Since the implementation of the U.S. chip supply restriction in 2019, China's semiconductor market has been seriously affected by it.
Huawei, ZTE and other companies have seen their revenues shrink sharply, and their operations have been challenged.
And in the recent meeting of the U.S. Congress, Raimondo once again attacked Huawei to limit the recovery of China's semiconductor industry!
But what the United States did not expect was that under the multiple restrictions of the United States, the mainland's semiconductor industry not only did not languish, but ushered in a new prosperity.
In addition, the share of Dutch lithography machine exports to China continues to grow, which is unexpected by the United States.
So under the circumstance of being restricted, how did the mainland semiconductor industry usher in rapid development, and what trend will the global semiconductor industry move towards in the future?
1. The implementation of the U.S. restrictions
Chips play an irreplaceable and important role in the contemporary industrial system.
As the essential core brain of home appliances, smart homes, machinery and even automobiles, it can be said to encompass all aspects of consumers' lives.
Therefore, the competition in the semiconductor industry in various countries around the world is unprecedentedly severe, and in the field of the most cutting-edge high-precision chips, ASML in the Netherlands occupies a leading position in the industry with the production technology of EUV lithography machines.
In the field of chip packaging, Samsung and TSMC are competing for power, and the design part of the world's cutting-edge chips is monopolized by Qualcomm, Apple, Intel and other companies in the United States.
For example, in the early days of mobile phone chips and systems, computer chips and systems, most of the domestic brands in the mainland were "compradors" of Western technology chips, seeking a lot of economic benefits for Western enterprises.
As global competition continues to intensify, if the mainland cannot produce its own core chips, then the protection and use of national defense projects such as state secrets will be restricted.
In order to break through the monopoly of the West, the mainland has vigorously supported its own technology companies, among which Huawei dares to be the first.
With the investment of hundreds of billions of scientific research funds, Kirin chips and Hongmeng systems were produced, breaking the monopoly of the West.
With excellent performance and high cost performance, Kirin chips quickly occupied the market as soon as they were launched, and became TSMC's second largest customer.
Kirin chips are second only to Apple's A-series chips and Qualcomm's Snapdragon chips, becoming the world's third largest chip manufacturer.
Not only that, Huawei's HarmonyOS system is challenging the market share of Google's Android and Apple's IOS system.
In just half a year after its launch, it quickly gained more than 100 million installed capacity, and it was in the limelight for a while.
However, due to the excellent performance of Huawei's chips, the United States is feeling the pressure.
For the U.S. semiconductor industry, it has design capabilities, but it also does not have a complete chip industry chain.
If Huawei is allowed to develop, it will hinder the revenue of Intel, Apple, Qualcomm and other companies in the United States in the future.
In order to restrict the development of China's semiconductor industry, the United States has launched an investigation into more than 100 Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE in the name of national security.
In the end, it unilaterally believed that Chinese companies threatened the "national security" of the United States, and implemented a policy of cutting off the supply of Chinese semiconductors.
The most critical core point of the implementation of the supply interruption policy lies in the requirements for TSMC and ASML.
TSMC was asked not to do chip foundry for Chinese companies, and ASML was not allowed to sell advanced EUV lithography machines to Chinese mainland.
The implementation of the U.S. restrictions has brought down China's booming semiconductor industry.
Huawei was deeply affected, with a sharp decline in revenue, and even faced a crisis moment when the consumer terminal business was shut down.
China's semiconductor industry is deeply restricted by the United States, so why is the United States still not satisfied in the following time?
Even at the expense of the revenue losses of domestic enterprises, continue to impose restrictions on Chinese enterprises?
2. The reasons for the continued implementation of the U.S. supply cutoff order
Despite the staggering power of the U.S. restrictions, they are also inherently costly for U.S. companies.
China is currently the world's largest chip demand market, with the world's largest demand for high-precision chips.
Due to the implementation of the U.S. supply cut policy, U.S. chip companies, such as Intel, Nvidia and other companies, have lost a large number of orders.
Therefore, in order to make up for the loss of turnover, in line with the idea of "there are policies and countermeasures", American companies began to develop special chips for the mainland.
Among them, Qualcomm, because Huawei is restricted from chip production, Huawei's new machine can only purchase Qualcomm's Snapdragon chips.
However, Huawei's 5G technology was blocked by the United States, so Qualcomm launched Huawei's special 4G Snapdragon chip.
For example, Intel has curbed the development of AI technology in China due to the restrictions on high-end CPUs in the United States.
Intel changed the process method of traditional chips and "crossed the sea" to trade with the Chinese mainland market.
In addition, due to the continuous implementation of the U.S. restrictions, ASML's revenue also ushered in a huge decline.
Although ASML is currently the only technology company in the world that has mastered high-precision EUV lithography machines, each EUV lithography machine costs hundreds of millions of dollars.
Therefore, there are only a handful of countries in the world that have the purchasing capacity of EUV lithography machines.
