell, perovskite cells have an advantage in addition to outstanding conversion rate and low cost. Perovskite cell raw materials are cheap and easy to obtain, and the module process is short. According to the research report of Donghai Securities, the current investment in the 100MW pilot line is 70 million to 80 million yuan, and after reaching the mass production maturity level, the single GW production capacity is expected to only need 500 million yuan of investment, and the module cost is expected to be 0.5 to 0.6 yuan/W.
In addition, another outstanding feature of perovskite cells is their good performance in low-light power generation.
Dr. Chen Han introduced that by changing the chemical composition of perovskite materials, the wavelength of light absorbed by them can be adjusted. Perovskite layers tuned to different wavelengths can be stacked on top of each other or on top of conventional crystalline silicon solar cells to form cells that can absorb more of the solar spectrum. "Even on cloudy and rainy days, it can maintain a high photoelectric conversion rate."
Liyuan New Energy 300mmX400mm high-efficiency perovskite cell module
At present, the efficiency of perovskite cells has risen rapidly, from the proposal of the technology to the laboratory efficiency from 3.8% to 26.1%, in only 12 years.
It is the multiple advantages of perovskites that make it more and more valued by the photovoltaic industry, and is globally recognized as "the only next-generation photovoltaic technology with commercial prospects", and is even expected to become a win-win solution for the industry in the "ultimate" battery technology route.
Broad application scenarios
At present, there are two different path development directions for the photovoltaic industry, one is the traditional photovoltaic based on power generation, and the other is the building photovoltaic materials based on "power generation + construction".
As early as May 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of New Energy in the New Era", proposing to improve the integrated photovoltaic application technology system and expand the consumer group of photovoltaic power production.
In March 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in the Building Sector", pointing out: "Formulate and improve relevant standards and atlases for the integrated construction of building photovoltaics, and pilot the construction of photovoltaic integration in new buildings such as industrial plants, public buildings, and residential buildings." ”
More than 95% of the solar cells currently in use are crystalline silicon cells. However, one of the disadvantages of crystalline silicon cells is that they cannot be too thin, they need to be thick and opaque, so the weight of crystalline silicon cells is 10 to 15 kilograms per square meter, which can only be installed on the roof of buildings or roofs with high strength, and it is not suitable for glass curtain walls.
Perovskite is a crystalline structure, and perovskite cells use thin films formed by crystallization such as iodine and lead to generate electricity, and the weight is only about one-tenth of that of crystalline silicon. Moreover, the perovskite cell has good light transmittance, which does not affect the aesthetics of the external wall of the building.
In addition, crystalline silicon cells are greatly affected by the angle of illumination, while perovskite cells are basically unaffected, and can even use indoor light to generate electricity.
At present, BI PV is an emerging application scenario in the photovoltaic industry, which is in the stage of explosive growth. According to the International Energy Agency's photovoltaic project team (IEA-PVPS), the European photovoltaic building market will grow by about 200MW to 300MW per year, and the global photovoltaic building market will grow by about 1GW per year. The installed photovoltaic capacity of existing buildings in mainland China is 10 billion square meters, and the new buildings have an annual photovoltaic installed capacity potential of 120 million square meters.
In the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's "14th Five-Year Plan" for building energy efficiency and green building development, it is planned that by 2025, the installed capacity of new buildings will reach 50GW, and the renewable energy replacement rate of urban buildings will reach 8%.
According to Dr. Chen Han, according to the market demand for the renovation of existing buildings and new buildings, it is conservatively estimated that the market demand for building photovoltaic integration in mainland China exceeds 1 trillion yuan.
In addition to glass curtain wall application scenarios, perovskite cells can also be used in wearable photovoltaics, new energy vehicles and other fields, as well as modern agriculture and large-scale ground power station scenarios based on the flexible characteristics of thin films. In the context of continuous technological breakthroughs, broad market prospects and national policy support, in recent years, the popularity of perovskite cells has been increasing, and social capital has flocked in.
At the beginning of 2021, Micronano Optoelectronics completed the C round of financing, with an investment of 360 million yuan from Three Gorges Capital, Jingneng Group, Quzhou Financial Holdings, Three Gorges Zhaoyin and other investors.
In October 2021, Jidian Solar received an investment of 220 million yuan from Country Garden Venture Capital, Jiuzhi Capital, CCB International, Yunlin Fund and other institutions.
In 2022, GCL Optoelectronics completed two rounds of financing, amounting to hundreds of millions of yuan, with investment institutions including Tencent, Temasek Investment, Sequoia China, IDG Capital, etc.
Industry leader
In September 2023, Liyuan New Energy completed the A round of financing and introduced strategic investors, including Shenyu Co., Ltd. and Liuzhou Financial Holding Mingde Yuesheng Equity Investment Management Center (Limited Partnership) to invest tens of millions of yuan in the preparation of the preliminary equipment investment of the 100MW pilot production line.
It is reported that the Liyuan new energy technology team from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, industry-university-research is highly linked, the company has 32 related technology invention patents, 18 authorized patents. At the same time, the senior management team has many years of experience in the new material industry and commercialization.
Chen Han believes that at present, perovskite technology still has defects in stability and large-area preparation, and the technology is still in the early stage of industrialization, most of which are in the 100MW pilot stage, and a variety of technical routes coexist, and commercial mass production is not yet mature.
LONGi Green Energy also previously said that the company's perovskite cell technology is currently in the laboratory research and development stage.
According to the introduction, through years of technology research and development, Liyuan New Energy has created the original "soft film method" thin film preparation technology, which has improved the uniformity of large-area perovskite modules to 97%, and pioneered the use of graphene and other materials to improve the efficiency and stability of the device.
At present, the trans device efficiency of Liyuan New Energy perovskite cells exceeds 25%, and the efficiency of large-area modules exceeds 19%, which is at the leading level in the industry. In terms of service life, through laboratory tests, the stability has broken through the IEC international photovoltaic standard, and the converted service life is more than 20 years.
Chen Han told "Investment Youdao" that the company's self-developed soft film slit coating technology uses capillary action and surface tension to regulate film coating, uses pressure action and solvent-free, precursor controls film coating, and uses superhydrophobic soft film to achieve continuous large-area uniform film coating preparation, and the uniform thickness of square meter film is increased from 92% to more than 97% by traditional methods, which can ensure efficiency, stability and large-scale production at the same time.
Liyuan New Energy 300mmX400mm perovskite cell R&D experimental line
According to published information, the conversion efficiency of GCL's perovskite single-junction modules is 18.04% (2m2) and 26.17% for large-scale commercial use of large-area perovskite modules. The steady-state efficiency of the large-size perovskite module is 19.5%.
In terms of commercial project application, the world's first GW-level perovskite module production line of Jidian Solar is about to be capped, GCL Optoelectronics' GW-level perovskite production base is under construction, the 1 MW perovskite ground photovoltaic power station of Micronano Optoelectronics has been officially launched, and the 100-megawatt pilot production line of Liyuan New Energy is about to be completed.
At present, Liyuan New Energy has been preparing for the large-scale commercial application of large-area perovskite modules, and has recently signed cooperation intentions with a number of leading construction enterprises to vigorously promote building photovoltaic integration projects.
In terms of financing, "the company plans to carry out Series B financing and introduce new strategic investors for production line investment and technology upgrading and iteration." Chen Han said.