After five years in the industry, my impression of the Beijing Auto Show has always been relatively vague.
Looking back at the past few sessions, due to various obstacles, it seems that it has not played any role as a so-called "weather vane" because it is either cancelled directly or hastily ended after being postponed. However, after experiencing the 18th Beijing Auto Show at the end of last month, the inherent impression was undoubtedly completely broken.
Times are changing, and rules are being reshaped.
At this event, the tide of electrification covers every corner, whether it is an independent brand or a joint venture brand, in the face of an increasingly attractive "cake", trying to stay on the table to share the soup, they have unreservedly taken out the most important "hole card".
Of course, there is no accident, every booth occupies the C position, it must be a new energy vehicle; The most concerned at each booth must be new energy vehicles; Every booth is full of topics, and it must be new energy vehicles. And the biggest meaning I read from this is focused on: "The future of China's auto market has been decided." ”
Whether you accept it or not, you can only embrace change more and more positively. From the perspective of consumers, in the context of the huge manpower, material and financial resources invested by OEMs, new energy vehicles have become a better and rational choice for them.
And this just explains why, in recent times, the overall increase in terminal sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be stronger than expected. However, there will still be fluctuations despite smooth sailing, and the situation has deviated somewhat in the past April.
Month-on-month, it fell
Don't say much, just speak with the results.
According to the terminal report card released by the Passenger Car Association, the production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 802,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.9%.
In contrast, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 785,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 30.0%, but a month-on-month decline of 3.7%; In April, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 674,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, and also a month-on-month decline of 5.7%; Exports of NEV passenger vehicles in April totaled 115,000 units, reflecting a 26.8% y/y increase and a 4.1% m/m decline.
On the other hand, the wholesale penetration rate of NEV passenger car manufacturers reached 39.9% in April, an increase of 6.0 percentage points from 33.9% in April 2023. Among them, the penetration rate of self-owned brand new energy passenger vehicles reached 53.6%.
In April, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 43.7%, an increase of 11.7 percentage points from the 32% penetration rate in the same period last year. Among them, the penetration rate of NEVs among domestic brands reached 66.8%.
After witnessing the above performance, I would like to say: "Although the slight month-on-month decline has exposed certain problems, such as the aggravation of latent sentiment, such as the decline in the vitality of car purchase consumption, but the overall situation is actually insignificant." ”
As a result, there were 11 models with wholesale sales of more than 20,000 passenger cars in April.
The 80,860 units of the BYD Song, 51,170 units of the BYD Qin, 34,832 units of the BYD Seagull, 32,800 units of the BYD Destroyer 05, 31,962 units of the Tesla Model Y, and 30,205 units of the Tesla Model 3 were respectively.
and 27,745 units of the Chery Tiggo 8, 27,245 units of the Nissan Sylphy, 26,368 units of the Chery Tiggo 7, 22,051 units of the BYD Yuan, and 21,509 units of the BYD Han.
It can be seen that new energy vehicles occupy an absolute dominant position, and BYD and Tesla, the two "big devils", have achieved an all-round beating on traditional fuel vehicles.
In addition, it is worth noting that the wholesale sales of pure electric passenger vehicles reached 462,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.8%; In April, the wholesale sales of true plug-in hybrid passenger cars reached 255,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 103% and a month-on-month increase of 10%; Wholesale sales of extended-range passenger cars reached 69,000 units in April, up 64% year-on-year and down 10% month-on-month.
In April, the wholesale sales structure of new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 59% of pure electric vehicles, 32% of true plug-in hybrids, and 9% of range extenders. In contrast, in the same period last year, pure electric vehicles accounted for 72%, true plug-in hybrids accounted for 21%, and range extenders accounted for 7%.
The trend is clearly there.
Perhaps because of the "fuel tank", true plug-in hybrid and extended-range passenger cars are still on the rise. Due to various reasons, pure electric passenger vehicles have fallen into a certain growth bottleneck.
Undoubtedly, the change in share also reflects the change in consumer perception and demand. It is foreseeable that for a long time to come, China's new energy market will definitely go hand in hand with multiple technical routes, rather than a single branch.
Anyway, in my heart, only a brand with a multi-dimensional layout can grow into a "giant" in the true sense. Simply betting on pure electric will eventually meet the upper limit.
Confidence, stronger
At the beginning of this paragraph, some readers will definitely question that after a month-on-month decline in April, China's new energy market this year does not seem to have "exploded" as imagined.
As a rebuttal, we must move out of the May Day holiday just past, I don't know if you have an illusion: everywhere you go, it is crowded.
Taking advantage of the trend, opening the major social platforms, the news of scenic spots, high-speed congestion, and urban congestion can be said to have dominated the major hot search lists.
According to the calculation of the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the entire May Day holiday, the total number of domestic tourists traveled reached 295 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and an increase of 28.2% compared with the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis; The total travel expenditure of domestic tourists was 166.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and an increase of 13.5% on a comparable basis compared with the same period in 2019.
It must be admitted that after a period of silence, as difficulties are gradually overcome, the vitality of consumption is recovering at a speed that is visible to the naked eye. And among them, it must include the car market.
No, on May 6, Beijing time, whether it is Hongmeng Zhixing or ideal, including Zeekr, several new forces have impatiently released good news.
In contrast, according to the blogger "Sun Shaojun", during the May Day holiday, NIO added more than 7,000 new vehicles.
On the other hand, BYD, not to be outdone, also released a price trick again. Following the introduction of a replacement subsidy of up to 8,000 yuan for Dynasty series models, Ocean Network followed suit with a replacement subsidy of up to 10,000 yuan.
This series of preferential policies has undoubtedly brought more benefits to consumers and further enhanced BYD's market competitiveness. In the end, also according to the blogger "Sun Shaojun", the new orders were about 75,000 to 80,000 units.
On the other hand, Xiaomi, which has always been at the peak of traffic, has gained the favor of 11,000 new users during the May Day holiday. As for Denza, it was officially announced that the total number of orders for the 2024 Denza D9 and the all-new Denza N7 has reached 8,322 units.
With the continued desperate rush of the top leaders and the crazy attack on product launches, we have very firm reasons to believe that China's new energy market will definitely stand on a new height this year.
Clearly, the confidence that is coming out is getting stronger.
"The development of new energy vehicles will only run faster and faster, and will not leave us with the opportunity to stop, slow down, and take a breath."
is not apocryphal, the above sentence comes from BYD's "helmsman" Wang Chuanfu. In his eyes, China's new energy vehicle production and sales have ranked first in the world for 9 consecutive years, accounting for more than 60% of the world's total, forming a complete industrial chain with resilience and competitiveness, and is a representative industry for high-quality development.
Therefore, according to Wang Chuanfu's prediction, "the electrification of vehicles will be further deepened, and the monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles may exceed 50% this year." ”
And according to the current trend, the possibility of touching is increasing. So, as the article draws to a close, I ask one last question: When do you think it will be completed? Is it this May? Or is it sometime in the second half of the year?
Everyone is welcome to leave your answers in the comment area.