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Text: Xu Xu.
Edited by Xu Xu.
In the turbulent smoke of war, or in the auspicious health of the era of peace, we always have a common imagination: pray that the long river of history will never be free of gunsmoke, and that the health can be immortal.
But reality often ruthlessly shatters beautiful dreams, and the aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian war is not over, and Ukraine will fall into unprecedented turmoil.
As a consistent modern storyteller, we have an obligation to sit on the sidelines, dissect the fog of Ukraine's future sharply, and seek the light of the road.
Zelensky stepped down? The chaos of the regime is a foregone conclusion
Zelensky's personal prestige is irreplaceable, and Ukraine will fall into internal and external troubles!
Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine in 2022 has put the country in the spotlight of international attention. In this catastrophe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky single-handedly became the spiritual leader of the whole people, and his personal prestige is irreplaceable and his appeal is unique.
But just as he is about to pass his re-term as president, Zelensky is facing an unprecedented crisis – a power vacuum and a question about the legitimacy of the regime.
Why is it in such a predicament?
According to Ukrainian law, Zelensky's presidential term expires on May 20, 2024. However, due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine's main political parties hope that Zelensky can remain in power and avoid a power vacuum in this special period. However, extending the term of office will undoubtedly trigger new legal battles and weaken the legitimacy of Zelensky's power.
So how will Ukraine resolve this impasse? Here are a few possibilities that might give us some inspiration:
One solution would be to temporarily transfer power to the current speaker of the parliament, Stefan Kosuk, after Zelenskyy's term expires on May 20, to assume the position of acting president until a new president is born.
This approach is borrowed from how President Viktor Yanukovych stepped down in 2014. At that time, after Yanukovych stepped down, power was once represented by the then speaker of parliament, Turchinov.
Another possibility is that Zelensky will remain in power in a "transitional" manner after May 20 until the war ends and a new round of presidential elections can be held.
However, no matter what plan is adopted, there are more or less legal risks, which may be questioned and opposed by public opinion at home and abroad. The power vacuum in Ukraine and the dark clouds of questioning the legitimacy of the regime seem to be inevitable.
The bane of the power vacuum
According to statistics, in 2022 alone, the Russia-Ukraine war has caused 13,600 civilian casualties.
Ukraine is under unprecedented pressure. Once the power vacuum is generated, the Ukrainian army may lose its unified command, and its positions will be chaotic, making it even more difficult to deal with the offensive of the Russian army. At the same time, if the new power lacks a basis for legitimacy, Russia may take advantage of the situation and further expand its influence in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova has publicly stated: "The Ukrainian regime has lost all legitimacy, and we will decide whether to recognize it or not depending on the situation."
Such extremely threatening rhetoric reflects Russia's ambition to deliberately destroy the legitimate regime in Ukraine. Under the blow of internal and external troubles, Ukraine's prospects will be bleak.
At first glance, there are many contradictions, but in fact there are solutions
Looking at Ukraine's predicament, there are indeed many contradictions, but there is still an opportunity to find a bright road.
First of all, Zelensky himself is strongly vigilant against the abuse of power, which is fundamentally conducive to avoiding the emergence of a one-party dictatorship in Ukraine. He has repeatedly stated: "We will build a system to prevent family interests and abuse of power." To that end, we are building an anti-corruption agency. "
Zelensky said: "I have my own opinions, and I will not seek to be an agent of power...... Otherwise, people will say that I am the president installed by Russia. "
Second, even if Zelensky really comes to power in a "transitional" way in the future, he still needs to win the hearts and minds of the people and gain wider recognition through certain channels.
According to the latest poll by the polling agency, Zelensky's current approval rating is as high as 93%.
Such a high approval rating is itself an important source of legitimacy for the regime.
Third, major Western countries also highly recognize Zelensky. US President Joe Biden once highly praised him, calling him a "true hero" and a "brave man". Before the power vacuum comes, it is believed that Western countries will also increase their support for the Zelensky regime.
The West is helping Zelenko to be re-elected
Historically, it has been a common practice to temporarily extend the presidential term in times of war. The United States has a similar precedent of extending the presidential term to ensure national security.
Zelenskyy's office is reportedly trying to convince Western allies that Russia is plotting to undermine its legitimacy in Ukraine and the West.
If Zelensky is recognized and supported by the United States and other Western countries, and retains the legitimacy of his regime by amending relevant laws and the Constitution, then he is expected to remain re-elected and consolidate his ruling position. Of course, this will be a controversial process.
The international community should understand and support it
Regardless of the final outcome, Ukraine will go through an extremely difficult time. Faced with the twin crises of external invasion and internal power vacuum, Ukraine is in an extremely difficult predicament. This danger is not only related to the fate of Ukraine as a country, but will also have a profound impact on the peace process in Europe as a whole.
In this special period, it is incumbent upon the international community to give Ukraine more support and understanding. Whether Zelensky stays in office or not, we should conform to the will of the people and respect the choice of the Ukrainian people. Developing peace and opposing war is the fundamental way to solve the problem. Let us all hope that Ukraine will soon be able to overcome this hurdle and move towards peace and prosperity.
Netizens hotly discussed:
This incident quickly aroused heated discussions among netizens on the Internet, and some netizens believed:
As a wartime leader, Zelensky's personal prestige and appeal are truly irreplaceable. If he is forced to step down, Ukraine will fall into a new round of turmoil, the forces to counter the Russian army will be more scattered, and the legitimacy of the new regime will also become an entry point for Russia to take advantage of the situation. So one way or another, Zelensky's continued stay in power is the best option for Ukraine.
Some netizens also think:
If Zelensky forcibly takes power in a "transitional" manner, it will inevitably weaken the legitimacy of his regime and create a pretext for Russia to confuse public opinion and exaggerate the "coup". At the same time, the Russian-Ukrainian war has already lasted so long, and if it is exchanged again, Ukraine will suffer internal and external troubles, and the losses it will suffer will be incalculable. Therefore, the best option is to hold the presidential election as scheduled.
Some netizens think:
In the end, the crisis is still caused by the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war. To solve the problem once and for all, the two sides must first stop the war and restart the peace process. If Zelensky can gain broad international recognition and support, and preserve the legitimacy basis for his regime by amending laws, constitutional procedures, etc., he may be able to remain in power and focus on fighting the Russian invasion.
In the face of the changing political outlook in Ukraine, each of us may have our own different views. But it is undeniable that this crisis will deeply affect the fate of Ukraine and Europe as a whole. At this special historical juncture, a cold eye and sharp analysis will help us better understand the essence of the problem and see the glimmer of light in the darkness. Let us all hope that Ukraine will be able to overcome this difficulty at an early date and move towards true peace and prosperity.