In order to stabilize revenue, ASML has increased its trade with China's DUV lithography machine, which has led to the rapid development of China's low-end chip industry.
Cutting chip orders from American companies has caused companies such as Intel to suffer from a backlog of chips and suffer heavy losses!
The U.S. government never imagined that its own companies would behave in such a way as to "eat inside and out", and did not expect that the implementation of the chip restriction would bring such a serious ripple effect.
But at this time, the chip restriction has been implemented for 4 years, and the United States is already difficult to ride.
To this end, the United States can only unite with Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and other countries to establish a community of interests and implement two rounds of restrictions on China's semiconductor market.
In the previously concluded session of the U.S. Congress, Raimondo once again started the show and continued to attack Chinese companies.
Among them, Raimondo questioned Nvidia's behavior of tailoring two chips for China to deceive the review of the restriction order during the hearing, and was furious, saying that he would punish Nvidia for violating the restriction order.
And Raimondo also took advantage of this to put pressure on the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea and other countries to stop providing lithography machine services to China.
It even demanded that ASMl terminate the export of DUV lithography machines to China.
Not only that, Raimondo even plans to start with the raw material market, banning China from importing silicon-based materials necessary for chip manufacturing, in order to cut off the booming Chinese semiconductor industry from the source.
Despite the wishful thinking of the United States, in the face of the "life and death" of business operations, its so-called chip restrictions may not be able to make the world's major companies comply.
Just after another round of restrictions in the United States intensified, the Dutch company ASML increased its export orders for lithography machines to China, which surprised the United States.
The sharp increase in Dutch lithography machine exports to China has undoubtedly cast a shadow over the prospects for the implementation of the US chip restrictions.
So can the U.S. chip restrictions continue to exist in the future, and where will the world's semiconductor competition go?
3. Outlook for the global semiconductor market in the future
ASML, as a Dutch company, has a monopoly on the development and manufacturing of EUV lithography machines.
Why should we be constrained by the United States, obey the "orders" of the United States, and ensure the normal implementation of the US restrictions at the expense of our own revenue?
This is because although ASML has the core technology for the production of EUV lithography machines, EUV lithography machines, as the "crown jewel" in the field of science and technology, require more than 100,000 parts to assemble.
The precision of the parts of the EUV lithography machine also has strict requirements, and a large number of raw materials for the EUV lithography machine need to be imported from the United States, which is one of the reasons why ASML is subject to the United States.
Moreover, although ASML is ostensibly a Dutch company, there is actually American capital behind it.
As for the origin of ASML, the fundamental reason for its birth was to confront traditional semiconductor companies such as Toshiba in Japan.
Therefore, it is the cooperation of Intel, TSMC and other companies to provide ASML with start-up capital and business support to ensure its growth into a towering tree in the semiconductor industry.
But for the current ASML, it is no exaggeration to say that it has come to a critical moment of "life and death" for the enterprise.
Even in order to comply with the U.S. chip restrictions, which led to the forced closure of its European factories, ASML increased exports to China in order to obtain better enterprise development.
In the future, with the continuous improvement of China's semiconductor industry technology, China may not be impossible to replace the United States and become a supplier of lithography machine parts for ASML by relying on the advantages of a complete industrial chain.
Moreover, China's semiconductor market has not given up self-research and development under the condition of being restricted, and China's semiconductor lithography machine manufacturing field has also achieved a series of results.
Even the president of ASML highly recognized China's lithography machine technology, believing that it is not a problem to give China time to achieve a breakthrough in high-end lithography machines.
Moreover, at present, the mainland's attitude towards the US restrictions has changed, and it no longer blindly endures the "stuck" of the United States, but uses its own advantageous industries to make a tough counterattack against the West.
The mainland is the world's largest exporter of rare earths, which are important raw materials for the global military industry.
The mainland restricts the export of rare earth elements such as gallium and germanium, which has frustrated the development of the US military industry.
Not only that, the mainland is also the world's largest commodity market, and the United States has a serious dependence on the mainland for foreign trade, and the mainland may use this as an entry point to limit the recovery of the American commodity market.
In the future, as the competition between China and the United States continues to intensify, the competition in the semiconductor industry will become more intense, and it is still unknown who will win in the end.
epilogue
In order to restrict the development of China's semiconductor industry, the United States has imposed chip restrictions on China.
In the latest congressional hearings, a new round of chip restrictions was imposed on China, but ASML did not want to defect and strengthen the export of lithography machines to China.
In the future, the chip competition between China and the United States will be more intense, but with the continuous improvement of China's semiconductor technology, the situation between China and the United States may be reversed in the future.
What do you want to say about the United States' restrictions on the development of China's semiconductor industry? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss.
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References:
"The United States Started on Huawei Again, as soon as the voice fell, the American media found that something was wrong, and the export of Dutch lithography machines to China surged" 2024-05-11 Global Technology
"The United States started on Huawei again, as soon as the words fell, the US media found that something was wrong, and the export of Dutch lithography machines to China surged" 2024-05-11 Qingyun is heard