#文章首发挑战赛#
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Text: Xu Xu.
Edited by Xu Xu.
The defense line of the Ukrainian Red Army village was broken by the Russian army, and the frantic offensive of the Russian army has brought Ukraine to the brink of crisis. From a strategic perspective, the fall of the Red Army village will completely cut off Ukraine's supply lines, so that it will be in a situation of passive beating on the Donetsk front.
After the Russian army has made phased progress, how will it exert pressure next? And how can Ukraine save itself? What is the underlying crisis behind this ongoing fierce war? Let's find out.
The Russian army frantically assaulted Ukraine's life hanging by a thread
The fall of the village of the Red Army is tantamount to cutting off the lifeblood of the Ukrainian army, the loss of which will be the beginning of the collapse of Ukraine on all fronts in the Donetsk region. The Russian offensive is a implementation of the concept of "tenacious, resolute, rapid and decisive" struggle, aimed at cutting off Ukraine's transportation and supply lines in one fell swoop.
The Russian defense minister sent a personal congratulatory message to the troops participating in the battle, which fully reflects the importance that the upper echelons attach to this battle. The Ukrainian army passively blocked the attack, the defense line was constantly broken, and the situation was dangerous.
Why is the Ukrainian army in such a predicament?
The "friendly" support that the Ukrainian army relies on is far from enough to compete with Russian firepower. The lagging pace of Western military aid and the incompleteness of the supporting system are the key cruxes of the tightening of the Ukrainian army. The deeper reason is that Ukraine has not been able to learn from the successful experience of other countries in army construction, and its overall combat readiness is far inferior to that of the Russian army.
Soared all the way to the Red Army Village
The village of the Red Army is located on the western flank of the Donetsk front and plays a pivotal role in the conflict on the entire eastern front. It is not only a transit point for the supply of ammunition for the Ukrainian army, but also runs through many communication arteries. Once lost, the supply line of the Ukrainian army in the region will be completely cut off, and the front-line troops will be surrounded and gradually swallowed up by the Russian army in the event of running out of ammunition and food.
After launching a fierce assault on the front line of the Red Army Village, the 74th Brigade of the Russian Army captured a number of strategic points and broke through the Ukrainian defense line for several kilometers. The Russian defense minister sent a congratulatory telegram to the officers and men of the brigade, praising them for their "heroic, desperate efforts, and charging into battle" and saying that the troops were fighting for the honor of the country.
The fall of the village of the Red Army has become an indisputable fact, the defensive positions of the Ukrainian side have been destroyed, and frustration has spread among the army. Although the Ukrainian government claims that it still has the strength to fight back, lies cannot hide the crux of the problem forever.
Opinions are wrangling
The Russian side insists on offensive dominance
The Russian side believes that the Donetsk region, once controlled, will effectively cut off the possibility of the continued existence of the pro-European regime in Ukraine. Through continuous efforts, the Russian army took advantage of the situation, smashed Ukraine's vital points, and adopted an offensive strategy of taking the lead and catching the lightning.
The Ukrainian side turned to international public opinion for help
The Ukrainian government is trying its best to ask for help from the international community and use the public opinion of Western countries to pressure Russia. But the absolute backwardness of military strength makes the Ukrainian army powerless.
Neutral countries remain cautious
Neutral countries are cautious about the eventual course of the war, calling for a dialogue to resolve the conflict. After all, an escalation of the situation would exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and trigger greater regional instability.
So, what are the prospects for Ukraine in the head-to-head contest between Russia and Ukraine? At what price will Russia have to pay to gain the strategic initiative? What kind of harm will this war bring to regional peace?
Dissect the underlying drivers and effects
Throughout the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the root cause lies in geopolitical games and great power wrestling. The long-standing contradiction between the pro-Russian and pro-European forces in Ukraine finally erupted, which became the fuse of the confrontation between Russia and the Western camp.
