Recently, the yen has depreciated sharply, and the market has speculated that it is understandable that the Americans are crazy in the election year, but are the Japanese crazy?
Among the many possible speculations, the renminbi could be an important target. But the yuan is not bad, Japan has become like this, the United States and Japan are still gritting their teeth and insisting, obviously it is not so simple, what are they going to do?
Let's first briefly review how the US dollar's attack on Asia unfolded.
Everyone sees the path on the bright side, under the forced blow, the yen depreciates suicidly, and there may be the South Korean won on the side, trying to break through the line of defense of the exchange rates of major Asian currencies.
Some time ago, the yen raised interest rates, first siphoned off some of the yen in Southeast Asia, exacerbated the liquidity tightness, and made the foreign exchange reserves of Southeast Asian countries more vulnerable, and then the yen depreciated sharply, and the Southeast Asian exchange rate defense line may collapse all at once.
If one or two countries can't hold on, the exchange rate collapses, the country opens wide, and the value of assets depreciates sharply, it is likely to bring down the whole of Southeast Asia, as it did in 1997, and then the dollar will take advantage of the weakness and complete a round of harvest.
Everyone knows that Asia is our basic plate, especially Southeast Asia is the largest processing and manufacturing and entrepot trade base for Chinese manufacturing, and Southeast Asia is also the place where the yen is most involved.
At present, Vietnam's exchange rate has plummeted, and it is already in jeopardy.
However, as long as the renminbi holds, Asia as a whole will be able to stabilize. Although the RMB exchange rate fluctuates at present, it is generally stable, and is still hovering between 7.23 and 7.24.
Obviously, even if the Americans burn the yen, they will not be able to move the yuan.
With the exception of the Japanese yen and the Vietnamese dong, other Asian currencies have largely stabilized
Is the Americans' conspiracy bankrupt? Obviously, with the usual urine nature of the Americans, they will not stop there.
At present, the depreciation of the yen has not stopped, the dollar has not cut interest rates, and the Federal Reserve has even threatened to raise interest rates, and this wave of offensive is still continuing.
What is the fundamental reason why the US dollar can't beat the RMB? What are they going to do?
Any currency must have its underlying asset to stabilize its value. The basic plate of the renminbi is the Chinese economy, and as long as the Chinese economy remains stable, the renminbi will not collapse.
The core of China's economy is made in China, as long as China's manufacturing does not fail, China's economy will not have major problems.
However, both China's economy and Chinese manufacturing are highly dependent on foreign trade and exports.
Therefore, the real goal of the Americans is to make China's foreign trade a huge problem at all costs, so they have created a wave of strange incidents.
This is a combination of punches, let's count what bad things Americans have done?
First, the US dollar has raised interest rates violently, tightened global liquidity, reduced international trade activity, and hit the manufacturing industry in global producer countries.
The blow to global trade is very obvious, and a report published on the website of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that global trade in 2023 will fall by a record 5% compared to 2022, about 30.7 trillion US dollars.
Japan and South Korea, the major producers of developed countries, are both running trade deficits, and Germany's manufacturing sector is struggling.
Last year, we also had difficulties with exports, and the manufacturing sector was significantly dragged down.
Second, it will force U.S. investment banks to stop investing in Chinese manufacturing companies and hit the capital adequacy of Chinese manufacturing.
Third, the United States unilaterally identifies China as a developed country, thereby depriving us of our manufacturing advantages as a developing country under the WTO framework.
Fourth, the United States has joined hands with Japan to support Southeast Asia and India to accelerate the relocation of our industrial chains.
Fifth, the United States has joined forces with Mexico to censor and restrict Chinese manufacturing companies from investing in Mexico to enter the U.S. market, and this year prompted Mexico to raise tariffs on more than 500 goods and start a trade war.
Sixth, the suicidal depreciation of the yen will be used to hit the renminbi and reduce the efficiency of the use of the renminbi in the foreign trade system. Because once the renminbi depreciates sharply, other countries will not dare to accept the renminbi, and they will also suffer losses if they use the renminbi to buy Chinese goods.
In international trade, currency stability is very important, and a sharp rise or fall can hurt trade. In particular, since the rise of de-dollarization last year, the proportion of international payments in the renminbi has risen, and cracking down on the renminbi is a direct blow to our trade.
Seventh, promote the depreciation of the yen and improve the competitive advantage of Japanese and South Korean manufacturing industries, especially to reduce the price advantage of Chinese manufacturing. Because the world can directly compete with Chinese manufacturing, Japan and South Korea are not many opponents.
At the same time, it will strike at Vietnam and knock out Mexico and Vietnam, the two largest entrepot trade bases made in China.
This path is very clear, and the depreciation of the yen is the last killer move in this set of combination punches.
Of course, the forced push for the depreciation of the yen will also cause great damage to Japan's financial and economic affairs, and it is more likely to provoke the Japanese people's revolt, so they will not use it easily.
The reason why this last resort was launched in April is also because our exports actually returned to growth in the first quarter of this year, which alarmed Americans.
At present, the world's three major economic and wealth centers, North America, Europe and Asia, of which the overall rise of Asia is the most remarkable. The hegemonic strategy of the United States is to attack whoever takes the lead.
Therefore, the Americans regard Asia as a serious problem and are eager to fight it quickly. If they can set the whole of Asia back 30 years, they will be satisfied.
This invisible war is no worse than a hot war, and it is also more thrilling, and it is far from over, and we still need to be highly vigilant and work hard.