Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Liang Yi
On May 14, the first trading day after the resumption of trading, the big bull stock Zhengdan shares (300641. SZ) rose nearly 15% in the morning, but closed down 3.69% at 23.00 yuan per share, with a turnover of more than 2.3 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 18.02%.
Zhengdan shares are undoubtedly one of the hottest stocks this year, from April 9 to May 6, the company's stock price rose by 439.05%, and Zhengdan convertible bonds (123106. SZ) has risen by 180.77%.
In addition, Baichuan Co., Ltd. (002455. SZ) and TEDA New Materials (430372.NQ) also performed well.
The recent good stock price performance of related concept stocks is related to the sharp increase in prices due to changes in supply and demand in the TMA market.
It is reported that TMA is mainly used in the production of polyester resins in powder coatings, providing good heat resistance and electrical insulation; It is used to enhance the mechanical properties and heat resistance of plastics; Encapsulation materials for the manufacture of electronic components, providing excellent insulation properties, etc. At present, TMA production capacity is concentrated in the hands of five companies: INEOS in the United States, Polynt Italy, Zhengdan Co., Ltd., Baichuan Co., Ltd., and TEDA New Materials, with an annual production capacity of 70,000 tons, 30,000 tons, 85,000 tons, 40,000 tons, and 30,000 tons in 2023, totaling about 255,000 tons.
The price of TMA products has risen sharply
The company's main business involves the fine chemical industry and the environmental protection new material industry, and the main products include trimellitic anhydride (TMA), trioctyl trimellilate (TOTM), vinyl toluene (VT), tetraxylene, etc. Among them, trimellitic anhydride (TMA) is mainly used in the production of PVC plasticizer trioctyl trimelliate (TOTM).
It is reported that at present, the TMA oligopoly pattern is gradually highlighted, and the production capacity is concentrated in the hands of five companies: INEOS, Polynt Italy, Zhengdan Co., Ltd., Baichuan Co., Ltd., and TEDA New Materials, with an annual production capacity of 70,000 tons, 30,000 tons, 85,000 tons, 40,000 tons, and 30,000 tons in 2023, totaling about 255,000 tons.
Judging from the news, the share price of Zhengdan shares may be related to rumors that INEOS of the United States has permanently stopped the production of trimellitic anhydride production equipment. According to platforms such as stock bars, INEOS stopped supplying to the market in March, and on April 3, INEOS officially announced a permanent suspension of production.
Zhengdan shares recently announced that the company has been concerned about the recent market rumors circulating on the stock bar and other platforms about the permanent closure of its TMA production unit by INEOS, and the company has not directly received the announcement of the permanent suspension of trimellitic anhydride production equipment announced by INEOS in the United States.
Although the listed company could not confirm the authenticity of the relevant rumors, the sudden contraction of market supply has led to a sharp increase in the price of TMA recently, according to the quotation of TMA, the product rose from 17,300 yuan/ton at the end of February to 36,500 yuan/ton on May 6.
A relevant person from the securities department of Zhengdan shares told a reporter from the Times Weekly, "Our side (the securities department) is not clear about the TMA quotation, and we need to ask the sales department specifically, but the product price is on the market, and one customer has a single price." ”
The Times Weekly reporter noticed that the recent rise in the volume and price of TMA also helped Zhengdan shares to achieve results in the first quarter of this year. The company's operating income was 518 million yuan, up 28.80% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 58.9925 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 412.94%.
Guolian Securities Research Report pointed out that the upward trend of TMA prices is quite elastic and sustainable. The actual demand in 2024 can be quantified at about 211,000 tons, and the supply gap will reach 63,000 tons, accounting for about 30% of the total actual demand. Combined with the rigid demand attribute of TMA and no new production capacity in the short term, the high boom cycle of TMA is expected to last for a long time.
Talking about whether there are plans to expand production this year, the above-mentioned person said that if there are relevant plans, they will be disclosed in a timely manner. It is worth noting that in 2023, Zhengdan TMA will involve a production capacity of about 85,000 tons/year, and the capacity utilization rate will only be 69.75%.
TEDA New Materials announced on May 8 that according to the company's strategic development plan, in order to further improve the company's competitiveness, the company plans to invest in the expansion of "an annual output of 30,000 tons of trimellitic anhydride and 1,500 tons of benzephthalic acid production project". Specific information such as construction scale and total investment is subject to final approval.
TMA concept stocks are on the rise
Similarly, the recent market performance of the other two TMA concept stocks, TEDA New Materials and Baichuan Shares, has also been strong.
From the beginning of April to May 9, the share price of Baichuan shares rose sharply from 5.57 yuan / share to 12.89 yuan / share, an increase of 131.42%. Baichuan shares fell today, with a turnover rate of 26.09% throughout the day, a turnover of 1.558 billion yuan, and an amplitude of 13.87%.
The share price of TEDA New Materials rose more than 2 times in April. On April 12, the company's share price started to rise, rising as much as 94.88% on the day, closing at 12.18 yuan / share, and closing at 18.72 yuan / share on April 30.
After the May Day holiday, TEDA New Materials continued to soar. The three trading days from May 6 to 8 rose by about 112.63%, of which the increase reached 68.47% on May 7. On May 9, TEDA New Materials was forced to suspend trading due to less than 2 market makers, and the stock price fluctuated greatly in the previous three trading days.
The Times Weekly reporter noticed that a number of listed companies in the chemical raw materials and new materials sectors have recently been asked by investors whether they are involved in the production and sales of TMA.
Kaisheng New Materials(301069. SZ) said on the interactive platform that the company has not directly produced trimellitic anhydride (TMA) products, and the company currently purchases trimellitic anhydride products for the synthesis of trimellitic anhydride yl chloride products, which are mainly used in medicine, medical treatment, new materials and other fields.
Jianxin Co., Ltd. (300107.SZ) said that the company's main products have nothing to do with trimellitic anhydride; Jiangtian Chemical (300927.SZ) said on the interactive platform that the company does not produce trimellitic anhydride.
Huajin Co., Ltd. (000059. SZ) said on the investor interactive platform on May 13 that the company's trimethylenebenzene is mainly used for the production of trimellitic anhydride (TMA) and the synthesis of homotetramethylbenzene; As of the end of April, the company's sales volume of this product accounted for 28.91% of the total market consumption.
Bide Pharma (688073.SH) responded to investors that the company sells such (trimellitic anhydride) products.