The pro-Russian faction believes that Ukraine has been pro-Russian for a long time, and severing relations with Russia is tantamount to "cutting meat"; The pro-Europeans, on the other hand, believe that only by integrating into the European system can Ukraine truly move towards civilizational modernization.
The Russia-Ukraine war, in a geopolitical sense, is an inevitable product of the invasion of Russia's traditional sphere of influence by Western forces. In order to prevent Ukraine from being pro-Western and marginalized, Russia has to defend its strategic interests in the Black Sea region by force.
Once the Red Army village falls, Ukraine's military power in the entire Donetsk region will fall apart. After the Russian army is destroyed, the hinterland of the eastern front will be unprepared for the enemy's attack, and the pro-European camp on the western front will become the target of the Russian army's next march to the city. On the contrary, if the Ukrainian army's stubborn resistance wins, Russia's strategic deployment will be passive, and Russia's influence in the Black Sea region will also suffer a heavy blow.
Future direction and countermeasures
Optimistically:
If Russia and Ukraine are finally able to cease fire and negotiate under the mediation of the international community, the situation will hopefully ease, and there is still a chance to avoid further escalation of local conflicts.
In the pessimistic scenario:
Once the negotiations break down, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will inevitably fall into a long-term-for-tat stalemate. At that time, the two sides will inevitably restore the balance of military power through large-scale mobilization, thereby exacerbating the intensity of the conflict. The consequence would be a sea of fires for the whole of Europe, and the economic, refugee, humanitarian crises would intensify to an unbearable level.
The Chinese government responds:
- Uphold an objective and neutral position and do not make any unfair comments.
- We will continue to call for a calm and rational settlement of disputes to avoid the situation from deteriorating and escalating.
- Contribute China's wisdom to the peace process and safeguard regional security and stability when conditions permit.
A collection of netizens' views
Online public opinion has expressed its views on the current situation in Ukraine:
Lao Wu: Ukraine has been corrupt and divided for many years, and it is long overdue for Ukraine to make a painful determination to cure the root cause, otherwise it can only be beaten by the Russians.
Eastern Front Positions: As a former Soviet republic, the pro-European motives of Ukraine's upper echelons are complete wishful thinking, and Russia did not expect to be so ruthless. Why is Russia so cold-blooded and ruthless?
Shame on Avalon: Western countries use Ukraine as a shield, while the Ukrainian rulers are fooled, and this is the greatest sorrow.
Warriors of Bujia: Ukraine is already a poor country and cannot withstand a lasting blow. However, once Russia occupies it, it will one day withdraw its troops, and then it will be an even greater attrition for the Russian side.
New Era Insight: The purpose of Russia's defeat of Ukraine is to avoid NATO getting close to its homeland, and Ukraine is forced to be drawn into it. The conflict will eventually be put on the shelf, and now it is just a matter of the two sides constantly colliding in the intensification of contradictions.
Rational speculation: Ukraine will only fall victim to the game between Russia and the West, but all parties should take into account the interests of the people and avoid a full-scale war. Plunging an already volatile region into even greater chaos is undoubtedly the worst outcome.
Human nature from the perspective of war
All wars originate from the greed and bigotry of human nature, and will eventually hurt the beautiful and innocent parts of human nature. Looking at the causes of this Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is nothing less than a contest between barbarism and rationality in modern civilization.
Russia's hegemony is aggressive, but its demands to preserve territorial integrity are not unreasonable; Ukraine's pro-European impulse is somewhat reckless, but the pursuit of democratic civilization is also human.
Whatever the outcome, both sides of the conflict will pay a heavy price and suffer trauma from the fighting. But are we also ignoring some of the nobler beings because of this?
War should not be a way to resolve differences, and peace should be the common pursuit of mankind. In the face of various contradictions and conflicts, we should use wisdom and courage to resolve them, so as to avoid hurting world peace and human dignity. This is the path to civilized and rational humanity.