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introduction
The sharp fall of the yen in the market, which is in an uproar, is not only a fluctuation in the exchange rate, but also a currency war in which the United States is making a mistake for China and secretly showdowning behind it.
In this context, the question of whether Asian partners can hold their own economic positions is still uncertain. Two days ago, the "jumping" depreciation of the yen suddenly became a hot topic in the market. Many people are wondering whether this is a ruthless move by the United States to suppress China's manufacturing, even if it drags Japan into the water.
If the truth is what they say, then this deep-seated financial battle and the cascading reactions it has triggered may be 10,000 times more complex and far-reaching than we think.
Behind the suicidal depreciation of the yen
The yen has been plunged downward, and there is a joking call in the market for its "suicidal" devaluation. In fact, the calculation behind this trick is much more complicated than the exchange rate on the surface. The depreciation of the yen seems to be to solve its own problems, but in fact, it may be that the United States is strategizing behind the scenes and wants to reshuffle the overall economic situation in Asia.
Let's talk about what this trick will cause directly. Friends in Southeast Asia have to panic one by one because of the liquidity shortage. If this drama is really sung, the risk of foreign exchange reserves of those Asian countries will increase, and the exchange rate will not be able to withstand it, which may cause a chain reaction like dominoes and upset the economic stability of the whole of Asia.
If we look back at the 1997 financial crisis that caused headaches in Asia, it was an economic disaster caused by currency depreciation. At this moment, the renminbi stabilized and became a lifesaver for the Asian economy. Despite the sharp fall of the yen, the RMB exchange rate is still steady, hovering between 7.22 and 7.24.
But we have to be reminded that the US strategy did not end so quickly. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the dollar's soaring momentum are all the big killers in this currency war in the United States. The goal of the United States is not simply to devalue the currency. Behind them may be trying to use this currency war to stumble China's foreign trade and weaken the fierceness of Chinese manufacturing in the global market.
The U.S. challenge to Made in China
The United States has made frequent moves, seemingly scattered but actually intentional, and the serial design has "encircled and suppressed" the global competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. This series of strategies is like a well-choreographed set of punches, each punch aimed at the weakness of Made in China.
Let's take a look at trick one, the dollar's "tiger" interest rate hike policy, which can shrink global liquidity, and greatly reduce the enthusiasm for international free trading. This is not a joke, the big brothers on the production line around the world, such as Japan, South Korea, and Germany, have been injured, and China's manufacturing industry has to face the double problem of blocked exports and slowing growth.
Let's talk about the second trick, the United States does not hesitate to use the financial stick to force the American banks not to invest money in Chinese manufacturing enterprises. As soon as this trick is made, the Chinese-made treasury will have to be nervous. The United States has also acted alone to characterize China as a developed country, which has deprived China of its status as a "developing country" under the WTO framework, and China's manufacturing competitiveness has also suffered a considerable blow.
Followed by the third trick, the United States and Japan have joined forces to boost the development of manufacturing in Southeast Asia and India, and want to lead the production line of China's manufacturing industry outward. The calculation behind this trick is to make the global market less dependent on Chinese manufacturing through the diversification of geography and latitude and longitude. The U.S. has also colluded with Mexico to censor and restrict Chinese manufacturers from investing in Mexico to enter the U.S. market.
Finally, let's talk about the fourth trick, the United States launched the depreciation of the yen, which gave Japan and South Korea's manufacturing industry an advantage everywhere, and also made the price advantage of Chinese manufacturing a lot smaller. This move not only directly hit China's direct rivals, but also indirectly affected the payment status of the renminbi in international trade, and the efficiency of the use of the renminbi also decreased.
A collective test for Asian currencies
The yen has been falling all the time, which has reheated the topic of the stability of Asian currencies and exposed the fragility of regional cooperation. The renminbi is as hard as a tumbler and has become the fixer of the Asian economy, but this is only the beginning.
If the RMB exchange rate is stable, it will have a big event to celebrate for Asia and even the global economy. Nowadays, the trading village of the global village is so close, and the stability and instability of the renminbi is not only related to the future direction of China's economy, but also determines whether Asian and even global trade can be smooth and profitable. It's just that the United States has recently made a lot of moves, and it is trying to weaken the status of the renminbi in the international community.
Next, we have to talk about the countries of Southeast Asia, in this currency storm, they seem to be particularly "glass-hearted". For example, Vietnam's exchange rate has fallen so badly that it has given the entire regional economy a red light. Southeast Asia, as an important processing and transit station made in China, has a direct impact on China's foreign trade due to its economic stability and instability. Therefore, maintaining the stability of Southeast Asian currencies is a crucial task for the economy of China and the whole of Asia.
epilogue
We all know how majestic the dollar used to be in the market, but now? Everyone wants it to "abdicate and make way for the virtuous", so that the renminbi has become a new star and stepped onto the international stage.
Now Asian countries seem to be twisted into a rope, wholeheartedly improving their own strength and increasing their ability to resist strong winds and waves. What a good thing this is, not only to make our Asian economy more and more solid, but also to play a more important role in the world economy.
However, the road is long, and we can't get carried away. The road ahead is still very long, and there are still many ditches and bumps waiting for us. Therefore, Asian partners should remain vigilant and always be ready to face the risks and challenges that may cause sabotage.
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