May 15 is coming, will the pension adjustment notice for 2024 be announced? Judging from the requirements of the pension adjustment notice in the past few years, every year it is required to report the pension adjustment plan to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance for the record before the end of May. Therefore, the pension adjustment notice will definitely be published before the end of May. In fact, 2022 and 2023 are pension adjustment notices published on May 26 and May 22, respectively.
Judging from the timing of the announcement of the pension notice, the working days are chosen, which are Thursday and Monday. From now on, there are 13 working days from May 15 to May 31, and if the probability of announcing each day is the same, then the probability of announcing the pension adjustment notice on May 15 is about 1/13.
What is announced in the pension adjustment notice every year?
The pension adjustment notice announced some major requirements for the pension adjustment of the year, of course, these requirements are similar every year, and the main change is the growth ratio. For example:
(1) The time when the pension adjustment starts is from January 1 every year. Of course, in the early years, there were those that started on July 1 and even October 1. Since 2008, the unification has been unification since January 1.
(2) The scope of personnel for pension adjustment. 2024 is the ninth time that the state will uniformly adjust the basic pension of retirees from enterprises, government agencies and institutions. The scope of adjustment mainly refers to those who have gone through the retirement procedures before December 31, 2023 and receive basic pension benefits on a monthly basis. The recipients of the pension insurance benefits of urban and rural residents do not belong to the scope of adjustment due to the essential differences between the two types of pension insurance.
(3) The overall level of pension adjustment. Generally speaking, the overall level is determined by combining the wage growth rate of the previous year, the price growth, and the affordability of the pension insurance fund. In recent years, the aging trend in mainland China has been intensifying, the growth rate of average social wages has been slowing down, and the price growth rate has been relatively stable, so the growth rate of pensions is declining year by year. From 2020 to 2023, the growth rate fell from 5% to 3.8%. The growth rate in 2024 is likely to be between 3.6% ~ 3.8%. It may be lower, but it will be difficult to return to the high growth rate of the past.
(4) The way of pension adjustment. Since 2016, it has been carried out in three ways: quota adjustment, peg adjustment, and appropriate tilt. In 2023, all provinces across the country have basically realized the unification of pension adjustment methods for retirees in enterprises, government agencies and institutions.
The fixed adjustment is the same pension increase for everyone. The peg adjustment is an incentive for overpayment and long-term payment. In particular, the notice of national pension adjustment has required an appropriate increase in the proportion of linked adjustment for two consecutive years. In the future, the payment period is long and the payment base is high, which may be more popular in the pension adjustment. The tilt adjustment is mainly for the elderly and retirees in hardship and remote areas, and the adjustment level can be appropriately raised.
Through the above pension adjustment method, the proportion of people with a lower pension level will be higher, which will help to maintain and increase the value of low-income people's pension treatment. For example, in 2023, the pension of 1,000 yuan in Shandong Province and retirees with a payment period of 15 years can increase by 71.5 yuan, an increase of 7.15%, exceeding the average level of 3.35%.
The rest is mainly the source of funding and the requirements for organization and implementation. Generally speaking, it is required that all localities should do a good job in financial subsidies for pension expenditures to ensure that the pension insurance fund is paid on time and in full.
Can it rise by 150 yuan per capita in 2024?
Judging from the current level of per capita pension treatment in the country, the per capita basic pension is about 3,2300 yuan. Even if the growth rate is 3.8%, the per capita increase will not exceed 130 yuan. Therefore, it is difficult to achieve an increase of 150 yuan per capita.
However, for Beijing, Shanghai, Tibet and other places with high pension levels, an increase of 3.8%, an increase of more than 150 yuan per capita can still be achieved.
In addition, the fact that the per capita cannot rise does not mean that the individual cannot rise. Some people who have paid for a long time and have a high level of pension, as well as elderly retirees and retirees in difficult and remote areas, may also have their pensions increased by more than 150 yuan. #2024年养老金上涨##头条创作挑战赛#